GBPUSD
GU started the week opening at 161699, moving steadily in a tight range
between 161560 and 161803, before breaking out higher on the 22nd Oct to a high
of 162118. This then led to GU reaching a new high of 161560 on the 23rd October which met with resistance, resulting in a sell off from the top to a low of 16189. This then saw GU make another move to the upside, reaching a high of 162224, which upon forming an inverted pinbar, led to another sell off back to 161370. However, once again, this was short-lived with GU finding support and bouncing back within range to 162461 following after the decline.
With this high a target for the sellers, GU again made its way back to towards the mid 161 range
finding support at 161499 and closing the NY session at 161652. In regards to upcoming price movement, the weekly chart does
suggest the potential for GU to extend higher and
a break over the 162 price level will be key in determining if this will
be the set direction. However this is not the same view on the smaller time
frames which, actually show GU ending the
week towards the lower end of its
range spectrum closing the NY session at 38%. This suggests a possible move lower may come
first.
Level to Watch:
|
161838
|
What to look for:
|
BUY: 162239 (break above)
SELL: 161726 (break below)
A break above 162239 will promote another bullish attempt north, having first cleared 162468 (previous day high). This will then place the following targets in view: 162301, 162677 and 163190.
Alternatively, a break below 161726 will see 161497 (previous day low) as the first test of support. Breaking this level will then expose the following targets: 161439 followed by 160099 and then 160620. |
Bullish Levels:
|
T1: 162301, T2: 162677, T3: 16319
|
Bearish Levels
|
T1: 161439, T2: 160099, T3: 160620
|
Potential
Catalysts: | Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending to Individuals (29 Oct), Nationwide Housing Prices (31 Oct), Markit Manufacturing PMI (1 Nov) |
EURUSD
EU started the week at 136828 resuming the
tight from the previous week. This continued into the new week with the 22nd October finally seeing GU
finally break the range with a prominent breakout candle, following by a sequence of bullish candles to a top of 137918. Price then maintained at the highs
locked in a tight consolidation that saw price dip slightly to finding support
at 137425. Once reaching the 138 price
level, a heavy reluctance set in which
saw all attempts for price to break out, meet with sellers, resulting in the
containment of price at current levels moving into the next day with an
advancement to a new high of 138300.
This then led to the break down with the formation of a bearish marubozu taking
price to a low of 137787 and then back
north to the 138 price level where EU closed the NY session.
Currently, EU
remains quite high, however a further move higher cannot be ruled out given the bullish momentum behind the Euro, which is currently suspending the pair at the top of its range.
However, with concerns voiced from European officials regarding the detrimental
effects of the appreciating currency on recovering European economies, this may help in capping further movement north at the higher key levels in the near future.
Level to Watch:
|
137927
|
What to look for:
|
BUY: 138181 (break below)
SELL: 137738 (break below)
A break above 138181 will see the first test of resistance at 138318 (previous day high). Breaking above this level will see an extension of the bullish run in line with with a long entry above the previous high. This
will then open up to the following targets: 138270 followed by 138560 and then 138862. Alternatively, a break below 137875 (23%) will see the first test of support at 137738. Breaking below this price will set the following targets: 137633, followed by 137326 and then 137050. |
Bullish Levels:
|
T1: 138270, T2: 138560 T3: 138862
|
Bearish Levels
|
T1: 137633, T2: 137326 T3: 137050
|
Potential Catalysts:
|
GER Retail Sales (28 Oct), GER Retail Sales (29 Oct), GER Unemployment Rate, GER Unemployment Change (30 Oct),
Consumer Confidence, Business Climate, Services Sentiment, CPI, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, Consumer Price Index - Core, Unemployment Rate (31 Oct) |
AUDUSD
AU started the week at 96698, also resuming
the consolidation from the previous week, continuing in a tight consolidation. The 22nd October saw AU
break out to the topside, reaching a high of 97302 before meeting with
rejection, bringing AU back to the 97 price level. The 22nd October saw AU re-attempt another move higher, which saw AU advance slightly to a top of
97575, meeting with rejection and leading to a decline back to 96310. AU then managed one last attempt north, breaking above the 76% level to 96703, which faced rejection at DR1 (96639). From here, AU proceeded with a decline back to 96207
(DP) where it paused before breaking through and finding support at 95713, closing
the NY session at 95816.
