Trade Recommendations: WC 16 Sept 2013

GBPUSD

Once again bullish sentiment continued for GU which saw the pair relentlessly climb over 250 pips from its opening price of 156156 at the start of the week. The move was further supported by strong domestic data, which accelerated price movement north and was further fuelled by a weaker US Retail Sales figure which promoting a strong weekly finish, placing GU as the top performer for the week. With 160 now in view, movement towards 160203 has now become a key level for observation.  Currently price sits comfortably at DR2 and only upon a clear break lower, will a bearish setup come into play, which will also confirm top resistance..

Level to Watch:	158585
What to look for:	BUY:  158585 (break above) SELL: 158420(break below) A break above 158585 will promote further bullish momentum  with the first test sitting at 158841 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will then bring the following levels into view:  159100 (DR1), 159550 (DR2) and 160200 (DR3). However, breaking above DR3 will promote a continuation into the 160 region with 160500 as the next target. Alternatively, a bearish scenario will need to see a break through the previous day's high of 158841 followed by a break lower from 158585 (76%). This will then appoint DP as the next support base at 158420. Breaking lower from DP will see 158013 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish momentum exposing the lower levels: 157690 (DS1), then 157252 (DS2) and finally 156844 (DS3).
Bullish Levels:	T1: 159100,  T2: 159550, T3: 160200
Bearish Levels	T1: 157690, T2: 157252, T3: 156844
Potential Catalysts:	CPI and PPI (Sept 17), BOE Minutes, MPC Vote Cut/Hike (Sept 18), Retail Sales (Sept 19) and Public Sector Borrowing (Sept 20)

 

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EURUSD

It was a positive week for EU, as risk appetite set in, supporting a 130 pip rise over the next few days.  Although, the week was light on data, EU still managed to break through the 132 region, testing  higher key levels above 133.  With the European economy recovering at a moderate pace, alongside current uncertain political and social activities in different regions of the Euro area, it is possible that EU may once again seek a resistance level as it revisits the old highs. While price movement was not  as smooth as some of its counterparts, this new week now sees 134 as a target for resistance/continuation.

Level to Watch:	133051
What to look for:	BUY:  1333051 (break above) SELL: 132900 (break below) A break above  133051 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test 133211 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view:  133260 (DR1) followed by 133589 (DR2) and then 133990 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will then bring 134301 as the next target.  Alternatively,  a break through the previous day's high of 133211 will then need to break support at the 133051 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 132900. A confirmed break through DP will see 132691 (23%) re-tested  with stronger bearish momentum exposing 132514 (DS1), then 132144 (DS2) and finally 131808 (DS3).
Bullish Levels:	T1: 133260,  T2: 133589, T3: 133990
Bearish Levels	T1: 132514,  T2: 132144  T3: 131808
Potential Catalysts:	CPI (Sept 16), ZEW Survey (Sept 17), Consumer Confidence (Sept 20)

   

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AUDUSD

AU ranked as one of the bottom performers amongst the majors last week as it retraced its gains, finishing the week only 40 pips higher from its Asia open.  No doubt that the weaker than expected Employment Change figure coupled with the higher Unemployment Rate played a significant part in containing price, which resulted in an immediate response of a 100 pip move lower.  However, with price now back above 92, it is clear that AU remains within the correction formed on the 30^th August from a low of 88918. This has so far resulted in a 400 pip bounce back north as it once again re-visits the 93 range. The fact that USD weakness had a minimal effect on the pair towards the end of the week, does suggest that perhaps the prevailing bearish view may start to resurface soon. With the current scenario unchanged, it is still expected that sellers continue to be poised at the higher key levels. This should at contain price movement until a catalyst can break AU out of its range. 

Level to Watch:	92608
What to look for:	BUY: 92725 (break above) SELL:92962 (break below) A break above  92608 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test 92725 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view:  93200 (DR1) followed by 94003 (DR2) and then 94493 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will then bring 195201 as the next target. Alternatively,  a break through the previous day's high of 92725 will then need to see support broken at 92608 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 92692 . A confirmed break through DP will see 92345 (23%) re-tested  with stronger bearish momentum exposing 91875 (DS1), then 91389 (DS2) and finally 90586 (DS3).
Bullish Levels:	T1: 93200,  T2: 94003 , T3: 94493
Bearish Levels	T1: 91875,  T2: 91389,  T3: 90214
Potential Catalysts:	RBA Minutes (Sept 17), Westpac Leading Index (Sept 18), RBA Bulletin (Sept 19)

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USDJPY

It was a positive start for UJ, opening near 70 pips higher at 99695, from NY's close. However upon the release of weaker US retail sales, UJ reversed its bullish position from a high of 99969 ending the week lower at 99354.  With the US tapering decision expected to be announced later this week, the event holds potential as a major catalyst for USD and the majors alike. Currently UJ is sitting  around the 23% level and should this level hold, it is possible that we may see market sentiment turn in favour of the US dollar as anticipation builds moving closer to the US Fed announcement.

Level to Watch:	99784
What to look for:	BUY:  99969 (break above) SELL: 99399 (break below) A break above  99784 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test 99969 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view:  99850 (DR1) followed by 100354 (DR2) and then 100803 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will then bring 101205 as the next target. Alternatively,  a break through the previous day's high of 99969 will then need to see support broken at 99784 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 99399. A confirmed break through DP will see 99371 (23%) re-tested  with stronger bearish momentum exposing 98913 (DS1), then 98472 (DS2) and finally 97883 (DS3).
Bullish Levels:	T1: 100354,T2: 100803, T3: 101328
Bearish Levels	T1: 98913,  T2: 98472,   T3: 97883
Potential Catalysts:	CPI, Long Term TIC flows, Housing Market Index (Sept 17), Building Permits and Housing States, Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Monetary Policy Statement (Sept 18) BOJ Speech (Sept 20)

            

* Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post  are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com..