tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2228388512084269352024-03-20T04:17:57.291-07:00LiveForexTrading.info Market Analysis Forex Market Analysis For The Coming Week from LiveForexTrading.org
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-19037926293841045742013-11-05T14:30:00.000-08:002013-12-08T09:13:16.128-08:00Market Analysis: WC 4th November 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
Last week saw US stocks mixed and Gold trading lower, taking the opposite side of the rising DXY index. In the FX markets, the USD found some strength sending the majors against the USD, obtained from positive economic dat<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: start; white-space: nowrap;"> </span>a results, sending the majors against USD down during the last NY session. This week sees another round of important data for the majors including the ECB who are due to take the stage with their economic forecasts alongside focus on the US and possible tapering in the month ahead. Central banks such as the ECB, RBA and BOE will also release Interest Rate Decisions and offer insight into current domestic economic conditions with their Monetary Policy Statements.</div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-align: justify;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GPBUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZym9Hmxrw4k-u9ts7F0Acd-BqUjK14oVHz6Ad_wlirZSD7FSshwFS5QaO2oc_YxMWBkWJQOu2qMt4eLkXgcCPXOwdYhVQwNCYjHgqOoQW3_L0CLeIMHKlt-Z7h1Hzsqctckp2MNUgnE/s1600/gbpusdh1+4+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNaOwmKewycA4jxaaRGpA06jiLjG_i1hmE-1iiSqQ1ZrVy_b_dLX_TUBJ0xPULwYiWiQJ4QtITScg_1I70Z0Zv_dxFSsbzEafVT8CAMaqzfdXDbwQs97-xi8kadE0D6xnzDg4hyqOxL5w/s1600/gbpusdh1+2+nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNaOwmKewycA4jxaaRGpA06jiLjG_i1hmE-1iiSqQ1ZrVy_b_dLX_TUBJ0xPULwYiWiQJ4QtITScg_1I70Z0Zv_dxFSsbzEafVT8CAMaqzfdXDbwQs97-xi8kadE0D6xnzDg4hyqOxL5w/s320/gbpusdh1+2+nov.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcq78SnT33yhwMWr3G37x5txa6J4g5ZBXpZ9-XHwalvK_yTEbIhLzW0uok6JsIOlVPboIePQSsnFbj1zTgQ8MZ9gXDlmMxxNOWsZtusWfk42wNxVWkxxaSxS0jZcjqqAJTO0j3Ss88m4/s1600/gbpusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">GU started the week opening at 161610 moving to a high of 162072 during the start of the Asia session, which met with strong rejection taking price down to a low of 161349 within the next 3 hourly candles. From here a new base was created, prompting a continuation with the attempt to form a bearish marubozu, but instead formed a bearish candle (high of 161431 and low of 160364). Rejecting at the low, GU then closed the candle higher at 160949. From here, GU then re-grouped at current levels forming another lower base around 160804, leading to a decline to a low of 160234. Price hovered in this area first before moving slightly higher, meeting once again with the bottom of the previous higher base on two occasions, creating a double top at 160681 on the 31st October. Following through from an inverted pinbar printed at the top, GU then broke lower through the 76% level (160532) in the form of a bearish marubozu. From here, price dropped even lower to DP (160326), aligning once again with the previous support level. The 1st November saw price create a bear move upon the formation of a bearish marubozu (high of 160389 and low of 160083), leading the way to a descent to DS1 and to target 1 at 160004. Price paused momentarily before continuing on in the form of another bearish marubozu (high of 160062 and low of 159520)indicating that the move was still in play, and a continuation lower was the next step. This saw GU then reach the next target at DS2 (159709). However this level still did not mark the completion of the move, as price once again paused for 2 candles before attempts to create support followed with a dip to 159320 (around DS3 and T3). Failing to hold, another surge of selling occurred taking GU to close the NY session just under this target at 159211.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The week commencing the 21st October, saw GU contained within a range between 162255 – 161143 following its decline from the double top formed on the 23rd October. The 4 hour, we can see the same pattern but in reverse, with GU commencing a decline from the 3rd October and finding support around 159578 (MP), to reversing back north on the 17th October, reaching a high of 162244 on the 18th October, in line with the previous peak. This also shows price suspended near the top region of price movement on both the 1 hour and 4 hour while the daily still reflects GU locked in a bull trend from the 10th July with price not making higher highs, but rather settling back in line with the previous peak formed at the beginning of October. The descent initiated on the 24th October shows price replicating the ascension from the 22nd October, with a complete fill of the whole bull move to the point of origin. This then saw price being locked within range following the rejection of the mid 162 area which subsequently led to a fall of nearly 100 pips the very next day, breaking the bullish momentum for the moment.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">When looking at current price on the 4 hour chart we can see price has now made a complete retracement back to the previous base, completing a double top 162560, with price now aligned with the bottom at 159106. With price current poised around DP (159637), movement does seem to favour the downside in the more immediate time frames. Only a move back above 160 would place GU within a bullish view. However, a break below 159 will confirm further movement south, with price targeting the 158 (DS2). Looking at GU on the daily we can see the bull move instigated from the 9th June from a low of 148648 now reach the top base from the start of the decline on the 3rd January, having surpassed the 3 peaks and breached the 157 price level as it made its way back towards 160 and higher. This highly reflects the shift in sentiment driven by the output of positive economic data that has seen support the progress of the UK recovery since the reign of Mark Carney as the new BOE Governor. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Relating this to price movement, <span style="background-color: white;">it does place GU within the context of a bullish view on the longer time fram</span>es and a breach over 162568 will see GU continue the bull run higher. However, in the interim, this does not hold the same view. When observing price movement on the 1 hour we can see GU in a clear decline from 162560 on the 23rd October once having broken lower through 161208 which confirmed the direction of price movement, which saw the steady decline back between 160130 - 160454, where price paused before resuming lower on the 1st November towards 159, reaching a low of 159106. Currently price sits just under DP and a break below 159405 followed by a break below 159081 will see GU test and attempt to break the 159 support level in an effort to reach the lower targets positioned in the 158 area. Given that the higher time frames are highly suggestive of a different perspective of price movement, I would expect that any move lower towards these new lows will be met with strong buying interest, especially if support from fundamentals remain in place. Confirmation will be reliant on a re-test and rejection of the lows which should push the pair back towards 160 with the highs back in view. However, this may take time, given the global uncertainty that looms and the highly reactive market which has seen price react impulsively to data first, then to the current market environment second. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">So this now bring us to the factors are responsible for the move. Firstly the US and the ramifications of recent events that have placed the US in a position of uncertainty as market participants opted against backing the US in light of rating downgrades, the recent fiscal crisis, government shutdown, weaker economic data figures i.e. NFP and of course the September tapering that did not go ahead. The lack of certainty behind the US recovery, has been the strongest catalyst more recently, responsible for the aggressive bullish moves against the USD, witnessed since the FOMC announced that they would not commence tapering in September as widely expected. However, will this change now that "tapering" has been brought back to the table? What will happen if the US Fed do actually commence tapering in December as some are already speculating? Will it re-ignite a backing for the USD? For certain, the movements in the US will play a key role in influencing direction as already seen with the overbearing weakness in the USD that fuelled the majors to these new highs not too long ago. For GU, this was just an added incentive on the back of stronger economic data such as the progressive improvement in the Claimant Change, reduction in public sector net borrowing (€9.368B vs. €10.808B), increase in Mortgage Approvals (43k vs. 38.6k) and improvements in retail sales and the GDP figures which showed an improvement from 0.8% from 0.7%. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Looking at the UK economy, the reign of new BOE Governor Mark Carney, has been well received as positive changes in the UK economy align with his arrival and show support to the UK recovery. The optimism behind the recovery has even brought speculation in regards to the nation actually meeting their targets ahead of their intended timeframe. The most recent minutes released by the BOE, reflected improvements in employment, household and businesses which was further supported by Governor Carney in one of his latter press conference speeches, he stated that the improvements of the economy over the last two quarters has helped in positioning the UK towards the "top end" of major economies. This does indicate not only the capability for the UK to meet its goals but also that external environmental factors have not been a major inhibitor in its recent progression. As such, this also strengthens the idea that the UK will consider increasing rates and adjusting stimulus in the near future. The conservative approach that the BOE has adopted in creating reforms to reshape their economy has also seen the UK adhere strictly to its own indicators as performance measures, rather than market expectancy or reliance of preliminary data to re-adjust their decision. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">This is particularly seen with last figures, which once again saw the UK make no changes to the rate or asset purchasing program, affirming the UK's stance in holding the withdrawal of stimulus in light of stronger evidence of economic growth. This is, along with the 7% unemployment target remaining intact as the major indicator. Within the August forecast, a modest improvement was expected across both consumer borrowing and income growth despite more recent positive figures. In relation to the concerns regarding a "housing bubble" over the "Help to Buy" program, an initiative to assist with housing purchasing, it has been stated that the FPC have tools in place to address this, should the situation require action. However in a nutshell, according to Governor Carney " the UK economy is still just coming back to its level in 2008, growth, while it’s improved, while it’s strengthened, is still relatively modest relative to historic recovery". In regards to recent economic data, The October UK manufacturing PMI came in lower at 56.0 from 56.3 in September, however with production indices still on track combined with the recent 0.8% GDP growth recorded Q3 and of course the continuous improvements in employment, this lends favourably to the Pound. This week sees the BOE announce the new Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchasing Facility which currently still stands at £375. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">In regards to where GU sits on the charts. Having fallen back to the 159 price level and GU opening the week with limited movement between 23% and DP, it is highly suggestive of uncertainty which may be due to economic data due for the Pound later this week. If following previous event related movement, a positive reaction will see GU make its way back to 160. A break above 160130 will indicate bullish momentum that should take GU higher towards the 161 price level. However a continuation of this decline will be confirmed by a break of 159081 with targets towards 158.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"> </span></div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcaMyOAkYbY5L3akth_hAYwfENWoUECA31EAIEbcL-LT0oJVWIhaSNXm5KpsNxmIM6MMaEBOxTstAY1SC0C7KzXY7QXKheOf9ejIOgE_q3YygcYbEGbCk8QF2mttsxKCJ8EXofnUh4wJ0/s1600/eurusdh1+2+nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcaMyOAkYbY5L3akth_hAYwfENWoUECA31EAIEbcL-LT0oJVWIhaSNXm5KpsNxmIM6MMaEBOxTstAY1SC0C7KzXY7QXKheOf9ejIOgE_q3YygcYbEGbCk8QF2mttsxKCJ8EXofnUh4wJ0/s320/eurusdh1+2+nov.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3ohR-oFBW-N5YJ9pxcKB9NacWM8OIwq0sXcT7qkc0ASMarGl7dX6lO3JbXIaLAQ21xolbMGb-WlbL3DhyphenhyphenSL4OkHVRkjb-gZDZSciwCMt1RjO7OIJx1Enmz6DOB4ch9I7p7b8_hxEtj_0/s1600/eurusdh1+7+october.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">EU opened the week at 138085 continuing within the consolidation at the highs from the previous NY session. This consolidation continued into the first day of trading for the new week before EU finally broke out topside (low of 137550 and high of 138130), however was immediately met with sellers upon the break of 138 to 138110 in the next candle which instigated the start of the reversal as price now found its direction upon the break lower from the consolidation period and follow through with the next candle to a low of 137390. This then saw EU range at current levels before attempting another break higher with a move back to 137677 and pause here throughout the 30th October until a break lower from 137814 tested a break through the 137 price level, reaching 136952, which again saw the candle close higher at 137266. This then saw price maintain at current levels (around 137302), aligning once again with the previous range before finally breaking lower to the 76% level (136996) on the 31st October. Price hovered here momentarily before a surge of selling set in upon the break of the 76% level which saw price create a 3 bearish candle move to 136372 (38%), where price paused before resuming with a steady decline, breaking the 23% level ( 136134) followed by a continued breach through the previous day low at 135743. This then saw price take a breath, before continuing in its descend , taking EU to DS1 (13526), closing the NY session at a final price of 134849. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">When looking at EU more closely, we can see price locked in a tight consolidation from the 17th October moving into the next week which saw EU breakout over 100 pips in a bullish 3 candle move from 136720 to 137850 on the 22nd October. From here we can see an attempt to sell from a double top formed on the 23rd October upon the approach to the 138 price level at 137922. Support was then found at 137410, springing the pair back north towards 138. However, the consolidation just under 138, reflects the hesitation in breaking above this level which it only managed to do on the 24th October but not with the same excessive momentum propelling EU from the upper 136 region. Moving towards the 138 region, we saw price movement reflect uncertainty as the pair hovered at highs, only managing to break the 76% level (138104) to reach resistance at 138247 around DR1. There are at least 3 notable attempts to short from 138 that rejected , keeping price sustained in this consolidation just under the 76% with the final rejection at DR1 finally succeeding as the session grew to a close. This saw price break back below DP (137927) to finding support at the 23% level (137782), bring EU back to DP with a final close around the 61% at 138012.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Moving to the daily, we can see the break of 134033 on the 18th September, paving the way for a bull run once it broke higher to 135415 on the 18th September. This saw price maintain above the mid 136 point, finding support at 134628, propelling another installment to the topside. The weekly also showed price breaking slightly above the previous peak top of 137105 and just below DR3 at 138516. This is combined with a small tick upward in the EURUSD strength meter, indicating marginal strength against the USD on the longer time frames. However, this was not reflective on the 1 hour, which showed the USD stronger than the Euro. On observation, we have seen the currency supported by the enthusiasm of the market participants as the Euro embarks on a clear ascension since breaking out from a low of 131041 on the 6th September. This is in high contrast to the bearish pessimism surrounding the Euro, that recently saw price move in an extended decline from a top of 149394 on the 4th September 2011 that from rejection from a double top created at 142465 (9th April 2011 and 30th October 2011) leading to an extended decline to a low of 120419 with a close of 123212 on the 22nd July 2012. Now that EU has rejected the 138 region, we have seen EU drop nearly 300 pips since last week as developments or non-developments in the Euro Zone start to take focus and the reality of the "Euro situation" sets in. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">On the other side of the picture, to truly understand the situation regarding the Euro and its current position, let us regress back to the time that we saw the massive sell off in the Euro and its correlation to the Euro Crisis. Firstly, much of the waning pessimism regarding the Euro Zone was not really to do with European governments as such, but rather movements in the private sector in the areas of borrowing and interest rates. This consequently led to the emerging of recessions in Spain and Italy who then employed caution in spending in favour of debt repayment . Along with this, a surge in government borrowing amid the damage to European economies in the 2008 GFC also developed. The ramification of this financial crisis saw a rise in unemployment within European countries, reaching an unemployment rate over 20% at one time, while also affecting export markets. Looking at this from an investment perspective, panic erupted in the markets as the reality of a financial collapse due to economic stagnation set in. When relating this to the charts at the time, it can be seen that there was no relief for the Euro which saw traders and investors take every opportunity to sell the Euro at every retracement higher as positions were banked. Recalling back, this was rather a fascinating move, which saw economic data do very little to change the overbearing pessimism in the market even with the print of a positive figure.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Moving to the present, what I have just outlined, is what the Euro Zone has been working to overcome in an effort to reach new milestones for the major economy. There has been actions taken by the ECB in an effort to achieve their targets in relation to objectives such as price, structural and financial stability which also includes the introduction of the Banking Union as credit remains a priority. However, there are now other concerns that now sit on the table. The most notable being that Europe may be looking at following Japan on to a path of deflation with the possibility that the ECB may now have to consider cutting Interest Rates. To date, the ECB have left rates on hold at 0.5%, having already reduced the rate from 2.5% previously. With a rate that is already close to 0%, the pending question is, "will the ECB now do what they have to do in an effort to avoid a deflation scenario?" and will this be the next move made by the ECB? With Economic forecasts due this week, this may provide some insight in the ECB view of the economy and their actions.