GBPUSD
GU opened the week at 16020, making its way to a high of 161234 ahead of the release of the first installment of domestic data which was forecasted to show an improvement across all of its economic figures. However, the results of weaker figures, surprised the markets, triggering a major sell off after the creation of a double top at the highs.
This then saw the pair drop dramatically by nearly 200 pips from 161197 to a new low of 159224. Following this, was the announcement by the BOE in regards to the Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Facility, which once again showed no change. This provided a small bound of relief from its stagnant position, pushing GU back to 159973 from a low of 159133. However, this was short lived as sellers, stepped in upon its approach to 160, pushing price back towards the mid range, closing the NY session at 159524.
This then saw the pair drop dramatically by nearly 200 pips from 161197 to a new low of 159224. Following this, was the announcement by the BOE in regards to the Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Facility, which once again showed no change. This provided a small bound of relief from its stagnant position, pushing GU back to 159973 from a low of 159133. However, this was short lived as sellers, stepped in upon its approach to 160, pushing price back towards the mid range, closing the NY session at 159524.
Level to Watch:
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159825
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What to look for:
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BUY: 160009 (break above)
SELL: 159228(break below)
A break above 160009 will promote another bullish attempt to the topside and a break above this level will bring the following targets into view: 160401, 160821 and 161238.
Alternatively,if GU breaks below 159825, look for an entry below at 159228. A continuation below this level will see the following targets come into play: 159072, 158664 and 158230. |
Bullish Levels:
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T1: 160401, T2: 160821, T3: 161238
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Bearish Levels
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T1: 159072, T2: 158864, T3: 158230
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Potential Catalysts:
| CPI, PPI, DCLG House Price Index, Retail Price Index, (Oct 15), Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings (Oct 16), Retail Sales (Oct 17) |
EURUSD
EU started week in positive form, opening the Asia session stronger at 135637. However, price remained locked in consolidation until the 9th October when EU finally broke down, falling from a high of 136041 to a low of 134850 , where support was eventually found. EU once again attempted to continue the downtrend, however support was found upon its approach towards the mid 134800 region. This then took price back up towards 135810, which subsequently met with rejection, taking price back towards the 76% level (135322). EU settled at 135400 towards the close of the NY session.
With the ECB once re-iterating a subdued outlook for the Euro zone economy, this does support the ECB's view for a slow recovery. However in the meantime, EU along with the other majors will continue to look at the developments in the US, in order to direct its more immediate move. Look for re-tests in this upper region, along with any sign of weakness for short opportunities. Should EU continue with a move higher, this will still keep the pair within a corrective view.
With the ECB once re-iterating a subdued outlook for the Euro zone economy, this does support the ECB's view for a slow recovery. However in the meantime, EU along with the other majors will continue to look at the developments in the US, in order to direct its more immediate move. Look for re-tests in this upper region, along with any sign of weakness for short opportunities. Should EU continue with a move higher, this will still keep the pair within a corrective view.
Level to Watch:
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135660
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What to look for:
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BUY: 135810 (break above)
SELL: 135173 (break below)
A break above 1355660 will see EU attempt another move higher into the 136 area. This may be a potential topping area should a catalyst present itself.A break above 135810 will open up the following targets: 136010, 136286 and 136774.
Alternatively, a break through 135347 (DP) will see 135323(23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 134985, 134442 and 133956. |
Bullish Levels:
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T1: 136010, T2: 136286 T3: 136774
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Bearish Levels
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T1: 134985, T2: 134442 T3: 133956
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Potential Catalysts:
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Eurogroup Meeting, Industrial Production (Oct 14), EcoFin Meeting, ZEW Survey (Oct 15), CPI (Oct 16)
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AUDUSD
Once again it was a top week for AU who once again defied the odds with a strong finish at the very end. However, this follows the significant drop made during the week, in response to a weaker employment change figure, which saw AU fall from the mid 94 area to a low of 93887. However, this was short lived once buyers came on to the scene, pushing AU back to the highs post data. Locked in a top consolidation around 94712, AU closed the NY session at 94640.
The current resilience of the AUD, does suggest further upward movement towards a top, with the 95 area being the first point of resistance. With the RBA meeting minutes due later this week along with a few other economic data figures, the AUD is bound to react to its domestic data and new commentary issued by the RBA.
The current resilience of the AUD, does suggest further upward movement towards a top, with the 95 area being the first point of resistance. With the RBA meeting minutes due later this week along with a few other economic data figures, the AUD is bound to react to its domestic data and new commentary issued by the RBA.
Level to Watch:
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94723
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What to look for:
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BUY: 948500 (break above)
SELL:94300 (break below)
AU needs to test 94723. If this level breaks, then a long entry at 948500 will confirm bullish moment and bring the following targets into view: 95004, 95396 and 95969.
Alternatively, a break through 94435(DP) will see AU attempt a move lower with the next support level at 94458 (23%). A break through 94340 will open up the following targets: 94070, 93500 and 93120. |
Bullish Levels:
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T1: 95004, T2: 95396 , T3: 95969
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Bearish Levels
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T1: 94070, T2: 93500, T3: 93120
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Potential Catalysts:
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Home Loans (Oct 14), RBA Meeting Notes, Westpac Leading Index (Oct 15), NAB Business Confidence (Oct 17), RBA Speech (Oct 18)
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USDJPY
UJ opened the week at
97197, starting the week with a decline to 9655. From here UJ then engaged in steep uptrend, taking price from a low of 96556 to a high of 98587. The pair offered very little pullback as it rallied alongside the US indexes who closed the week in positive territory.
With the US continuing to sort out its Fiscal Crisis, the USD remains on tentative alert in preparation for the announcement of an outcome. The low of 96556. DS3 became the turning point in the prevailing downtrend, which upon reaching this level, saw UJ reverse its position back north in line with current market sentiment. A continuation of its bullish form this week will be dependent on the upcoming developments from the US government.
With the US continuing to sort out its Fiscal Crisis, the USD remains on tentative alert in preparation for the announcement of an outcome. The low of 96556. DS3 became the turning point in the prevailing downtrend, which upon reaching this level, saw UJ reverse its position back north in line with current market sentiment. A continuation of its bullish form this week will be dependent on the upcoming developments from the US government.
Level to Watch:
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98427
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What to look for:
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BUY: 98587 (break above)
SELL: 98000 (break below)
A break above 98427 will promote bullish momentum level with a long entry above 98587. This will open up to the following targets:
Alternatively, a break through 97387 (DP) will see the first test of support at 97071 at the 23% level (current position) with a break through this level exposing the
following targets: 96928, 96454 and 960183
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Bullish Levels:
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T1: 98971, T2: 99400, T3: 100225
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Bearish Levels
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T1: 97695, T2: 96870, T3: 96422
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Potential Catalysts:
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Industrial Production (Oct 15), MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Market Index, Fed Beige Book (Oct 16), Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, JPY Foreign Bond Investment, JPY Foreign Bond Investment in Stocks (Oct 17), BOJ Speech, CB Leading Indicator (Oct 18)
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