GBPUSD
GU has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the month propelled by strong domestic data in conjunction with USD weakness. This has resulted in a significant bullish move which has seen GU move up over 5c over the course of this month. With current uncertainty revolving around the Pound and the US dollar this, it is possible that we may see an extension of the decline that commenced towards the end of the last last week's NY session.
If GU is looking at a continuation lower, the first support level would lie at 155431 (DS1) followed by 154999 (DS2). However should GU fall though both support levels, then a move lower to 154405 (DS3) will come into view. Alternatively, a break higher will see a move back to 156015 (DP) which will be the next level to watch. A further break above this level will see immediate resistance lie at 156404 (76%) which may contain GU within a bearish continuation trend. However, breaking 76% will promote further movement north, bringing the following targets into contention: 156441(DR1) followed by a re-test of 15706(DR2). If GU successfully breaks above 157, the next target will be 157447(DR3).
Similar to the Pound, the Euro ended the week sitting at the top of its range reaching a high of 134514 which surpassed the high of the most recent previous peak at 134148.
From its current position of 133764, a continuation north will see the next target at 134 – 134146 (DR1) followed by 134610 (DR2). If EU breaks above 134610, a move towards 134830 will be a top level to watch for in regards to intra-day top resistance. However should it continue with its retracement south from last week, this will see movement back to 133549(76%) for support. If supported at 76%, this will keep EU within the scope of a bullish sentiment. Alternatively, a break lower from here will see 133400 (DP) re-tested once again for support. Breaking DP will promote further movement south while also confirming a rejection of the 134 region. From here the next support levels below DP lie at 133263 (33%) followed by 13315 (23%). A fall through 23% will expose greater decline with targets at 133098(DS1), followed by 132640(DS2) and then 132340(DS3).
If GU is looking at a continuation lower, the first support level would lie at 155431 (DS1) followed by 154999 (DS2). However should GU fall though both support levels, then a move lower to 154405 (DS3) will come into view. Alternatively, a break higher will see a move back to 156015 (DP) which will be the next level to watch. A further break above this level will see immediate resistance lie at 156404 (76%) which may contain GU within a bearish continuation trend. However, breaking 76% will promote further movement north, bringing the following targets into contention: 156441(DR1) followed by a re-test of 15706(DR2). If GU successfully breaks above 157, the next target will be 157447(DR3).
EURUSD
Similar to the Pound, the Euro ended the week sitting at the top of its range reaching a high of 134514 which surpassed the high of the most recent previous peak at 134148.
From its current position of 133764, a continuation north will see the next target at 134 – 134146 (DR1) followed by 134610 (DR2). If EU breaks above 134610, a move towards 134830 will be a top level to watch for in regards to intra-day top resistance. However should it continue with its retracement south from last week, this will see movement back to 133549(76%) for support. If supported at 76%, this will keep EU within the scope of a bullish sentiment. Alternatively, a break lower from here will see 133400 (DP) re-tested once again for support. Breaking DP will promote further movement south while also confirming a rejection of the 134 region. From here the next support levels below DP lie at 133263 (33%) followed by 13315 (23%). A fall through 23% will expose greater decline with targets at 133098(DS1), followed by 132640(DS2) and then 132340(DS3).
AUDUSD
Unlike the other majors against the USD, AU commenced a decline from the start of the week to the very end, without much relief. When looking at the 4 hour chart, the high of 92326(19th Aug) aligns closely with the high of 92204 (12th Aug) confirming a double top upon the break of 91013(DR2). Last week, AU closed the last NY session positioned around 76% and should 90309(76%) succeed in containing AU within its prominent bearish trend, a move back towards 90 (strong psychological support level) will be next in sight.
AU has already broken this level recently, which promoted a re-test of the mid 89 region once again. If AU manages another successful attempt to break 90 and then then 89416(DS1), the next target lower will be 88784. Breaking both support levels, a re-test of the low made on the 2nd Aug 88473 will be the next target. This will be followed by a further attempt to reach a new low below 88, with 87585(WS2) as a supported bottom.
AU has already broken this level recently, which promoted a re-test of the mid 89 region once again. If AU manages another successful attempt to break 90 and then then 89416(DS1), the next target lower will be 88784. Breaking both support levels, a re-test of the low made on the 2nd Aug 88473 will be the next target. This will be followed by a further attempt to reach a new low below 88, with 87585(WS2) as a supported bottom.
USDJPY
UJ ended the week retracing from the recent high above 99 upon weaker US New Home Sales figures. This left UJ sitting just above DP which still places the pair within the parameters of a continuation of the uptrend formed last week.
Within the immediate view, a retracement back to 98440(DP) can be seen as a potential support level which may send UJ back north towards resistance at 98964(76%). Should this level beak higher, a target of 991527 will be opened followed by 99589(DR2).However, caution is advised upon any move higher towards 99 -100 as this area may be met with sellers determined to restrain UJ from making any significant progress north. Therefore my bias for this pair would be to in favour of seeking shorting opportunities upon resistance/rejection at higher key levels. Alternatively, a break lower near current levels (from DP) will see movement south with the 97 region within view. The first target sits at 97928(DS1) followed by 97109(DS2) and then 96676(DS3).
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