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">No doubt the improvements in the Euro zone has seen a turn towards an economic recovery from facing the verge of a financial collapse a few years ago, but even still, we are still far from rejoicing in victory and even in its progression, the improvement to date is still not reflective of a smooth or rapid transition, as the Euro zone continue to face and battle the many internal challenges associated with the reconstruct of its major economy. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">However looking at the Euro specifically, among other things, a high Euro impacts its competitiveness with exportation which sits amid the greater issue of a global exportation slowdown, which has seen the World Trade Organisation reduce its forecast for world economic growth to 2.5% and the IMF to 2.9%. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Should the Euro rebound from the lows and appreciate further, this may reignite prevailing concerns over its effect on their recovery. Already, French Minister Arnaud Montebourg has been noted in urging the ECB to weaken the Euro, given the ramifications of its current travel to higher levels. In a recent comment he has stated that if the Euro depreciated by 10%, it would increase national wealth by 1.2% and create 120,000 jobs while also reducing the deficit by 12b euros. This has also been supported by other European officials also voicing their concerns. However on the other side of the coin, the appreciating Euro has also had some positive effects in regards to a macro economic perspective, which has seen the economy shift towards consumption with less reliance on exportation. According to the US Treasury Quarterly Currency Manipulation Report, European trade surpluses have become too large to sustain especially in light of European countries suffering from high unemployment. This then does lend favourably to the stronger Euro which has helped alleviate the focus on "outside demand" to re-adjusting focus on the internal demand within Europe. But even so, what does this mean for the Euro exactly? I don’t really think there is certainty around this. Currently, the Euro remains driven by events and speculation into the movements of the ECB in addressing the issues surrounding the Euro Zone recovery. In a market where "global uncertainty" looms, a heavy reliance will be placed on the fundamentals and movements from our political and financial leaders, to provide not only assurance but direction as to where we are going. Like all recovering economies, economic data still remains as the key in determining next steps while providing an indication of progression. Hence while news and events have always propelled movement, it is even more so the case now.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
In regards to how all of this relates to the charts, starting with the weekly chart. This still shows EU moving within range and with a lot of room to move while still being "within range". Looking at the recent turn in market sentiment, the weekly shows a print of a bearish marubozu (high of 138171 and low of 134796), covering a portion of the bullish move made from the triple bottom at 127777, which upon breaking the top of 134177 has pushed the Euro to this recent extreme 138 level which has now just sold back to the 135 range. A follow through of this candle, will most certainly see EU look towards 133 as a target once breaking the 134 region. However, the pinbar on the 4 hour chart (low of 134413) may see EU fill higher first before continuing and we will still need a catalyst to push this bear move, especially in light of this extensive sell off which has not really seen much relief. I still think a move between 135630 - 135888 will be a nice retracement that may set another whirlwind of selling should we reject from this area. Otherwise, breaking higher, expect EU to look at making a move towards the 136 region first. I still hold a bearish view on EU until otherwise noted.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_vKREQISdNNkMSHyZ50zegbSE8PgzONLAQf-tsExMUCiLmn1KCMd-pbl0Z2K30dVOQTMG4WYa_uNZ-kpwB6WW94slpniC0feoywVT1KXGtWnlIavuq8TE6JOgFXGGVHLzbrD40Xn-l78/s1600/audusdm30+7+october.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf9HNqkYGs9cDpBMhn41i_I702VwEy8A-x7k0hlVdsJUo9vU0fzWg1VZCcZteBUpF496UCyg_w2Kjk1zafHLkPzlaZhT-poJ03Ki-GzEL8-KxSCvL_BL24QRTTPwB8WZlqhWxgHk5X894/s1600/audusdh1+2+nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf9HNqkYGs9cDpBMhn41i_I702VwEy8A-x7k0hlVdsJUo9vU0fzWg1VZCcZteBUpF496UCyg_w2Kjk1zafHLkPzlaZhT-poJ03Ki-GzEL8-KxSCvL_BL24QRTTPwB8WZlqhWxgHk5X894/s320/audusdh1+2+nov.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">AU opened the week at 95827, moving to high of 96222, which met with rejection taking AU to a low of 95554. This then saw AU maintain at current levels around 95723 before following through with a bearish break out candle (high of 95744 and low of 95347) Price once again formed a small base around 95308 before resuming with a steady decline to a low of 94582 where support was found, reversing direction back to 195156 which upon the breach of 95 saw sellers step in taking price back under 95 to 94840. However, this then saw price attempt another move north meeting once again with 95 as a resistance level which upon this attempt higher, saw AU sell off to a low of 94406. Still reluctant to complete a move lower, price then maintained around the 23% ( 94683), looking for direction, before a bullish break out candle formed (low of 94657 and 950007) taking AU back to the 76% level (95075) where price then attempted to reject once again, finding support upon a bullish pinbar formed around DP (94760). This gave AU the push i needed to make its move back to the upside, which saw price break through the 76% level reaching a high of 95251 on the 31st October.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">However replaying the same move, price once again met with rejection at 95207, sending price down back to DP where an attempt to find support at DP failed, sending price straight through the 23% (94683) to a new low at 94521. Price then continued to saw at the lows before buyers entered upon an attempt to continue lower, forming a bullish pinbar. This then saw price move back up above DP to find resistance at the 50% level (94879). Shortly after, one last attempt to break higher was made, reaching 94840, before turning into an inverted pinbar as sellers pushed the price back down. This paved the way for another decline, which upon breaking the previous day low of 94507 (former support), saw AU make a new low at 94210 with price closing the NY session at 94350.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">When looking at AU on the 4 hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 23rd October shows a rejection of the high of 97574 and then again a rejection of the pullback to 96700, placing AU within a bearish trend in the immediate time frames. The rejection of 96113 (76%) also saw AU capped from further movement higher and a re-test of 95842 with a low of 95715 brought AU back within range still capped at the 96113 level (high of 96222), which rejected sending AU lower, with a confirmation of continuation upon the break of 95720. A move back to 95156 created a double top which rejected on the 31st October sending AU back a low of 94415 before a pull back to 94890 and then further to a low of 94210. AU commenced this week re-testing the low in early Asia which met with strong rejection, producing a very notable bullish pinbar that has pushed price back over 95, where it has been ranging throughout most of the NY session. With the RBA on schedule for tomorrow, it is possible that AU is preparing for a move higher in response to no change to the rate. The daily chart does show the first sign of a pullback and a positive market reaction tomorrow could see AU re-test the 96 price level once again. A bullish continuation on this pair would prevail upon a break above 95990, which may see AU re-test 97 while trying to push forward from there. This is backed by the 1 hour chart which also sees price sitting within the top end of its recent range which, if price breaks above 95145, will see AU attempt to head north. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">In regards to economic data, a fairly consistent flow has kept an optimistic view of the AUD and the idea that the RBA will begin looking at increasing interest rates in the next few months. Although, its transition into positive territory has also been backed by movements in the commodities markets which despite movements elsewhere, has not really faltered in demand for iron-ore, Australia's main export. Also in its favour has been stronger figures out of China such as the stronger PMI figure released by China towards the end of last week, which came in at 51.4 vs. 51.2, adding a little lift to the AUD, before the decline of the majors against the USD at the end of the week. Overall, we are still seeing an slow expansion across some sectors but a general improvement, which for those sectors at the bottom tier of performance, has been offset by better performance in other areas such as housing, which is to be expected given the current position of the Interest Rate. More recently, the treasury increased the debt ceiling from $A300b to $A500b on the 31st October.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">In a recent speech given at the CFA Australia Investment Conference, it was highlighted that Australia has been keeping very close to its inflation targets and unlike other advanced countries, has been able to maintain an efficient banking system, while also experiencing an "investment boom" which has seen business investment reach over 18% of GDP, the highest within the last 50 years. Compared to other advanced countries, this places Australia in a much stronger position even despite the fact that mining investment has declined over the year as Australia moves away from the mining boom. When looking at the sentiment of domestic businesses, it has been noted that hesitation regarding expansion and investment still prevail as caution remains in light of global uncertainty, the high exchange rate and other factors both domestic and otherwise. Essentially, this means that the low interest rate although it has demonstrated its effectiveness in stimulating the economy in some areas, has not fully been maximised by all sectors, which in turn has contributed to the varied pace of the trends within the different sectors. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Looking at where this stands with the domestic currency, firstly, as mentioned with the Euro, the appreciating currency has most certainly had an adverse effect on exportation, making exports more expensive for trading partners. However, on the other hand, the higher dollar has made imports more cheaper, thus producing a positive outcome for businesses reliant on importation. In addition, this has also contributed positively to the cost of production for local exportation. However, while looking at the pros and cons, it is still worth mentioning here two things. Firstly, the RBA is still supportive of a lower currency to assist with a progressive economic recovery until otherwise stated. Secondly, looking back at the more recent RBA statements, the reliance on the depreciating currency to offer stimulus to the domestic currency has been most beneficial as an offset measure which has also played a part in the current position of the cash rate which has, in the last few rounds, been kept on hold. There has always been concern over the appreciation of the dollar, which has attracted investors at its lows and more recently at the dips. This has essentially kept the AUD afloat from a further decline and more poised now towards the upper end of the spectrum. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">As the economy now starts to gain more confidence in line with their economic data figures, the proposal of another cash rate cut will seem more unlikely while the economy continues on this path of recovery. Hence why now we are seeing the AUD maintain a resilient stance on the charts in more recently times with interest from foreign investors and the like. This is a very big contrast to not long ago when really there was only one direction for the AUD and by that I do not mean up. Having said that, this does not mean that the AUD cannot fall or will not fall in between the efforts to take the currency to new highs. Remembering that AUD is not only easily influenced by not only its own data and by its counterparts, but is responsive to the other financial markets i.e. commodities (being a commodity currency). We should see the AUD fluctuate within the boundaries of its range before fully breaking out. </span>For now, it is still important to remember that Australia still remains in recovery mode and the RBA is in favour of a lower currency to assist with "re-balancing" the economy while also depending on economic indicators such as inflation and employment to continually re-assess its position and determine the timing for adjustments in monetary policy. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">When assessing the current position of AU, we are still looking at a scenario of making a clear break above 95, which so far since its efforts to move north since its decline has struggled to do. Therefore this still maintains in place as a strong resistance level having seen the pair sell from here a few times. In light of the RBA favouring weaker dollar, this will set in on the weaker economic data. The sentiment of the RBA will cap movement higher and should we break above 95 then 97 will be the top resistance area to re-test with the 96 range in full play. Though this will also require full clearance of the upper half of the 95 price level, which may also serve as a top. However, should price stay contained under the 95 price level, we should see AU make a move back to 94 and breaking this, extending a decline between 92500 and the 93 range. </span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span lang="EN-US"> </span> </span></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiuYMJ-hjewABQWRehwv-xJLK0Gf4TpVA5BjbtfC8Ubsevb8pUbMBDpV-bjPjJrLnygy1oC31vEETRdW8XX7y2SDrBRMaJJ-mOOJlj_8FvH4VuUsVDoeVCUfw7LvDtz6y2Mgk71hKq_CI/s1600/usdjpyh1+2+nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiuYMJ-hjewABQWRehwv-xJLK0Gf4TpVA5BjbtfC8Ubsevb8pUbMBDpV-bjPjJrLnygy1oC31vEETRdW8XX7y2SDrBRMaJJ-mOOJlj_8FvH4VuUsVDoeVCUfw7LvDtz6y2Mgk71hKq_CI/s320/usdjpyh1+2+nov.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu3eI6IsOaStfsEpgqV9G66LGfZNIrv_M60aPP4rm_sUHjdNAeg49KVFAlcYIiTsTyQgaM7DtI5R48-x-vwcjr6F02kVUjn9oWs3P9cJshwrWDf-b8IJ4-xjcMsXHXbf_0ZvEWeTXwiNc/s1600/usdjpyh1+7+october.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">UY opened the week at 97727, gapping higher from its NY close at 97359. This then followed with UY contained within a range between 97455 - 97783, until a breakout to the upside (low of 97659 and high of 97956) saw UY set its direction with a higher base created around 97914 leading to another break higher to over the 98 price level reaching 98271 on the 29th October. Price then consolidated around this level moving into the 30th October which then saw UY break out with a surge of bullish momentum, producing a candle with a low of 98078 and high of 98672. This then saw the sellers step in, pushing price back down to DP (98303) and then lower, piercing the 23% level (98174) and to a low of 98077. This then saw price move back to DP where resistance was once again found, pushing UY back down through the previous day low on the 1st November, finding support at 97802.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span> <span lang="EN-US">This then followed with a reversal back north, appointing 97802 as the bottom, as price made its way back with another surge of bullish momentum to DP, where it paused before moving to the 76% level (97391). Breaking through the 76%, saw momentum increase as price moved higher through DR1 (98562), reaching a high of 98844 (DR2). This saw price pause at the high s around 98752, towards the end of the last NY session, with UY closing slightly lower at 98664.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">When observing UJ on a daily chart, UJ is still positioned within a sideways trend that is yet to break with the last high at 100597 on the 11th September. A confirmed break above 100597 will promote a bullish extension with its sights set on 103 region which it has not managed to reach since early 2013. However, looking at this pair on an intraday level, there does not seem to be a clear path set as yet and such this may see UJ move into a consolidation or movement within a tight range until further confirmation has been obtained. Looking at UJ on the 4 hour chart, we can see a complete retracement back to the point previous top rejection at 98836, just under 99 with price poised towards the upper region of its range. This does suggest that UJ will be looking to reach higher targets once price clearly breaks over 98764 with first targets within the 99 price area before extending higher. However, should price stay contained below 99, a break back below 98164 will see UJ target the high higher 97 area and try to find support there. With price currently sitting between the previous day low and DP, we will need to see UJ to break above DP (98634) in order to attempt a bull move. If UJ stays capped in the more immediate time frames under 98601, the pair will be looking to test lower towards the lower 98 price region. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Since the September “Non-Taper”, the USD has suffered from extended weakness due to the following events in the US which dominated not only the headlines but market sentiment. This has given strength to the majors against the USD, which helped fuel the recent bull rallies witnessed over the last few weeks. However with the debt ceiling crisis now on the shelf until early 2014 and government workers back at work, focus has now diverted back to the “taper” with special attention to the US economic figures, as the market tries to digest information in an effort to find any indication towards potential decisions and actions by the US Fed. Interestingly the figures released after the government shutdown surprised the market somewhat, stumping the general expectation that the government shutdown would dampen the progress of US economy even despite the $24b that exited the US economy during that time. This was particularly evident in the ISM figure which came in at 56.4, beating the forecast of 55 and the previous figure 56.2, showing that US manufacturing still expanded even in light of the 16 days the US government was shutdown. Consequently the positive ISM figure boosted UJ which saw the pair reach a new high of 98.84.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">So with the taper back on the radar, this has set another round of speculation with a split view on whether the US Fed will actually be ready this time. More recent data still remains a little mixed, which then leaves things a little uncertain on how the US Fed will interpret the current US economic position. In the time around the "September Taper", the last NFP result came in 148k vs. an expectation of 180k, accompanied by an improvement in the unemployment rate from 7.3% to 7.2%. This saw many to believe that this was enough of a justification to warrant a “mini taper”, thus holding strong expectations that the US Fed would uphold to this decision – which they did not. Therefore, it is reasonable to think the US Fed may employ the same rationale should the economic figures fail to sway once again more in favour of a progression since September. If it was not enough last time, it may not be enough this time, which will see this delayed until early next year. This week we have employment data due along with the NFP and unemployment rate. Current figures show NFP holding a weaker forecast of 130k vs. the previous 148k, while the unemployment rate is tipped to increase from 7.2% to 7.3%. Any surprises, or non surprises, should see movement in response to the strength/weakness brought to the USD following its economic data releases.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Moving on to Japan. It has been a long ride but according to the BOJ, all remains on track in meeting their inflation target of 2% in 2015. The improvements in the Japanese economy, have still kept the BOJ confident in meeting their targets and as such, further easing is most likely not necessary in the near term. However, this may not be the case in 2014, where BOJ Govenor Kuroda believes that additional easing may be necessary and they will do what is needed. In regards to the views on inflation, we could see Japan reach 1% by the end of this fiscal year. However this will not change the pace which still will remain slow even within its incline. </span>Looking at the current position of UJ, this pair looks more appealing to the upside, which when coupled with USD strength, a break above the 99 price level will see UJ make its move back to the 100 region.</div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Tahoma","sans-serif"; font-size: 8.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<hr />