With AU closing the NY session at the lows, there is a good
possibility that a re-test and rejection of 96113 (76%) will see AU capped from
further gains with a view to target the lower levels towards 95. However
breaking above the 76% level, will inspire another attempt and re-test above 96.
We have a speech from the RBA Governor due early this week which may provide
some inspiration for upcoming intra-day price movement.
Level to Watch:
|
95967
|
What to look for:
|
BUY: 96236 (break above)
SELL: 96715 (break below)
A break above 95967 will promote a bullish setup with an entry above 96236. This will then open up the following targets: 966468, followed by 96727 and then 97120. Breaking above 97 will then see AU extend the daily trend with targets above the 97400 area.
Alternatively, a break through 95838(23%) will see the first test of support at 95715. Breaking this level will then target the following levels: 95669 followed by 95172 and then 94658.
|
Bullish Levels:
|
T1: 96468, T2: 96727, T3:97120
|
Bearish Levels
|
T1: 95669, T2: 95172, T3: 94658
|
Potential Catalysts:
|
RBA Governor Speech (28 Oct), HIA New Home Sales (MoM), Building Permits (31 Oct), CNY Manufacturing PMI (1 Nov)
|
USDJPY
UJ commenced the week in positive form,
opening at 97859, climbing steadily to 98236 before pulling back slightly to
98159. From here, it continued to range with uncertainty until breaking out higher, reaching a top
of 98359. This then saw price hover at the highs moving into the 22nd October until
an attempt to break lower resulted in UJ reaching and rejecting a low of
97853 but bouncing quickly back to 98197. Printing a bullish candle, UJ attempted to follow through to the upside, however this notion was quickly abandoned
with the formation of an engulfing bearish candle. This provided the first signal
of weakness, which then led the way to a decline, finding initial support at 97128, pausing momentarily and forming a
short consolidation until finally breaking
lower to 96936 where final support was found. From here, UJ then took a short
step back up to 97374 where it closed the NY session with a final price of 97359.
With the US dominating the economic calendar this week, we should see some movement
on this pair. Key events to focus on include: USD Fed Interest Rate, USD Pace
of Treasury Purchase Program,, Pace of MBS Purchase Program, Fed Monetary
Policy Statement and Press Conference
Level to Watch:
|
97389
|
What to look for:
|
BUY: 97688 (break above)
SELL: 96936 (break below)
A break above 97389 will see 97511 (76%) as the first point of resistance. A break above 97688 (previous day high) will promote a bullish setup which will open up to to the following targets: 97593, 97815 and then 980567.
Alternatively, a break through 97398 (DP) will see the first test of support at 97113 (23%) and breaking this level will open the following targets: 97094, followed by 96923 and then 96721.
|
Bullish Levels:
|
T1: 97591, T2: 97812, T3: 98037
|
Bearish Levels
|
T1: 97094, T2: 96923, T3: 96721
|
Potential Catalysts:
|
USD Industrial Production (MoM), USD Pending Home Sales (YoY), USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business
Index (28 Oct), USD PPI (YoY), USD Retail Sales, USD Business Inventories, USD CB Leading Indicator (MoM), USD Consumer Confidence, USD Fed Interest Rate, USD Pace of Treasury Purchase Program,, Pace of MBS Purchase Program, Fed Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (30 Oct), Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (31 Oct), Markit Manufacturing PMI, ISM Prices Paid and ISM Manufacturing PMI (1 Nov) |
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