Want to keep up to date with our posts? We are now on Twitter. Follow <span style="background-color: #ffe599;">@GFXTRADER </span>and receive updates throughout the week.LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-84422220171016575192013-11-03T19:14:00.000-08:002013-11-04T08:51:12.018-08:00Trade Recommendations: WC 4th November 2013 <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>GBPUSD</b></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3EK877c9GHvpLEd3XIMdvXm0miA53xTFeW7RDvyzqNQQTY_2hjECM8H0eqIZK6HTF6BNt305fDljtwHU7FpameHrcjxwpKl6DX08PmWt8IvbJG4A2qRFqPtnddKAkKqet0SqPVTcjn1Y/s1600/GU+4+nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3EK877c9GHvpLEd3XIMdvXm0miA53xTFeW7RDvyzqNQQTY_2hjECM8H0eqIZK6HTF6BNt305fDljtwHU7FpameHrcjxwpKl6DX08PmWt8IvbJG4A2qRFqPtnddKAkKqet0SqPVTcjn1Y/s320/GU+4+nov.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Last week saw open the Asia session at 161610 closing the week just
under 159211 in a surge of selling during the NY session. This week, the BOE will announce their Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchasing Facility which currently sits at </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">£375. The more recent releases, have seen the BOE refrain from making adjustments to the Asset Purchasing Facility, which in terms of price movement, has translated into prompting a bullish move for the the pair post release. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Fundamentally, the UK is still on track with its recovery, holding some to speculate that adjustments to Monetary Policy may come earlier than forecasted. This has kept the Pound on the radar for a bounce back in the future, given that economic data continues to support a progressive improvement. Looking at the upcoming trading sessions, we may see GU consolidate ahead of its events later this week. However movements in the USD may sway this in the interim, which if this the case, should see GU find support at nearby key levels. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>159405<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 159660 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 159081 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 159405 (23%) will see 159660(DP)) as the next test point. A break above this level will then promote a bullish move towards 160130 (76%) which if price breaks above this level, will see GU aim for higher targets upon breaking resistance at 160454. Targets are: 160230, 161227 and 161802.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, there are 3 price levels that will still keep GU within a bearish view. The first capping level is 159405 (23%), followed by 159660 (DP) and 160130 (76%). A break below 159405 followed by a break below 159081 will see the following targets come into view: 158595 followed by 158031 and then 157011.<br />
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 160230, T2: 161227 T3: 161802</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 158595, T2: 158031, T3: 157011<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461">PMI Construction (Nov 4), Markit Services PMI (Nov 5 ), Industrial Production (YoY)(Sept), Manufacturing Production (Nov 6) NIESR GDP (Nov 6), BOE Rate Decision, BOE Assest Purchase Facility (Nov 7), Goods Trade Balance, Total Trade Balance (Nov 8)</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCj5DvLy_PADzN2NBkLQeSYJegFOJnq-eAv9kewEdO3vyGA8Vf45objRN3rp0s5Xc2-zJgZUA-HXXl9fWhG309sXkegcmKdeMk1R4OUYZpto90k4aBWmXs4Ff20W1AeAB4thEp0U1dTgE/s1600/UJ+4+Nov+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCj5DvLy_PADzN2NBkLQeSYJegFOJnq-eAv9kewEdO3vyGA8Vf45objRN3rp0s5Xc2-zJgZUA-HXXl9fWhG309sXkegcmKdeMk1R4OUYZpto90k4aBWmXs4Ff20W1AeAB4thEp0U1dTgE/s320/UJ+4+Nov+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Quite an eventful week for the Euro after ascending to a high of 138110, which rejected promptly, sending EU spiraling down to a low of 13492 during the last NY session. The recent appreciation of the Euro has already spurred a reaction from some European officials who have voicing their public concern, urging the ECB to take action. Meanwhile,the Euro Zone still continues to face its challenges in meeting their economic milestones. More recently, are talks circulating that the Euro Zone may be travelling down the same path as Japan as "deflation" now becomes the new topic of conversation. This has prompted many to think the ECB will now consider cutting Interest Rates as the ECB do what is necessary to avoid a more detrimental outcome. This along with profit taking is what led to the grand slide from the 138 region, as investors and traders ultimately lost faith in holding longs over the 138 price mark.<br />
<br />
Therefore, this now strengthens the case for a bearish Euro and personally, I am still bearish on the Euro until otherwise noted and believe it does hold the potential to see 132, 130 and possibly lower, looking ahead. We have the Economic forecasts due this week from ECB, which may provide some sort of indication or clarity over their views regarding the major economy.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>135054 (23%) / 135630 (76%)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 13507 / 135888 ( break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 135599 (break below)</b><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br />
1st Trade: Buy on break above 135054 with a target of 136530.<br />
<br />
Second Trade:<br />
<br />
Key Level to watch: 135630<br />
<br />
Currently price is trading near the previous day low at 134880. Having closed NY lower and Asia looking to continue A break above 135630 will see 135888 as the next resistance level. A break above 135888 will then promote the following targets: 136528 followed by 137039 and then 137805.<br />
<br />
Breaking above 137805 will see EU re-test the previous highs with 138260 as the next target. Breaking above this level places see EU resume its bullish trend prior to its decline late last week.<br />
<br />
<span style="text-align: justify;">Alternatively, a rejection of the 135628 price level will see EU look for support towards 135054(23%). A confirmed break through the 23% level, will then promote a continuation of the current bearish move with the following targets in view: 133907 followed by 133686 and then 133009. Breaking below 13309 will target the following levels: 132656, 132509, 131380.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 136528, T2: 137039 T3: 137805<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 133907, T2: 136860 T3: 133090<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov 4), EC Economic Growth Forecasts, PPI (Nov 5), GER Markit Services, GER Factory Orders (Nov 6), GER Industrial Production, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (Nov 7), GER Current Account, GER Trade Balance (Nov 8) </div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmeLGTn2uQqw_yNQWow75JN55vdyxiaKxYQPsMhaHfhMIJ62acV-TPxFWhhwA1nBlpRvXcbdLFMsBPQuQaTXPum7nJWY2uPyx-pvrpwmC8y5fvmupJjlzSVEtKaNgt6HmEksaVkZlBj9Q/s1600/AU+4+nov+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmeLGTn2uQqw_yNQWow75JN55vdyxiaKxYQPsMhaHfhMIJ62acV-TPxFWhhwA1nBlpRvXcbdLFMsBPQuQaTXPum7nJWY2uPyx-pvrpwmC8y5fvmupJjlzSVEtKaNgt6HmEksaVkZlBj9Q/s320/AU+4+nov+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
The start of Asia saw AU re-test and reject the previous day low with price breaking above DP and the 76% (94730) upon retail sales released earlier this morning. However with the RBA announcing the cash rate decision tomorrow, a surge to new highs may be kept on hold until tomorrow's event. AU is another pair tipped to take the lead with economic recovery. However recent events have inspired an adverse short term view as the pair declined on the back of RBA commentary, coupled by strength in the USD. Unlike the other majors, AU has fought the 9480 level a few times during the more recent intra-day sessions having found support towards the lower region of the 94 price range.<br />
<br />
With the Interest Rate Decision due tomorrow, there is an expectancy that the RBA will keep rates on hold in light of supporting data figures showing improvements in various sectors of the economy. In the upcoming London and NY sessions, we will more than likely see AU consolidate ahead of its upcoming major event, otherwise it may jump on the bandwagon of market sentiment should we see something move the majors against the USD collectively. This will see AU once again take a free ride until the RBA take the spotlight tomorrow.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>94730<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 94890(break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL:94583(break below)</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The start of Asia has seen AU re-test and reject the previous day low with price breaking above DP and the 76% (94730) upon retail sales released earlier this morning. However with the RBA announcing the cash rate decision tomorrow, a surge to new highs may be kept on hold until tomorrow's event.<br />
<br />
A break above 94890 will see AU reach for the following targets: 94990 followed by 95620 and then 96004.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, should AU break back below 94730(76%), the next support level to watch is 94583 (DP) followed by 94370 (23%). Breaking below the 23% level and 94210 (previous day low) will see the following targets come into view: 93960 followed by 93630 and then 93534.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 9499, T2: 95620 , T3: 96040<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 93960, T2:93630, T3: 93534<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
TD Securities Inflation (Nov 03), House Price Index, AIG Performance of Services Index (Nov 4), RBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Statement (Nov 5), Trade Balance (Nov 6), Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Full-time employment(Nov 7), RBA Monetary Policy Statement (Nov 8) </div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjevJ2MhGieF8apDAxJq2afL1OAuPax0iCGS79K1p1HjVGHt-hCSj6qoDDugTTFzCvREQnfYmm2hc2LBu9LN75aeQTlKepg3yGg0qUSp1OACTLMRfix5T9_XXqcvFjZfFdt8zqcI9IgfG0/s1600/UJ+27+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjevJ2MhGieF8apDAxJq2afL1OAuPax0iCGS79K1p1HjVGHt-hCSj6qoDDugTTFzCvREQnfYmm2hc2LBu9LN75aeQTlKepg3yGg0qUSp1OACTLMRfix5T9_XXqcvFjZfFdt8zqcI9IgfG0/s320/UJ+27+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Last week saw UJ summit to new heights as it embarked on an exciting journey to new highs from an open of 97595 to closing the week leaning towards 99 at a final price of 98664. This is also a full week of economic data for the USD, including NFP and the Unemployment rate. We should see some decent movement on the back of the important events this week. In regards to the US, tapering is still a topic on the table, with speculation as to whether the US Fed will finally set December as the commencement month. Friday's NY session should be interesting, especially following the round of earlier economic releases from the other currencies.<br />
<br />
Looking at Japan, "the likelihood of near-term easing is limited, while the likelihood of additional easing next year remains" according to BOJ Governor Kuroda. So far Japan is showing improvements towards rising inflation which is a positive for the economy. This should see the Yen back on track and contained from further appreciation in the future.<br />
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>98598</b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 98844 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 98446 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Look for price to move back to 98598 first. Once this level has been re-tested, a break above 98844 will promote bullish momentum opening up the following targets: 99060 followed by 99175 and then 99361. A break above 99361 will see the next set of targets come into view: 99478, 99706 and then 100113. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alternatively, a break below 98598 (76%) will see the first test of support at 98407 followed by 98048 (23%). Breaking below the 23% level will see 97802 as the next support level.<br />
<br />
Breaking the previous day low will then see the following targets come into view: 98009 followed by 97787 and then 97379. Breaking below 97379 will see UJ target 96969.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> </o:p><o:p> </o:p> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 99060, T2: 99175, T3: 99361</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 98009, T2: 97787, T3: 96969</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
US Factory Orders (Nov 4), US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct), JPY BOJ Monetary Policy Minutes (Nov 5), Mortgage Applications (Nov 6), US GDP, US Initial Jobs Claims, US Personal Consumption Expenditure, US Core Personal Expenditure, US Consumer Credit Change, JPY Foreign Bond Investment, JPY Foreign Investment in Japan stocks (Nov 7), US Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, US NFP, US Personal Income, US Consumer Personal Expenditure Price Index, US Personal Spending, US Unemployment Rate, US Reuters/Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov 8)<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
</h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com.</span></div>
</h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
</h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-19912844972199458642013-10-27T19:30:00.000-07:002013-10-29T20:37:42.026-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 28 October 2013<div>
<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVIR69suswhXpE442_QUvAwwdGPcV1duwMp99L6kKZXhvZRn18oFjuKYsUUTQK7NOCJ_z6nxAguhnJw6lrOrrpxJo3aChNuYbaO_4C6SlNefq5eanAB-AAQ7DV0eKZ4TSFMvbwc8DLOI4/s1600/gbpusdh1+21+oct+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVIR69suswhXpE442_QUvAwwdGPcV1duwMp99L6kKZXhvZRn18oFjuKYsUUTQK7NOCJ_z6nxAguhnJw6lrOrrpxJo3aChNuYbaO_4C6SlNefq5eanAB-AAQ7DV0eKZ4TSFMvbwc8DLOI4/s320/gbpusdh1+21+oct+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">GU started the week opening at 161699, moving steadily in a tight range
between 161560 and 161803, before breaking out higher on the 22nd Oct to a high
of 162118. This then led to GU reaching a new high of 161560 on the 23rd October which met with resistance, resulting in a sell off from the top to a low of 16189. This then saw GU make another move to the upside, reaching a high of 162224, which upon forming an inverted pinbar, led to another sell off back to 161370. However, once again, this was short-lived with GU finding support and bouncing back within range to 162461 following after the decline. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">With this high a target for the sellers, GU again made its way back to towards the mid 161 range
finding support at 161499 and closing the NY session at 161652. In regards to upcoming price movement, the weekly chart does
suggest the potential for GU to extend higher and
a break over the 162 price level will be key in determining if this will
be the set direction. However this is not the same view on the smaller time
frames which, actually show GU ending the
week towards the lower end of its
range spectrum closing the NY session at 38%. This suggests a possible move lower may come
first.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Level to Watch:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<strong>161838</strong></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>What to look for:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
</div>
<div>
<strong>BUY: 162239 (break above)</strong></div>
<div>
<strong>SELL: 161726 (break below)</strong></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
A break above 162239 will promote another bullish attempt north, having first cleared 162468 (previous day high). This will then place the following targets in view: 162301, 162677 and 163190.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a break below 161726 will see 161497 (previous day low) as the first test of support. Breaking this level will then expose the following targets: 161439 followed by 160099 and then 160620.</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bullish Levels:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
T1: 162301, T2: 162677, T3: 16319</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bearish Levels</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
T1: 161439, T2: 160099, T3: 160620</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Potential </strong><br />
<strong>Catalysts:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending to Individuals (29 Oct), Nationwide Housing Prices (31 Oct), Markit Manufacturing PMI (1 Nov)</td> </tr>
</tbody> </table>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody> </tbody> </table>
</div>
<hr />
<div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgddAec7qrDsUbwrYZ8tRi9Pbz-4baAMw0NSp57b3E8PtAWIznIXxMKX42-PnX6GvT5M1dLkbN7e0z1Gk82EIs5r4-QoLrwg0-1n9HXXDJXVemcQOqPirjAF9o7fAxBJ3Weq3Wshht-xGY/s1600/EU+27+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgddAec7qrDsUbwrYZ8tRi9Pbz-4baAMw0NSp57b3E8PtAWIznIXxMKX42-PnX6GvT5M1dLkbN7e0z1Gk82EIs5r4-QoLrwg0-1n9HXXDJXVemcQOqPirjAF9o7fAxBJ3Weq3Wshht-xGY/s320/EU+27+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">EU started the week at 136828 resuming the
tight from the previous week. This continued into the new week with the 22nd October finally seeing GU
finally break the range with a prominent breakout candle, following by a sequence of bullish candles to a top of 137918. Price then maintained at the highs
locked in a tight consolidation that saw price dip slightly to finding support
at 137425. Once reaching the 138 price
level, a heavy reluctance set in which
saw all attempts for price to break out, meet with sellers, resulting in the
containment of price at current levels moving into the next day with an
advancement to a new high of 138300.
This then led to the break down with the formation of a bearish marubozu taking
price to a low of 137787 and then back
north to the 138 price level where EU closed the NY session. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Currently, EU
remains quite high, however a further move higher cannot be ruled out given the bullish momentum behind the Euro, which is currently suspending the pair at the top of its range.
However, with concerns voiced from European officials regarding the detrimental
effects of the appreciating currency on recovering European economies, this may help in capping further movement north at the higher key levels in the near future. </span></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<div>
<div>
</div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong> Level to Watch:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<strong> 137927</strong></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>What to look for:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
</div>
<div>
<strong>BUY: 138181 (break below)</strong><br />
<strong> </strong></div>
<div>
<strong>SELL: 137738 (break below)</strong></div>
<div>
A break above 138181 will see the first test of resistance at 138318 (previous day high). Breaking above this level will see an extension of the bullish run in line with with a long entry above the previous high. This<br />
will then open up to the following targets: 138270 followed by 138560 and then 138862.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a break below 137875 (23%) will see the first test of support at 137738. Breaking below this price will set the following targets: 137633, followed by 137326 and then 137050.</div>
<div>
<strong></strong><br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bullish Levels:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
T1: 138270, T2: 138560 T3: 138862</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bearish Levels</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
T1: 137633, T2: 137326 T3: 137050</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Potential Catalysts:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
GER Retail Sales (28 Oct), GER Retail Sales (29 Oct), GER Unemployment Rate, GER Unemployment Change (30 Oct),<br />
Consumer Confidence, Business Climate, Services Sentiment, CPI, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, GER Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, Consumer Price Index - Core, Unemployment Rate (31 Oct)</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody> </table>
<div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
<hr />
<strong><br />
<br />
<br />
</strong><br />
<br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAFBbV97TwopSjqK_JtFVO9F7oSnp2h1h96V8icPQMgb3mw_rc731rTdvK-1VUF11THCV9086TBbBQW_LffBz-RJToY2uiBpiRecGiKPe8Xp5ijWJXfqtWXSiGHb-Q5jGhVWKbj7VuIc/s1600/AU+27+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAFBbV97TwopSjqK_JtFVO9F7oSnp2h1h96V8icPQMgb3mw_rc731rTdvK-1VUF11THCV9086TBbBQW_LffBz-RJToY2uiBpiRecGiKPe8Xp5ijWJXfqtWXSiGHb-Q5jGhVWKbj7VuIc/s320/AU+27+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">AU started the week at 96698, also resuming
the consolidation from the previous week, continuing in a tight consolidation. The 22nd October saw AU
break out to the topside, reaching a high of 97302 before meeting with
rejection, bringing AU back to the 97 price level. The 22nd October saw AU re-attempt another move higher, which saw AU advance slightly to a top of
97575, meeting with rejection and leading to a decline back to 96310. AU then managed one last attempt north, breaking above the 76% level to </span>96703, which faced rejection at DR1 (96639). From here, AU proceeded with a decline back to 96207
(DP) where it paused before breaking through and finding support at 95713, closing
the NY session at 95816. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">With AU closing the NY session at the lows, there is a good
possibility that a re-test and rejection of 96113 (76%) will see AU capped from
further gains with a view to target the lower levels towards 95. However
breaking above the 76% level, will inspire another attempt and re-test above 96.
We have a speech from the RBA Governor due early this week which may provide
some inspiration for upcoming intra-day price movement.</span></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Level to Watch:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<strong> 95967</strong></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>What to look for:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
</div>
<div>
<strong>BUY: 96236 (break above)</strong></div>
<div>
<strong>SELL: 96715 (break below)</strong></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
A break above 95967 will promote a bullish setup with an entry above 96236. This will then open up the following targets: 966468, followed by 96727 and then 97120. Breaking above 97 will then see AU extend the daily trend with targets above the 97400 area.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Alternatively, a break through 95838(23%) will see the first test of support at 95715. Breaking this level will then target the following levels: 95669 followed by 95172 and then 94658.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bullish Levels:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<div>
T1: 96468, T2: 96727, T3:97120</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bearish Levels</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<div>
T1: 95669, T2: 95172, T3: 94658</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Potential Catalysts:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
RBA Governor Speech (28 Oct), HIA New Home Sales (MoM), Building Permits (31 Oct), CNY Manufacturing PMI (1 Nov)</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody> </table>
</div>
<h2>
<br />
<br />
</h2>
<div>
<div>
<hr />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAFBbV97TwopSjqK_JtFVO9F7oSnp2h1h96V8icPQMgb3mw_rc731rTdvK-1VUF11THCV9086TBbBQW_LffBz-RJToY2uiBpiRecGiKPe8Xp5ijWJXfqtWXSiGHb-Q5jGhVWKbj7VuIc/s1600/AU+27+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAFBbV97TwopSjqK_JtFVO9F7oSnp2h1h96V8icPQMgb3mw_rc731rTdvK-1VUF11THCV9086TBbBQW_LffBz-RJToY2uiBpiRecGiKPe8Xp5ijWJXfqtWXSiGHb-Q5jGhVWKbj7VuIc/s320/AU+27+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">UJ commenced the week in positive form,
opening at 97859, climbing steadily to 98236 before pulling back slightly to
98159. From here, it continued to range with uncertainty until breaking out higher, reaching a top
of 98359. This then saw price hover at the highs moving into the 22nd October until
an attempt to break lower resulted in UJ reaching and rejecting a low of
97853 but bouncing quickly back to 98197. Printing a bullish candle, UJ attempted to follow through to the upside, however this notion was quickly abandoned
with the formation of an engulfing bearish candle. This provided the first signal
of weakness, which then led the way to a decline, finding initial support at 97128, pausing momentarily and forming a
short consolidation until finally breaking
lower to 96936 where final support was found. </span>From here, UJ then took a short
step back up to 97374 where it closed the NY session with a final price of 97359. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
With the US dominating the economic calendar this week, we should see some movement
on this pair. Key events to focus on include: USD Fed Interest Rate, USD Pace
of Treasury Purchase Program,, Pace of MBS Purchase Program, Fed Monetary
Policy Statement and Press Conference </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<div>
<div>
</div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Level to Watch:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<strong>97389</strong></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>What to look for:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
</div>
<div>
<strong>BUY: 97688 (break above)</strong></div>
<div>
<strong>SELL: 96936 (break below)</strong><br />
<strong><br /></strong></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
A break above 97389 will see 97511 (76%) as the first point of resistance. A break above 97688 (previous day high) will promote a bullish setup which will open up to to the following targets: 97593, 97815 and then 980567.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Alternatively, a break through 97398 (DP) will see the first test of support at 97113 (23%) and breaking this level will open the following targets: 97094, followed by 96923 and then 96721.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bullish Levels:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<div>
T1: 97591, T2: 97812, T3: 98037</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Bearish Levels</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<div>
T1: 97094, T2: 96923, T3: 96721</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td valign="top" width="177"><br />
<div>
<strong>Potential Catalysts:</strong></div>
</td> <td valign="top" width="461"><br />
<div>
<div>
USD Industrial Production (MoM), USD Pending Home Sales (YoY), USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business<br />
Index (28 Oct), USD PPI (YoY), USD Retail Sales, USD Business Inventories, USD CB Leading Indicator<br />
(MoM), USD Consumer Confidence, USD Fed Interest Rate, USD Pace of Treasury Purchase Program,, Pace of<br />
MBS Purchase Program, Fed Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (30 Oct), Initial Jobless<br />
Claims, Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (31 Oct), Markit Manufacturing PMI, ISM Prices Paid and ISM<br />
Manufacturing PMI (1 Nov)</div>
<div>
</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody> </table>
</div>
<h2>
<br />
<br />
</h2>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"> Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email<br />
liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com.</span><br />
<div>
<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
</h2>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-62490759662171017652013-10-20T20:29:00.002-07:002013-10-27T22:30:32.607-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 21 October 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Please find below the trade recommendations for this week. Given that the majors are sitting at quite high levels, my preference is to see a retracement from the highs during the early sessions and assess price movement from the lower levels while still maintaining breaks at the higher levels as entry criteria for continuation of current bull tends.<br />
<br />
Last week was dominated by USD weakness following the US events and the ratings downgrade and it is possible that we may see some stability or support for the USD this week, given that the US data is now back on the calender and the majors who have taken full advantage of the opportunity to advance, opening this new week poised at the highs. On my radar in particular is AU, as the pair continues in its quest to seek a top while drawing closer to higher key breaking areas. I will be especially observant over Monday/Tuesday given that the NFP figure will be released tomorrow and CPI figures in the days ahead, which indicate a weaker figure. However in addition, AU has aggressively advanced within 8 consecutive candles and in any event will be due for a pullback.<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoNgnmVJTmnGR1XFWQFWJiRvgHPCtCOXz6n4H49dOJtm-0siby3CtAK4QiLlIcXCNFbIcpYTzxtfDPsLzc0rZlPu8hB0YSJIL20ybSz27FbAJmJ471atw1atL4TUjMXW4CMDZ4UfC84jM/s1600/gbpusdh1+21+oct+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoNgnmVJTmnGR1XFWQFWJiRvgHPCtCOXz6n4H49dOJtm-0siby3CtAK4QiLlIcXCNFbIcpYTzxtfDPsLzc0rZlPu8hB0YSJIL20ybSz27FbAJmJ471atw1atL4TUjMXW4CMDZ4UfC84jM/s320/gbpusdh1+21+oct+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial;">GU started the week at 159702, finding support at a low of 158939 on the 16th October. From here, GU reversed to the upside upon an 80+ pip break out as it continued on its bull run taking price back over 161, where it consolidated before extending higher to 162246. Meeting with rejection at this level, GU proceeded with an extended decline back below 162, settling around the the mid 161 area.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; line-height: 115%;"> </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
</span></span>The release of stronger CPI figures on the 15th Oct re-ignited a bout of confidence, which saw price move back towards 160 from 159141. However, this was offset by the release of mixed economic data later in the week, which included the Claimant Count reflecting a positive change at -41.7k vs. -25k (forecast) and average earnings which were lower at 0.7% vs. 1.2% (previous figure). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reflected no change at 7.7%. This brought strength to the Pound, which when combined with current USD weakness, prompted GU to reject a further decline and instead climb steadily to a strong finish to the week.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>162049<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 162246 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 161900 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 162246 will promote another bullish move north, placing the following targets in view: 162740, 162888, 163910. Breaking above 163910 will expose 164199.<br />
<br />
Alternatively,if GU breaks below 161900, This may promote a retracement or move lower with the first test of support at 161609 (23%). Breaking this level will expose the following targets: 16091 followed by 159920, 159640 and 158181.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 162740, T2: 162888, T3: 163910<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 159920, T2: 159640, T3: 158181<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential </b><b>Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div style="text-align: justify;">
Public Sector Net Borrowing (22 Oct), BOE Minutes, BOE MPC Vote Hike, BOE MPC Vote, BBA Mortgage Approvals (23 Oct), GDP (YoY) (Q3), GDP (QoQ) (Q3)</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQeLjEdk6jxJ7UdVwk8Pzg78ojBBH0ItDmO4S7BDplEPJG31Fgt2ZHCkLMTKwM_JOVrs1uRxQ4CTfhLhsb3yqbGZp6Fy9poPM4hoNEZ1JRyoHp5KMTsuXxtO0OmYFiof9UFfomajUp-0/s1600/eu+21+oct+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQeLjEdk6jxJ7UdVwk8Pzg78ojBBH0ItDmO4S7BDplEPJG31Fgt2ZHCkLMTKwM_JOVrs1uRxQ4CTfhLhsb3yqbGZp6Fy9poPM4hoNEZ1JRyoHp5KMTsuXxtO0OmYFiof9UFfomajUp-0/s320/eu+21+oct+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br />
EU commenced the week stronger opening at 135592, making a high of 135973 before retracing back towards the mid 135 range where price consolidated before breaking lower in a bearish 3 candle move to a low of 134789. EU paused briefly around these low levels, before re-aligning back with the open. However, this prompted another attempt lower, which met with the same support level forming a double bottom. This then led the way to a bull run that saw confirmation once breaking above 135669. From here, EU extended its ascension towards 137, reaching a high of 135035, before falling back below the round figure.<br />
<br />
To date, 13710 has acted as a strong rejection level that has contained EU previous from further progression higher. The lst attempt at this level can be seen on the 1st February which saw price reject from a top of 137104. This led to an impressive decline down to 127442. Currently, though the Euro zone has shown economic improvement over the last few months, it still qualifies as being within its "infancy" of its recovery, with economic progress expected to remain at a slow pace. A such, it is more than likely that any advancement higher will more than likely be due to USD weakness, with the 13710 area still holding its position as a strong resistance level. A break above here, may see further movement north, however this will has a high probability of being be short-lived.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>136960<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 136588 (retracement lower first </b><br />
<b> </b><b style="text-align: justify;">followed by break above)</b><b style="text-align: justify;"> </b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 136550 (break below)</b><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Given that EU is currently trading near a very prominent resistance level (13710), I am hesitant in recommending a bullish play from current levels. Therefore, an intra-day setup would be a much safer option. If EU pulls back to 136693 with price action supporting a rejection around this level, there may be a nice long opportunity back to 136930.This target will either contain further upside movement or promote another bullish attempt. Therefore only after rejection of the low as well as breaking above the 76% level, should you look for an extended bullish play with an entry above 137035. Breaking above this level will then place the following targets in view: 137494, 137620 and 138.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="text-align: justify;">Alternatively, a break below 136693 (23%) will see the first test of support at 136303. Breaking below this price will set the following targets: 135627, 135340 and 134411. Breaking below the last well, will see an extended decline to: 1333976, 122837 and 133735.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 137494, T2: 137620 T3: 138000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 135627, T2: 135340 T3: 134411<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
10 YR Bond Auction, Consumer Confidence, (23 Oct), European Council Meeting, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Markit PMI Composite (24 Oct), European Council Meeting, GER IFO Expectations, GER Current Assessment (25 Oct) </div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpK2FbUaUoodVbinkIEwdLS2r_AeVFSgBWp8iiY6Hv7j5pNwE7QrdIZ1H5-GtU7rFvK8wuJbMUsQAaSzVfA5QEvBIt-u-RG-NP-WZClcmxNoOOxYPAosfrv8409w_nwxWgi1UyVChbXSI/s1600/au+21+oct+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpK2FbUaUoodVbinkIEwdLS2r_AeVFSgBWp8iiY6Hv7j5pNwE7QrdIZ1H5-GtU7rFvK8wuJbMUsQAaSzVfA5QEvBIt-u-RG-NP-WZClcmxNoOOxYPAosfrv8409w_nwxWgi1UyVChbXSI/s320/au+21+oct+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
No relief for AU this week as it opened the week lower, only to steadily progress higher throughout the week with yet a strong finish of 96736 at the close of the last NY session. Riding upon the prevailing USD weakness which was amplified by the ratings downgrade later in the week, AU extended its correction towards the 97 price level, despite the preference and commentary provided by the RBA.<br />
<br />
As such, this places AU in a position to possibly extend higher than current levels, however with NFP due long with CPI figures in the latter part of the week, AU may possibly just consolidate or retrace lower ahead of economic data, especially given the weaker CPI forecast. So far AU has already provided a decent correction from the low 88 region, which therefore, places AU on watch for rejection upon further advancement higher. Domestic data will be important in determining direction, however will share the spotlight with the USD, who still have centre stage. This week, UJ opened at 98305 which upon a dip to 98092, reversed north, reaching a high of 98696 before retreating back within range at 98363. A break of this level then saw UJ find new support at the 23% level, which boosted UJ to 98999, forming a double top just under the 99 price level. This then led to a prominent decline from 98999 to 97551, with price ending the week consolidating around the lows at 97790.</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br />
</span> The US has so far delivered a series of non supportive events for the USD. From the postponement of tapering in September, to the Fiscal Crisis and then there was the US government shutdown. The lack of key US economic data also didn't help the situation for the USD either. If there was even any plan to seek momentary relief, this was shot down further by the announcement of the first US ratings downgrade issued late last week. However, with the US government back to business as usual and key US economic data now on the economic calendar, there is the potential to see some favourable changes this week. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>98010</b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What toa look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 98152 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 97693 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A break above 98010 will promote bullish momentum level with a long entry above 98152. This will open up to the following targets: 98584, 98778 and 99 (psychological level). Breaking above 99 will expose 99514 and 100066.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alternatively, a break through 97693(23%) and 97551 will see UJ target the following levels:97161, 96948 and 96616.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> </o:p><o:p> </o:p> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 98584, T2: 98778, T3: 99 T4:99514 </div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 97161, T2: 96948, T3: 96616</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Home Loans (14 Oct), RBA Meeting Minutes, Westpac Leading Index (15 Oct), NAB Business Confidence (17 Oct) </div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com.</span></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
</h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-57226546593996127552013-10-13T21:57:00.003-07:002013-10-14T05:53:49.042-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 14 October 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQC6VtPOknic9yZr7XtlNzxMqy2cKoC2WVI9TxOyQVf4YuTcWSNVkZLbDG5DNA4p8JErTcQ2v3bzIjdVdr3q_YKZhBKq38xh_itacwFlamAad0S5uyEo3U3qpLZeo7SOMrVF1JmTytT4I/s1600/GU+14+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQC6VtPOknic9yZr7XtlNzxMqy2cKoC2WVI9TxOyQVf4YuTcWSNVkZLbDG5DNA4p8JErTcQ2v3bzIjdVdr3q_YKZhBKq38xh_itacwFlamAad0S5uyEo3U3qpLZeo7SOMrVF1JmTytT4I/s320/GU+14+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">GU opened the week at </span>16020, making its way to a high of 161234 ahead of the release of the first installment of domestic data which was forecasted to show an improvement across all of its economic figures. However, the results of weaker figures, surprised the markets, triggering a major sell off after the creation of a double top at the highs. <br />
<br />
This then saw the pair drop dramatically by nearly 200 pips from 161197 to a new low of 159224. Following this, was the announcement by the BOE in regards to the Interest Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Facility, which once again showed no change. This provided a small bound of relief from its stagnant position, pushing GU back to 159973 from a low of 159133. However, this was short lived as sellers, stepped in upon its approach to 160, pushing price back towards the mid range, closing the NY session at 159524.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>159825<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 160009 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 159228(break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 160009 will promote another bullish attempt to the topside and a break above this level will bring the following targets into view: 160401, 160821 and 161238.<br />
<br />
Alternatively,if GU breaks below 159825, look for an entry below at 159228. A continuation below this level will see the following targets come into play: 159072, 158664 and 158230.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 160401, T2: 160821, T3: 161238<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 159072, T2: 158864, T3: 158230<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><span style="text-align: justify;">CPI, PPI, DCLG House Price Index, Retail Price Index, (Oct 15), Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings (Oct 16), Retail Sales (Oct 17)</span></td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4OA7E5Myx-0B_KrtDpinDKWW3Yt018ww2ZusM2X8G1BMVghgWTvDeLKdme6AWfHiUxdw_sQz31RYWvD03_9iaAzfuAOj8-Fl33D9J9bvrvKAf5cCowVxCiS9nLtq66um328AZbTF9oak/s1600/eu+14+OCT+TS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4OA7E5Myx-0B_KrtDpinDKWW3Yt018ww2ZusM2X8G1BMVghgWTvDeLKdme6AWfHiUxdw_sQz31RYWvD03_9iaAzfuAOj8-Fl33D9J9bvrvKAf5cCowVxCiS9nLtq66um328AZbTF9oak/s320/eu+14+OCT+TS.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
EU started week in positive form, opening the Asia session stronger at 135637. However, price remained locked in consolidation until the 9th October when EU finally broke down, falling from a high of 136041 to a low of 134850 , where support was eventually found. EU once again attempted to continue the downtrend, however support was found upon its approach towards the mid 134800 region. This then took price back up towards 135810, which subsequently met with rejection, taking price back towards the 76% level (135322). EU settled at 135400 towards the close of the NY session.<br />
<br />
With the ECB once re-iterating a subdued outlook for the Euro zone economy, this does support the ECB's view for a slow recovery. However in the meantime, EU along with the other majors will continue to look at the developments in the US, in order to direct its more immediate move. Look for re-tests in this upper region, along with any sign of weakness for short opportunities. Should EU continue with a move higher, this will still keep the pair within a corrective view.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>135660<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 135810 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 135173 (break below)</b><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
A break above 1355660 will see EU attempt another move higher into the 136 area. This may be a potential topping area should a catalyst present itself.A break above 135810 will open up the following targets: 136010, 136286 and 136774.<br />
<br />
<span style="text-align: justify;">Alternatively, a break through 135347 (DP) will see 135323(23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 134985, 134442 and 133956.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 136010, T2: 136286 T3: 136774<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 134985, T2: 134442 T3: 133956<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Eurogroup Meeting, Industrial Production (Oct 14), EcoFin Meeting, ZEW Survey (Oct 15), CPI (Oct 16) </div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbSRsVUBbGNEbkKmxAd4NXHueJ4KteFi4QZkQR3EJZLl7PrCs8D06PLfnGnhG1QNtr6Nbzjen2_71OUsEqd5_2x1ARubmzCiZwf2uadHYT3raf4ErCLs0FPva0O5yLWAo6xUbzUxQqI1k/s1600/AU+14+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbSRsVUBbGNEbkKmxAd4NXHueJ4KteFi4QZkQR3EJZLl7PrCs8D06PLfnGnhG1QNtr6Nbzjen2_71OUsEqd5_2x1ARubmzCiZwf2uadHYT3raf4ErCLs0FPva0O5yLWAo6xUbzUxQqI1k/s320/AU+14+oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
Once again it was a top week for AU who once again defied the odds with a strong finish at the very end. However, this follows the significant drop made during the week, in response to a weaker employment change figure, which saw AU fall from the mid 94 area to a low of 93887. However, this was short lived once buyers came on to the scene, pushing AU back to the highs post data. Locked in a top consolidation around 94712, AU closed the NY session at 94640.<br />
<br />
The current resilience of the AUD, does suggest further upward movement towards a top, with the 95 area being the first point of resistance. With the RBA meeting minutes due later this week along with a few other economic data figures, the AUD is bound to react to its domestic data and new commentary issued by the RBA.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>94723<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 948500 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL:94300 (break below)</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
AU needs to test 94723. If this level breaks, then a long entry at 948500 will confirm bullish moment and bring the following targets into view: 95004, 95396 and 95969.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a break through 94435(DP) will see AU attempt a move lower with the next support level at 94458 (23%). A break through 94340 will open up the following targets: 94070, 93500 and 93120.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 95004, T2: 95396 , T3: 95969<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 94070, T2: 93500, T3: 93120<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Home Loans (Oct 14), RBA Meeting Notes, Westpac Leading Index (Oct 15), NAB Business Confidence (Oct 17), RBA Speech (Oct 18)</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNrsVAquwmtP2jkb8jKaI_kE-Je992sOHA6VXBaj-vGQkx3LRO2S7vF1-_tYtYnkgrKFwhOyhmoYQql7hY17G6kd7OrziMkxSUscZIcvXypwGWWt2bsfb1KZck7fFZWmO3YZpREcveuno/s1600/AU+14+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNrsVAquwmtP2jkb8jKaI_kE-Je992sOHA6VXBaj-vGQkx3LRO2S7vF1-_tYtYnkgrKFwhOyhmoYQql7hY17G6kd7OrziMkxSUscZIcvXypwGWWt2bsfb1KZck7fFZWmO3YZpREcveuno/s320/AU+14+oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">UJ opened the week at
97197, starting the week with a decline to 9655. From here UJ then engaged in steep uptrend, taking price from a low of 96556 to a high of 98587. The pair offered very little pullback as it rallied alongside the US indexes who closed the week in positive territory. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US">With the US continuing to sort out its Fiscal Crisis, the USD remains on tentative alert in preparation for the announcement of an outcome. The low of 96556. DS3 became the turning point in the prevailing downtrend, which upon reaching this level, saw UJ reverse its position back north in line with current market sentiment. A continuation of its bullish form this week will be dependent on the upcoming developments from the US government. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>98427</b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 98587 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 98000 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A break above 98427 will promote bullish momentum level with a long entry above 98587. This will open up to the following targets: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alternatively, a break through 97387 (DP) will see the first test of support at 97071 at the 23% level (current position) with a break through this level exposing the</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
following targets: 96928, 96454 and 960183</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> </o:p><o:p> </o:p> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 98971, T2: 99400, T3: 100225</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 97695, T2: 96870, T3: 96422</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Industrial Production (Oct 15), MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Market Index, Fed Beige Book (Oct 16), Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, JPY Foreign Bond Investment, JPY Foreign Bond Investment in Stocks (Oct 17), BOJ Speech, CB Leading Indicator (Oct 18)<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">W</span><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">ve updates and tweets on currencies, market outlook, potential intra-day trade setups and more.</span></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com.</span></div>
</h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
</h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-13008723158787373592013-10-07T14:40:00.002-07:002013-12-01T04:14:45.152-08:00Market Analysis: WC 7 October 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
Last week saw some strong movement among the majors with the Pound finally surrendering its position as the performance leader with its declined from a top of 162595 down to 160 towards the end of the week. This is of course, while playing "Freaky Friday" with the AUD, who stood as last week's winner, maintaining its resilient stance above its counterparts. This week poses as an important week for AUD, with the Unemployment Rate and Unemployment change due in the coming days. Most certainly, this could be the catalyst to push AU towards the direction of parity, where it currently seems poised go, whilst holding above 94. Looking at the other markets, the US indexes rose in the earlier part of the week while interestingly, the US debt situation has recently attracted the attention of bargain investors taking advantage of current US stock prices. With all eyes on the US as they continue with their deliberation, the financial markets remain on standby and ready to respond.</div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-align: justify;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GPBUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZym9Hmxrw4k-u9ts7F0Acd-BqUjK14oVHz6Ad_wlirZSD7FSshwFS5QaO2oc_YxMWBkWJQOu2qMt4eLkXgcCPXOwdYhVQwNCYjHgqOoQW3_L0CLeIMHKlt-Z7h1Hzsqctckp2MNUgnE/s1600/gbpusdh1+4+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZym9Hmxrw4k-u9ts7F0Acd-BqUjK14oVHz6Ad_wlirZSD7FSshwFS5QaO2oc_YxMWBkWJQOu2qMt4eLkXgcCPXOwdYhVQwNCYjHgqOoQW3_L0CLeIMHKlt-Z7h1Hzsqctckp2MNUgnE/s320/gbpusdh1+4+oct.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcq78SnT33yhwMWr3G37x5txa6J4g5ZBXpZ9-XHwalvK_yTEbIhLzW0uok6JsIOlVPboIePQSsnFbj1zTgQ8MZ9gXDlmMxxNOWsZtusWfk42wNxVWkxxaSxS0jZcjqqAJTO0j3Ss88m4/s1600/gbpusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
GU opened the week at 161404, continuing the ascension in the previous NY session from a bottom of 160616 and reaching 161722 before pausing at current levels. This then led to a retracement back to the open of 161404 in preparation for a continuation to the topside. Reaching a high of 162596, price consolidated around the highs for the next few hours which then saw GU move back to 161639. Finding support at 160, GU made another attempt back north reaching a high of 162507, which saw price maintain around 16219 (76% level) moving into the next trading session. This formed a top consolidation, with price pausing briefly at 161743, before breaking lower and finding refuge at 161539 (previous day’s low), as indecision set in, having broken through 162000. GU then proceeded lower towards 161187 (DS1), creating more ambitious targets as price continued its decline to 160970 (DS2) breaking the psychological 161 level and reaching a low of 160323. This tsaw price move back to 160779 and once again meet with rejection, sending GU back south with its sights set on 160323 (DS3). GU then proceeded to power through DS3, reaching a low of 160046, closing the NY session slightly higher at 160570.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The British Pound resumed the opposite side of the stage this week, having been the strongest performer last week to this week being the weakest performer, as poorer PMI figures provided the catalyst for profit taking and a move back to 160 by the end of Friday's NY session. This followed the positive start to the week that saw an increase in Mortgage Approvals from 61.350k (forecast) to 62.226, prompting the move higher to reaching a new top of 162596. However the bullish momentum was stumped with the release of PMI figures on the 2nd and 3rd October, showing a reduction in Manufacturing PMI from 57.2 to 56.7 (forecasted to improve to 57.3) and a poorer Construction PMI figure which printed a weaker figure of of 58.9 vs. 59.1 (also forecasted to reflect an improvement of 59.2). In response, the Pound weakened across the board, resulting in a sell off against all of its counterparts respectively.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Turning to the outlook of the British economy, the poor PMI figures were like a stone in its path as it halted the streak of its most recent output of consistent positive data. Therefore, like the earlier GDP figure, this has not greatly impacted the current positive view of the British economy and the direction of its recovery. In other area of the economy, the construction industry (as seen with previous PMI figures) has shown great a steady incline of growth, that has led to speculation for GDP growth in the upcoming third quarter. However, alongside this as mentioned last week, are speculative concerns regarding a housing bubble given that the UK's housing sector has shown an increase of 0.5% from August, with housing prices higher by 2.4%. The month of August represented the highest issue of loans since February which is a positive. In regards to this, Mark Carney has made a point of addressing the general public of their financial commitments in respect to affordability and the consideration of increasing interest rates once the economy has recovered to a suitable level.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at the charts, GU created a double top at 162596 (Weekly high) with the first summit to 162595 on the 1st October and the reversal carried out on the second rejection of the move to the top on the 2nd October. This was inspired by weaker PMI figures which shifted the momentum, providing the catalyst to change directions, while promoting profit taking. With GU having advanced over 200 pips since the 24th September, a pullback or correction of some sort was imminent as the market looked to off load an accumulated stack of buy orders given the weaker domestic data and in light of the looming debt ceiling which still holds much uncertainty. However as we enter a new week, hopes of a resolution roll into the next few days while the US continue trying to resolve their issues.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This new week, GU opens higher at 160454 under the 23% level (160454). With the BOE announcing their Interest Rate decision and any changes to their Asset Purchasing Facility program on October 10, it is possible to see GU remaining subdued until the approach of critical date, which may be the catalyst to instigate another major move in GU. A break above 160807 will see 161366 (76%) as the next test point which may contain GU within its current downtrend. If this is the case, look for rejection and a move back through 160807 with support at 160454. However, if GU breaks above 161366, this may provide a long opportunity to re-test higher corrective levels. Above 161774, the next resistance level to watch is 163148. Continuing north from DP, the higher targets lie at: 161597, 163148 and 163956. Should price break through 160454, this will open GU to an extended fall to the following targets: 159237, 158480 and 156877.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3ohR-oFBW-N5YJ9pxcKB9NacWM8OIwq0sXcT7qkc0ASMarGl7dX6lO3JbXIaLAQ21xolbMGb-WlbL3DhyphenhyphenSL4OkHVRkjb-gZDZSciwCMt1RjO7OIJx1Enmz6DOB4ch9I7p7b8_hxEtj_0/s1600/eurusdh1+7+october.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3ohR-oFBW-N5YJ9pxcKB9NacWM8OIwq0sXcT7qkc0ASMarGl7dX6lO3JbXIaLAQ21xolbMGb-WlbL3DhyphenhyphenSL4OkHVRkjb-gZDZSciwCMt1RjO7OIJx1Enmz6DOB4ch9I7p7b8_hxEtj_0/s320/eurusdh1+7+october.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<div class="MsoNormal">
EU opened the week around 40 pips lower than its NY close (just under 135) and remained range bound between (134803 and 135058) before breaking out higher with a bullish marubozu (low of 134938 and high of 135509). From here, EU created a higher base around 135270 before continuing higher as a bullish 3 candle step saw EU meet with the range top in preparation for another breakout. This then saw sellers upon its approach to 136. Rejection was seen at 135867, pushing price down to 135434, where it stayed until descending lower to 135270. From here, EU then placed a target on 135 reaching a low of 135070 just above the round figure. Price consolidated here at the lows as it decided on its next move. This saw EU break out back higher in a spectacular fashion, creating prominent bullish candle (low of 135041 and high of 135828) leading to a push higher and breaking above 136 as it reached a high of 136066, before retreating back just under 136. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Having tested 136, EU continued to consolidate around 135928 (23%) as it proceeded with a slow ascension north, reaching a high of 136458 which immediately met with rejection with the next candle. This saw price retreat back below to the 76% level (136294), where it remained contained within a tight range between 136156 and 136307 moving into the last day of the trading week. However the 23% level was only a resting point for EU, which after 5 hours saw EU finally break lower through DS1 (135810) and continue down to DS2 (135440) touching a low of 135379, before settling at the lows round 13553, closing the NY session at 135549.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to events, the Monetary Policy Conference provided good insight into economic view held by the ECB, who highlighted that inflation still remained low, with credit activity "subdued" and unemployment still sitting at a high level. As such the ECB expect for Interest Rates being kept on hold for "an extended period of time" especially in light of global economic conditions which as they stand, will not lend favourably to assisting with the improvement of timing for the eurozone economic recovery. Also last week, developments in the Italian political arena saw Italy's Prime Minister Enrico Letta win the confidence vote, keeping his coalition in tact.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Short term money market still remain on "watch" for the ECB, who have stated that will be prepared to do whatever is necessary to align money market rates with price stability. Though this does not hold the same level of attentiveness for the appreciation of the Euro, which the ECB acknowledges but does not put forward a priority concern. While economic growth is expected to continue improving at a "slow pace", this means thatwe will unlikely see changes in monetary policy in the near future, though, this still does not rule out a rate cut if it necessary. But with rates t a low level, this not only assists with money market rates but will also be more beneficial for its current position as it continues with its recovery amongst global uncertainty and lower global demand. This of course, combined with managing its own internal problems in the areas of political, social and financial. One potential issue that has received some recognition is the state of the banking sector and its ties to potential further bailouts, along with the exhaustion of borrowing capacity by sovereign states.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When looking at EU over a longer time period, we can see that the formation of a bull run from the 5th September, instigated from a low of 131040, leading to a higher consolidation area around the 13281 price point on the 12th September. Opening the next week around 60 pips higher, showed that USD weakness was still in action, giving EU the opportunity to continue its bull trend, which was further bolstered by the breakout initiated on the 18th September in response to the FOMC tapering announcement which s saw EU surge to a high of 135409. It is from this date, that we saw EU locked in a steady range type movement within the confinement of the lower to mid 135 region. Only upon the ECB announcement of maintaining rates on hold at 0.5%, did EU find the additional momentum to reach above 136 to a high of 136458 on Friday. Interestingly, when looking a price movement patterns, the recent breakdown from the high 136 area on Friday brought price back in line with DS2 (around 135549), aligns with the tops of the previous peaks formed throughout the month of September. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The recent rise in EU can be attributed to its response to the output of positive domestic data and recent events discussing the progressive developments in the Eurozone, extending from the optimism brought forward upon the earlier announcement of the Eurozone's "exit" from its recession. This of course being the key turning point for the recent price movement in the EU. However a reality check may be pending upon comments made by the ECB indicating that the Eurozone still has work to do and is not expecting a robust or change in its outlook in the near future, nor over improvements regarding the timing of its recovery. This is not only due to expectations and forecasts within the domestic economy but also in consideration of the current global environment which has no positive influence in encouraging a stronger or speedier recovery. This not only references the US but also the emerging markets.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to my levels, a break above 135800 will see the first test of resistance at 136093. Another attempt above 136 cannot be ruled out if the US disappoint with developments in their own domestic affairs especially and a sudden bout of weakness takes over whilst anticipation over a resolution is expected to bring relief. However, I still see any movement north as corrective and favour an opportunity to short. If EU does break above 136093, the first test will be 136194. Breaking above this will open up to a re-test of 136313, followed by 136870 and then 137290 (or around the 137 figure). Alternatively, a break through 135800 (DP) will see 135599 (23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 135108, 134720 and 134050.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_vKREQISdNNkMSHyZ50zegbSE8PgzONLAQf-tsExMUCiLmn1KCMd-pbl0Z2K30dVOQTMG4WYa_uNZ-kpwB6WW94slpniC0feoywVT1KXGtWnlIavuq8TE6JOgFXGGVHLzbrD40Xn-l78/s1600/audusdm30+7+october.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_vKREQISdNNkMSHyZ50zegbSE8PgzONLAQf-tsExMUCiLmn1KCMd-pbl0Z2K30dVOQTMG4WYa_uNZ-kpwB6WW94slpniC0feoywVT1KXGtWnlIavuq8TE6JOgFXGGVHLzbrD40Xn-l78/s320/audusdm30+7+october.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
AU opened the week at 93078, continuing on from the last NY session which closed at 93113. The start of the Asia session saw AU’s movement quite subdued, breaking through 93 first and reaching a low of 92802 before moving back higher in line with the open, where it ranged for half of the Asia session before breaking higher reach to test above 93 reaching a high of 93344. This then saw AU pull back slightly to 93110 in preparation for another attempt, reached a slightly higher mark at 93539. However the approach of this mid 93 area, saw sellers enter upon this second attempt, leading to steady decline back to the open which prompted a further push south, penetrating 93 and reaching a low of 92875, just 7.3 pips from the previous low. Closing the candle at 92960, this produced a potential bearish continuation but was rejected with the next candle, which saw buyers intervene at 92966, shortly leading to a breakout and producing a bullish 3 candle move, taking AU above 94 to a high of 94227. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Creating top consolidation around this area, AU touched a new high of 94346, before breaking lower producing a bearish candle (high of 94259 and low of 93849), followed by a consolidation that continued into the next day. AU then broke lower from the range, falling from 94080 down to 93682, which followed through with a further decline reaching a low of 93370, where it found support. From here, AU began its travel back north, aligning back at the 23% level (93778) and continuing higher, meeting back in line with the previous range at 93920. This then saw price consolidate just under 94 for much of the day as it struggled to break the range in either direction. Moving into the 4th October, AU started to edge slightly higher, reaching the 76% level (94032) where price maintained briefly before breaking higher, producing a break out candle from 94001 with a high of 94234. This then paved the way for a continuation north to a high of 94471, followed by a small retracement to 94218 before a re-attempt higher saw AU meet with resistance at 94582, creating a double top that led to a small retracement back to DR2 where price finally settled with a final price of 94348.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
No doubt that the RBA has been recognised for its commendable job in containing the impact of global conditions while addressing the internal factors that have contributed to the decline in the Australian economy. This brings us back to 2008, when Australia was the first country to post out of a recession from the GFC – not that Australia was even truly in a recession - not in the sense that the other advanced countries were. Though part of this can be attributed to temporary changes such as the restructuring of the workforce as well other initiatives acted out by the RBA in preparation for a possible negative impact on the domestic economy. Once again, we have seen this action take hold as global uncertainty resurfaces, and efforts are exerted to minimize any adverse effects that may ricochet from global uncertainty. However, even given the stronger disposition, as the domestic economy starts to show improvements, much like the other advanced countries working towards economic growth and stability, the RBA will look not only at domestic performance but at the current global economic position as well. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
So far, previous cash rates have factored in the current global situation in an effort to offer a type of protection for the economy. This level of caution will be adjusted accordingly, however, this will be based upon further reassurance in both areas, that will be factored into a building a case for the eventual raising of the cash rate. Expanding on this, the RBA see 2014 to hold more promise of improvements in both the global economic arena and domestic economy. This does lend to the idea of a possible rate rise to come in the future and Australia to be the first.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to the outlook, domestic growth is expected to remain under par in the near term future largely due to the decline in the mining sector, while a depreciating currency is still preferred, to assist with the economic recovery. Earlier adjustments to monetary policy have been noted to be producing a positive outcome in the areas of investment and recent economic data such as the AIG Manufacturing PMI printing stronger figures for the first time in 2 years, along with improvements in retail sales, consumer confidence have contributed to a positive outlook for Australia. Taking this into consideration along with the view of a potential rate rise in 2014 has sparked recent buying interest in the AUD and until today has seen AU stand defiantly towards the upper region of its recent price range. However looking at things objectively and more "near-term", the RBA are not looking to make any move towards changes in monetary policy without the demonstration of further consistent economic data supporting stronger evidence of economic growth. This is of course also taking into consideration the position of the global economy at that time as well.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at AU on the daily chart, we can clearly see the pair in the midst of a correction, having broken above the top of 92955, which currently sees price now aligning with the previous pullback in the long term downtrend. As such, this retracement does present a nice top formation should price reject from current levels, however moving higher, the mid 95 - 97 also sets up as a possible topping area. Moving to the 4 hour chart, we see a completed bullish retracement back to the previous point of break instigating the fall from 94502 to a low of 92802. It is possible for AU to continue trading with the parameters set up on the 4 hour chart while on stand by with US developments otherwise this week does present the potential for the currency pair to advance with support from the Unemployment Rate and Unemployment change due later this week. However, until then, it is likely to see AU either stay subdued at currently levels or sell off slightly prior to the announcement. Both figures are forecasted to produce a positive outcome (with the Unemployment rate unchanged), therefore, pre-announcement market sentiment looks in favour of AU long, seeking a top at the higher key levels for now. This of course can change if the US come to the table.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to my levels, a break above 94416 (76%) will promote bullish momentum and bring the following targets into view:94706, 95097, 95629. Alternatively, should a break lower through 94178 (DP), will see 94043(23%) tested for support. Breaking this level will expose 93797, 93280 and then 92877. If AU does make a run for the 95 - 97 area, this would be a good candidate for a topping area.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span lang="EN-US"> </span> </span></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu3eI6IsOaStfsEpgqV9G66LGfZNIrv_M60aPP4rm_sUHjdNAeg49KVFAlcYIiTsTyQgaM7DtI5R48-x-vwcjr6F02kVUjn9oWs3P9cJshwrWDf-b8IJ4-xjcMsXHXbf_0ZvEWeTXwiNc/s1600/usdjpyh1+7+october.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu3eI6IsOaStfsEpgqV9G66LGfZNIrv_M60aPP4rm_sUHjdNAeg49KVFAlcYIiTsTyQgaM7DtI5R48-x-vwcjr6F02kVUjn9oWs3P9cJshwrWDf-b8IJ4-xjcMsXHXbf_0ZvEWeTXwiNc/s320/usdjpyh1+7+october.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
UJ opened the week at 97639 having tested the bottom, and breaking out higher printing a bullish marabozu (low of 97653 and high of 98122) that saw price push higher to 98315 where price consolidated before attempting to a move north reaching a high of 98720. This immediately met with rejection with the next candle sending UJ all the way back to a low of 976365 where price found support. From here, UJ then bounced back up from this level to a high of 98290 that followed with price maintaining its position around current levels contained within a range between 97749 – 98120 before finally breaking lower on the 2nd October to a low of 97137.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
UJ then attempted a small bounce back to 97562 which then saw price retrace back to the 38% (97282). Holding as support, UJ then made another attempt to the topside reaching a high of 97863 that immediately rejected with the next candle, sending UJ declining from a high of 97863 to a low of 96923, breaking 23% (97145). Having pierced 97, UJ found support around this round number which then followed price consolidating around the 23% before attempting a small rise, taking UJ above 50% level (97394) with a final close at 97448.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the latest release issued by the BOJ, it was stated that Japan's economy (3rd largest) is growing at a moderate pace. Recent data has also pointed to improvements in the domestic economy such as the rise in CPI rose, along with other improvements such as business confidence and foreign investment. As such, the BOJ kept Interest Rates on hold at 0.1% last week, standing by the affirmation that the Japanese economy was indeed recovering and thus there was no further need to ease policy. In addition, this also saw the approval of the corporate sales tax increase, which earlier in the week, raised concerns over its impact on the appreciating Yen. However, the BOJ have now moved forward with the decision to go ahead as planned, keeping in mind the 2% inflation target which will continue to be monitored. In regards to the global outlook, Japan is also closely monitoring the movements in the US as well as the emerging markets and exporting economies which may potentially have an impact on their own economy and their recovery.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Moving on to the US, all eyes are on the US shutdown which still continues to take the spotlight. With October 17 approaching, there is anticipation for some sort of resolution or development to be announced in the coming days. Until then, UJ stands very weak while Yen continues to act as a safe haven currency against the USD. Developments in the US or a favourable resolution will see this quickly change, but until then, it is likely to UJ contained within range until an appropriate catalyst is presented. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at the charts, the 4 hour chart still shows movement within a downtrend. However with the daily still showing UJ locked within a range, it is very possible to see UJ move north should the USD receive strength. This is a big week for US economic data which includes last week's postponed NFP figure due out on Oct 11. Currently the 1 hour shows UJ sitting at DS1 which is also around the previous day's low at 96946. Movement between this level and 97390 would be a good range to intra day trade while UJ stays in the lower band of this price movement. Breaking above 97349 could see UJ move north towards 98, though I am weary of USD strength without a proper catalyst in place and see that any push higher may just result in price remaining contained while uncertainty looms. Any surge among its counterparts will need to be inspired by domestic events, while the US deliberate over their Fiscal Budget. A bounce from the 23% level (97071) could produce a nice intraday 30 -40 pip return, while breaking lower, will bring targets within the 96 price range into view.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to my levels, with price at current levels, a break above 97474 will promote bullish momentum level, opening up to the following targets: 97865, 98353 and 98841. Alternatively, a break lower through 97387 (DP) will see the first test of support at 97071 at the 23% level (current position) with a break through this level exposing the following targets: 96928, 96454 and 960183<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<hr />
<br />
Want to keep up to date with our posts? We are now on Twitter. Follow<span style="background-color: #f1c232;"> @GFXTRADER</span> and receive updates throughout the week.LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-80020535234251607422013-10-06T21:00:00.001-07:002013-10-14T05:54:26.487-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 7 October 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwgIx0_8qceMYXVrvL7cXz3gDXiFg5i8HbZIlRhY4Xql0StnSpJRX2E7QO0MVmIbdjr6Qr7aFkubDsGFB5G2aVcQcQDyj5ZH7R1BgQ5uo_FzV1TohErkTRbBwQGWte2N-n_Nodhhx774g/s1600/GU+7+oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwgIx0_8qceMYXVrvL7cXz3gDXiFg5i8HbZIlRhY4Xql0StnSpJRX2E7QO0MVmIbdjr6Qr7aFkubDsGFB5G2aVcQcQDyj5ZH7R1BgQ5uo_FzV1TohErkTRbBwQGWte2N-n_Nodhhx774g/s320/GU+7+oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
GU opened the week at 161404, continuing the ascension from a bottom of 160616 to reaching a high of 162596 by mid week. Forming an intermediary top, price declined dramatically inspired by weaker PMI figures, which saw some profit taking upon the approach to the next key level. Falling from the high 162 area to a low of 160046, GU settled towards the end of the NY session closing the week slightly higher at 160570.<br />
<br />
This week, GU opens higher at 160454 though still under the 23% level (160454). With the BOE announcing their Interest Rate decision and any changes to their Asset Purchasing Facility program on October 10, it is possible to see GU remaining subdued until the approach of critical date, which may be the catalyst to instigate another major move in GU.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;"><br />
</span> <br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>160807 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 161366(break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 160454(break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 160807 will see 161366 (76%) as the next test point which may contain GU within its current downtrend. If this is the case, look for rejection and a move back through 160807 with support at 160454.<br />
<br />
If GU breaks above 161366, this may provide a long opportunity to re-test higher corrective levels. Above 161774, the next resistance level to watch is 161774. Continuing north, the higher targets lie at: 161597, 163171 and 163956.<br />
<br />
Should price break through 160454, this will open GU to an extended fall to the following targets: 159237, 158480 and 156877.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 161597, T2: 163171, T3: 163956<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 159237, T2: 158480, T3: 156877<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461">Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, GDP (Oct 9), BOE Interest Rate Decision, BOE Asset Purchase Facility (Oct 10)</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmt09FTu4-pEseUIYjIA2Dvcb5ZUD_o_Y3xsrSNN1y-p6mVqiCj5uFMKVNv4lNHFgVd4Aw03Xgec9Y5S4gBxA96fXAoegUAYQPnzs5i-mWKOz-hCGMrV11PyljLqIl91ZZdWBXwsKEMGA/s1600/EU+7+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmt09FTu4-pEseUIYjIA2Dvcb5ZUD_o_Y3xsrSNN1y-p6mVqiCj5uFMKVNv4lNHFgVd4Aw03Xgec9Y5S4gBxA96fXAoegUAYQPnzs5i-mWKOz-hCGMrV11PyljLqIl91ZZdWBXwsKEMGA/s320/EU+7+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
It was an interesting week for EU who made a new high to 136458 on the back of the ECB Interest Rate decision, only to decline back to the mid 135 area by Friday's NY session. Last week saw developments in the Italian political arena which saw Italy's Prime Minister Enrico Letta win the confidence vote, keeping his coalition in tact while in a news press conference following the Interest Rate decision, the ECB re-affirmed its current economic outlook and expectations. This week EU opens the Asia session higher at 135637, currently above the 23% level (135999) with a test of DP coming up ahead. I remain more biased to a bearish outlook for this pair.<br />
<br /></div>
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>135800<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 136093 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 135599 (break below)</b><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
A break above 135800 will see the first test of resistance at 136093. Another attempt above 136 cannot be ruled out if the US disappoint with developments in their own domestic affairs especially and a sudden bout of weakness takes over whilst anticipation over a resolution is expected to bring relief. However, I still see any movement north as corrective and favour an opportunity to short.<br />
<br />
If EU does break above 136093, the first test will be 136194. Breaking above this will open up to a re-test of 136313, followed by 136870 and then 137290 (or around the 137 figure). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Alternatively, a break through 135800 (DP) will see 135599 (23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 135108, 134720 and 134050.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 136313, T2: 136870 T3: 137290<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 135108, T2: 134720 T3: 134050<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct 7), German Trade Balance, German Factory Orders(Oct 8), German Industrial Production, Monthly ECB Report, ECB Speech (Oct 9), German CPI, German Harmonised Consumer Prices (Oct 11) </div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJNYLCHY4ubGGVIrbgybAE7yS8GkJnDUfynw1wxLFlfkFSp0W5QPc2c8nVoteiW2pdubQqNgYPKZ3NaLrQeKfHNRryrMV0sRi1xPIbVbqq1nxd1JWVbw3XsrxKc1xwmn5xVd4AV9RhTIY/s1600/AU+7+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJNYLCHY4ubGGVIrbgybAE7yS8GkJnDUfynw1wxLFlfkFSp0W5QPc2c8nVoteiW2pdubQqNgYPKZ3NaLrQeKfHNRryrMV0sRi1xPIbVbqq1nxd1JWVbw3XsrxKc1xwmn5xVd4AV9RhTIY/s320/AU+7+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
AU was the best performer last week, tipping the scale against its counterparts with a bold finish at higher end of the spectrum at 94348. The RBA kept rates on hold at 2.5% once again, spurring buying interest as speculation entered regarding future monetary decisions regarding possible rate hikes in 2014, whilst commentary offered by the RBA within their Monetary Policy statement left many interpreting the RBA to not see the appreciation of the domestic currency a major issue (given that it is still lower in value than April 2013). As such, there is speculation that we may see the AUD re-test the 95 area and possible higher. If this is the case, I still see this as part of an extended corrective move and will be looking for sellers to enter the arena, guarding the higher key levels.<br />
<br />
Although the RBA has done well with containing its economic decline to a minimum (in comparison to other advanced nations), a rise in the AUD may still encourage the RBA to to look at other options including Interest Rate adjustments should economic performance remain subdued or the domestic currency moves away from assisting with the "re-balancing" of the domestic economy. Currently AU still maintains poised at the top cautiously testing the 76% level in the early Asia session.<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>94178<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 94416 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL:94043 (break below)</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
AU needs to re-test 94178. Once this level has been tested, direction will be set. Look to 94416 (76%). A break above this level will promote bullish momentum and bring the following targets into view:94706, 95097, 95629.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, should AU continue to break lower through 94178 (DP), the next support level to watch is 94043(23%), which will contain AU within its recent bullish run. However breaking this level will expose 93797, 93280 and then 92877.<br />
<br />
I remain bearish on this pair despite the reasons that have seen this pair rise. I do think that any move north will be met with resistance. A push from the US (USD strength) will assist in pushing AU down. However should we see USD weakness set in upon confirmation upon disappointing developments in the US situation, AU may take this opportunity to re-test 95-96. This week remains heavy with data for AU, this will certainly play a significant role as well. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
In conjunction with the levels, also watch for price action around the 94, 95 and 96 round figures.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 94706, T2: 95097 , T3: 95629<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 93797, T2: 93280, T3: 92877<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
NAB Business Conditions, CNY HSCB PMI, Westpac Consumer Confidence (Oct 8), Consumer Inflation Expectations, Unemployment Rate, Employment Change (Oct 10)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEild8BexODui9fVxB2EHmXwjjCDtVGKpOeTiXEpcGIklVFc2T6Tm6nQfm4kuZfzD_rRNAr9kLOR-11kmxBUGuAppIn1H2qts66UlFlADM_YtrNpkMtNPMw1cP1oMtjzYdGctYNLHL6xWRA/s1600/UJ+7+Oct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEild8BexODui9fVxB2EHmXwjjCDtVGKpOeTiXEpcGIklVFc2T6Tm6nQfm4kuZfzD_rRNAr9kLOR-11kmxBUGuAppIn1H2qts66UlFlADM_YtrNpkMtNPMw1cP1oMtjzYdGctYNLHL6xWRA/s320/UJ+7+Oct.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Last week saw UJ decline from a high of 98720 down to the
lower 97 region by the NY session, closing at 97448. With the US is still in
prime focus over their debt ceiling issue, the markets are on close watch as
the October 17 deadline draws closer. This week sees UJ opening the Asia
session lower at 97197, with intra day movement commencing locked in a
consolidation. No doubt that any movement in the US will spurt a momentum in
the USD, however for now, the pair still retains its bearish bias while
uncertainty in the US remains.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Currently UJ is positioned at the 50% level (around 97220),
with the 4 hour chart still showing movement within a downtrend. However with
the daily still showing UJ locked within a range, it is very possible to see UJ
move north should the USD receive strength. This is a big week for US
economic data which includes last week's postponed NFP figure due out on
Oct 11.</div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>97387</b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 97474 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 96946 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A break above 97474 will promote bullish momentum
level which will open up to to the following targets: 97865, 98353 and 98841</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alternatively, a break through 97387 (DP) will see the first
test of support at 97071 at the 23% level (current position) with a break
through this level exposing the</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
following targets: 96928, 96454 and 960183</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> </o:p><o:p> </o:p> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 97865, T2: 98353, T3: 98841</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
T1: 96928, T2: 96454, T3: 960183</div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Consumer Credit Change (Oct 7), Trade Balance (Oct 8), FOMC
Minutes (Oct 9), Export Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 10), NFP,
Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Unemployment Rate, PPI, Retail
Sales, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Index, Business Inventories (Oct 11)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<br /></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">Please note that all trade set ups provided in this
post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any
loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please
feel free to leave a comment or email liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com.</span></div>
</h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
</h2>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-865764511284399312013-09-30T05:06:00.004-07:002013-10-11T20:18:55.014-07:00Market Analysis: WC 30th Sept 2013<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br />
</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Once again, the market remained in risk mode this week,
while weakness to the USD saw majors such as GU and EU make its way back to the
highs. No doubt, that GU was the best performer of the week, while AU
benefited from the ride back to 94 where it met with resistance, taking the
currency pair back to 93 by the end of the week. Meanwhile UJ managed to find
some strength mid week making its way back over 99 (99104), only to decline
back to 98 during Friday's trading session. With the US government
currently in the spotlight (and on a tight deadline to pass their federal
budget by 30th Sept), timing is now of the essence, with a government shutdown
potentially on the cards. However also in focus this week is the Non Farm
Payroll Figure and the Interest Rate Decision for Australia, Europe, Japan and
the US. We kick start with the Australian RBA scheduled for tomorrow,
Tuesday 1st October 2013. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GPBUSD</span></h2>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqJZEKvzEh13_Fk9QO8Ia9ZSTHY2gN-tP2JZ-ADLVaX0dxU_2AiL8VDPoLObxfEu9wHUTMzAjT62ccr6OHLwF9nV0mW_OCyNRUriMwdbeoTYDHmMASM5NmEPSgYh6T74UKRWA95qeae1E/s1600/gbpusdh1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqJZEKvzEh13_Fk9QO8Ia9ZSTHY2gN-tP2JZ-ADLVaX0dxU_2AiL8VDPoLObxfEu9wHUTMzAjT62ccr6OHLwF9nV0mW_OCyNRUriMwdbeoTYDHmMASM5NmEPSgYh6T74UKRWA95qeae1E/s320/gbpusdh1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcq78SnT33yhwMWr3G37x5txa6J4g5ZBXpZ9-XHwalvK_yTEbIhLzW0uok6JsIOlVPboIePQSsnFbj1zTgQ8MZ9gXDlmMxxNOWsZtusWfk42wNxVWkxxaSxS0jZcjqqAJTO0j3Ss88m4/s1600/gbpusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
GU opened the Asia session at a price of 160017, following
on from last week’s NY close at 159949. Starting with a move north, GU steadily
began its ascension to a high of 160719, where price maintained (between 160285
and 160728), before dropping lower on the 24th September in the form of a
prominent bearish candle (high of 160273 and low of 159739). Once the 160
level was broken, GU paused briefly before resuming its move lower,
finding support at 159545 (DS2). From here, GU moved back towards
159906 (DS1), proceeding north and finding temporary resistance at 160217
(23%). With the 23% level now as a temporary ceiling, GU attempted another move
lower, only managing to reach 159787, before buyers stepped in, taking GU back
above 160403 (DP) and then further north to 150728 (78%). GU stayed around the
76% level for most of the trading session on the 25th September in clear
indecision as its next move was contemplated. This resulted in a break
higher to 160956, which immediately faced rejection upon its approach to 161,
sending price down in singular bearish candle (high of 159950 and low of
160348). Pausing briefly at DP, GU continued its move down, breaking DP,
followed by the 23% level (160217), until finding support just under 160 at
159989.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Having re-tested the low of 160, GU reversed back to DP
which once reached, prompted a major breakout upon a news headline, that saw
price surge to a high of 161322, breaking above the psychological 161
level. However, once reached, indecision set in, resulting in a
pull back upon profit taking, representing a bearish 3 candle move. Finding
support around 150728 (78%), buyers stepped in taking GU to a high of
161422, where GU closed the NY session.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at GU at the start of the week, we can see price movement
resuming from break of top resistance made on the 19th September from 161394.
This saw GU break from 161394 to 160768 in a bearish marubozu that followed by
a range type movement as price stayed contained between its effort to reach 160
but with its inability to sustain over 161. As such, the high of 160710
made on the 23rd September aligns with the high of 160663 made on the 20th
September, providing a type of ceiling, that followed with a gradual decline to
a low of 159545 on the 24th September. When observing movement on the 4
hour chart, we can see price intending to resume lower, but changing
direction as price breaks above 160 producing a bullish breakout candle (low of
159887 and high of 160594) in response to the positive data (Distributive Trades
Survey figures exceeding expectations at 34 vs. forecasted 24). This then
brought price back towards 161, but once again was unable to hold, thus
proving the significance of this psychological ceiling, which led to GU
retreating back to the 160217 (23% level) touching a low of 159989. From this
point, it was clear that upon settling in the lower region of 160, this now
held a good possibility for GU to extend the move lower into the 159 region,
having already tested the mid 159 region twice.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
However, the move was disrupted by a news headline quoting
BOE Governor Mark as saying that “he did not see a need for more easing”.
This provided the catalyst for a direction change in favour of the bulls, who
then proceeded to push price above the 161 level. Interestingly, GU met with
resistance at the same level that it initially broke from (top consolidation)
on the 19th September. However, more interesting is the reaction to this
comment which overlooks the second portion of the statement which mentions that
he would change his stance should “the economy falter”. This basically means
that QE is still data dependent and while data remains positive, further QE is
not necessary. However should inconsistency start to emerge in data figures,
this may change the directive of the comment completely.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Since the introduction of forward policy, this has seen a
rise in swap rates which have moved higher along with yields. It has always
been questionable whether this would actually be addressed, given that high
interest rates are not good for a recovering economy. As such, this then places
focus on the asset purchasing facility, which for the last 3 votes has resulted
in “no change” and a positive reaction in the market to follow. However, if
high interest rates start to pose as a problem for the recovering economy, the
BOE may start to consider increasing bond buying as an interim solution. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Aside from this, lies other concerns within the British economy such as a
potential new “housing bubble” as Britain’s Prime Minister looks to move
forward the second phase of an assistance program called “Help to Buy”. While
the intention is sincere in its objective, there is general fear that while
increasing housing debt, this may also inflate the property market which will provide
the adverse outcome, placing home ownership further more out of reach for the
average UK resident.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This then ties in with the domestic currency. Should the property market
appreciate, alongside an appreciating currency, other problems will start to surface
for the economy, given that the UK attracts foreign inflow brought in by
investors who look to buy into growth periods such as an asset or housing
booms. An appreciating currency will make assets more expensive and less
appealing to foreign investors while a rise in assets will be detrimental for
both foreign and domestic investment. In short, not a positive for the UK and
not a positive for a recovering economy.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Moving back to the week’s events, the drop in GDP saw
GU aggressively sell back to the 160 level. This does bring us back to
reality that the reliance on a continual output of positive data may be over
ambitious in expectation, as a negative result can reverse sentiment
quickly. This does also open the to the possibility that consecutive
negative numbers could be enough to cause doubt and reverse current market
sentiment. With this in mind, it is still wise to keep GU within its trading
parameters as it continues on its steep incline, as this will surely meet with
exhaustion should the move be too aggressive, too quickly. I do think there
will be a pullback and a reassessment of direction however, whether this is
before or after a move higher remains to be seen. With price currently around
161442, GU sits in a very delicate position with a possibility of surging
higher towards 162 even to 163 should it maintain its position above 161.
Unless backed by its own positive domestic figures, it is possible that we may
see caution among the majors, until the release of their own domestic data
while also relying on the outcome of the pending US situation. This
may mean that price stays contained within its range for the meantime. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In regards to my levels, a break above 161454 will then see
161904 come into view, followed by 162394 and then 163346. Even with current
moment in favour of risk, there will be sellers at the higher key levels
looking for opportunities to short GU back towards 160. Alternatively, a
bearish scenario will need to see a break lower through 161100 (76%) followed
by a break through 1160925 (DP) and then 160567(23%). Breaking through the
23% level, will expose: the following targets: 160407, 159456 and then 159000.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrdo-yDfQsELhi9_t45fU_oo3DoTSHZrkYdBqs36aWYCsAoiSQY8GoqzuL5KMVgt4H63oU8d0sBGzBsnq9a2AUBh19_8w4waNHyF4ImiDmJ4hAN4grdSODLlcCbyiYx4_E46tZEh6MKU/s1600/eurusdh1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrdo-yDfQsELhi9_t45fU_oo3DoTSHZrkYdBqs36aWYCsAoiSQY8GoqzuL5KMVgt4H63oU8d0sBGzBsnq9a2AUBh19_8w4waNHyF4ImiDmJ4hAN4grdSODLlcCbyiYx4_E46tZEh6MKU/s320/eurusdh1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
EU opened the week higher at 135457, maintaining its
movement around current levels before a rejection higher led to a push
lower, taking EU from a high of 135426 to a low of 13578 in the form of a
prominent bearish candle. This then followed by a steady move down, finding
support upon reaching a low of 134790. Supported at DP, this inspired another
bullish breakout printing a bullish marubozu (134913 and high of 135140) that
saw price stop just under reaching the 76% level. Holding as momentary
resistance, price then retraced back to DP, where it attempted to replicate the
same move north, only to meet with the same fate upon resistance at the 76%
level. Now, having met with double rejection, this opened the pathway for a
further decline which saw EU break 135, reaching a low of 135639 on the
25th September. This then followed by a small bounce back to 134850 (23%)
which upon providing minor resistance, saw GU once again retrace back
lower towards DS1.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unable to penetrate DS1, EU instead found buyers at this
level who proceeded to push EU back above DP in 3 bullish candles back to the
76% level. Price paused here for a few hours, locked in a small consolidation,
that then led to a breakout, reaching a high of 13568. This immediately
followed by a consolidation between the high and 76% level, before proceeding
to break lower on the 26th September. This saw GU first pause at DP, before
resuming towards the 23% level, meeting back in line with the low of 134719.
Still unable to break the low, EU once again found refuge at the 23% level
where it consolidated in preparation for its next move. Breaking from
consolidation, EU reversed higher towards DP, breaking the previous high
at 135418 and pushing to 135639, forming an inverted pinbar. This followed with
a retracement back to 135170 (76%) and price closing the session slightly
higher at 135306.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking at charts, EU has engaged in a steady decline from
the commencement of the week until the discovery of support at 134639 on the 25th September.
This instigated a bullish reversal from the support level within the preceding
downtrend. Referring to the 4 hour chart, a breakout candle (low of 134660 and
high of 13494) can be seen, taking EU back to DP and then to a high of
135558 on a spurt of bullish momentum. When assessing this particular move on a
smaller time frame such as a one hour chart, the breakout candle forms the
first candle of a 3 candle bullish formation reaching a target of DR2 (135538)
but achieving a high of 135639 post the release of the Reuters/Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index which fell slightly short of the 78 forecasted figure
at 77.5. This then saw EU move higher piercing through MR2 and meeting with the
previous high of 135678 made on the 19th September.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although there was not much in the way of economic data to
inspire this move, it does align in timing with a speech delivered by Joaquín
Almunia (Vice President of the European Commission) in Washington DC on the 25th September.
This follows with an announcement of the decision to grant authority to the ECB
to supervise 6000 banks within 17 European countries on the 26th September in
line with the new Banking Union. The appointment will see the ECB take its role
as the supervisor in 2014 and forms part of a 3 stage process for the new
Banking Union introduced in June 2012, comprising of 3 components: 1) Single
Bank Supervisor 2) Single Resolution Authority 3) Single
Depository. This system will endevour to address and
improve the problems of the former European banking system in an effort
to achieve financial stability.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the ECB due to announce the next Interest Rate
decision, it is generally expected that rates will remain on hold at 0.5% while
the ECB continues to use the low rate to assist the short-term money
market rate. However, although this may the case for now, it does not rule out
the possibility for further cuts in the future. Much like all the recovering
economies, it is not practical to commit to such decisions without firmer
evidence of stability. Though the rise in the interbank rate (in
reference to the “interbank market”) has been largely due to the recent rise in
US yields combined with the output of positive economic data. As such a high
rate is not sustainable in current economic conditions and the ECB have
confirmed that although there are no targets for money market rates, the ECB
does have the “tools” to bring the rates down.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to my levels, a move higher from 135220 (DP)
will see 135426 (76%) tested for resistance. If this level breaks higher,
this will then see 135639 (previous day high) tested and breaking higher from
here will open the following targets: 135710, 136123 and 136634.
Alternatively, a break through 135220(DP) will see 134950 (23%) as
the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote
further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 134800, 134287
and 133874.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8p4-0nOb3ySk9Hfou-kqdF7dNLpu05Sf4RxD1H_L_0u-UiR4JbcJ04JJ0jvdZS2uDkZb-MiBzSGeQ-OreopKOxyjeGs9JK0yX3ntYclN8Q7sQIGgLmrViPRqGIwCwsCQH2YmZksi-M9k/s1600/audusdh1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8p4-0nOb3ySk9Hfou-kqdF7dNLpu05Sf4RxD1H_L_0u-UiR4JbcJ04JJ0jvdZS2uDkZb-MiBzSGeQ-OreopKOxyjeGs9JK0yX3ntYclN8Q7sQIGgLmrViPRqGIwCwsCQH2YmZksi-M9k/s320/audusdh1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
AU commenced the week lower than its NY close, opening the
Asia session at 93678 from its NY close 93912. However, only
managing to move a few pips lower to 93621, AU instead broke higher, pausing
around 93866 (76%) before breaking out in a prominent bullish candle (low of
93814 and high of 94372). Price maintained its momentum above 94 (94207) before
moving north, reaching a high of 94545, which upon approach met with rejection
sending price back in line with 94207 before making its move back to 93866
(76%). This saw price then make its way back towards 94, where it rejected upon
reaching 94189, declining to a low of 93731. However, unable to follow through,
price instead re-attempted a move back to 94, once again meeting with rejection
as sellers poised at this key level contained higher price movement. A second
rejection then prompted the move lower, which saw AU make another move south
reaching a low of 93379 (DS1). Finding support at this level, AU then
bounced back towards 93866 (76%) which acted as resistance, sending it back to
DP where it consolidated briefly before moving lower to 93466 (23%).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now supported at the 23%, AU made a bullish move back to 94,
reaching a high of 94008. Sellers then intervened once more pushing price
back to the 76% level, where it paused before breaking down back to DP
and through the 23% level, meeting back in line with the low made
on the 25th September with its current new low at 93379. Still unable break
through, AU moved back to DP, which then became new resistance as price
rejected accordingly producing a prominent bearish candle (high of 93744
and low of 93400). Upon its first test of this fall, AU found support taking
price back to DP. However, the retracement back to this pivot level, signaled
another sell with price breaking through the previous day low (93398) , finding
support at 93000. AU closed the NY session positioned at the lows with a final
price of 93113 (around DS2).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Supporting domestic data was fairly light for AUD, which
meant that it had very little support to hold itself up in regards to
positive figures or support from its correlation with other
financial markets. AUD has done very well most recently, reaching higher
corrective points between 94 -95 upon weakness in the USD. The 95 level was
always a key area to watch, that if price could sustain around this area, held
the possibility of promoting another boost towards the direction of parity
despite its own prevailing weakness. With the announcement of the next Interest
Rate decision due tomorrow, the position of the AUD will be closely
observed as many look to its position for any type of indication as to whether
the RBA may feel another cut is warranted. So far, the RBA still supports
a weaker currency and as mentioned last week, there is no certainty or
indication leaning towards a further cut while the RBA believes that all
factors contributing to meeting its economic objectives are still intact. While
the AUD remains weak, this effectively serves its purpose in fulfilling its
current role in adding stimulus to the domestic economy.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When looking at the 4 hour chart, it shows a continuation
from the top of 95281 formed on the 18th September after the FOMC announcement
representing an exaggerated bullish candle (low of 93612 and high of 95281)
that immediately sold off with the next 4 hour candle. Given that price
closed at a key support level, it is possible that we may see a retracement
high before resuming lower. In light of the pending outcome for the US Debt
Ceiling situation currently looming over financial markets, with its
threat to initiate a "government shutdown", AU will react accordingly
in the event that the markets turn in favour of risk. Though performance wise,
the AUD has started to slacken as key events draw closer and the charts show no
sign of a bottom as yet. Should the currency find the drive to head back south,
this will bring back 91 into view.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to my levels, a break above 93340 (DP)
will see AU test 93561 (76%). Moving north from this level will then see AU
extend its retracement, opening the following targets: 93760 , followed by
94410 and then 94800. Alternatively, a break through 93340 (DP)
will then see the next support level at 93152 (23%). A break through the
23% level will promote bearish momentum exposing the following levels:
92695, 92303 and 91654. </div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span> </div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW-Gbi0ES0lQN4MWU1EI0sQHoKP5QQ7Nqnu_Umb-f_4BaiV1ZkEHD93OsjD0tgM5wIM1TmpESmr3w-pk-InLnGs1VfbilBMuXEkZCZzuvo-vpmz8JEovXBJKACJtAGd3nlTpswhCXLkxU/s1600/usdjpyh1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW-Gbi0ES0lQN4MWU1EI0sQHoKP5QQ7Nqnu_Umb-f_4BaiV1ZkEHD93OsjD0tgM5wIM1TmpESmr3w-pk-InLnGs1VfbilBMuXEkZCZzuvo-vpmz8JEovXBJKACJtAGd3nlTpswhCXLkxU/s320/usdjpyh1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
UJ commenced the week, resuming within the price movement
from the last session. Opening at 99241, it was a steady decline to 98787
(DP), reaching a low of 98642 just above the 38% level, which upon holding
support, pushed UJ back to the 76% level where it found resistance. This then
saw UJ make another move lower to 98655, where it found support, creating a
double bottom. From here, UJ then reversed north, breaking 76% and reaching a
high of 99167. This followed shortly by a breakdown in the form of a bearish
marubozu (high of 99109 and low of 98768) that extended lower reaching
98501 and then 98467 , forming a bullish pinbar. From here, price moved higher
with another effort to break above 76% level, reaching a high of 98999. However
upon this second re-test, price steadily fell moving into the 25th September,
making a new low of 98378, which formed a row of pinbars around 98465
(23% level). This gave UJ a little push back to 98810, (around the DP level),
which immediately rejected, taking UJ back to the 23% level, forming a new low
at 98260. Upon approach to 98, buyers then intervened, reversing the direction
within two candles (low of 98372 to a high of 99104), meeting in line with the
top of 99167 made on the 23rd September.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Price maintained around the 76% level (wedged between DP and
76%), before breaking lower from 98980 through the 50% level (98694). This then
saw price make its way to the 23% level at 98500 where support was found, in
the form of a pinbar. This then boosted UJ back to resistance at the 76% level,
trying to break above 99, but price remained contained. Shortly after, a sell
back to DP, inspired one more attempt higher, however, this met with the same
outcome and resistance clearly in place just above 99. The reluctance of
buyers to push price above 99 instead saw UJ retreat from the highs declining
back to the lows, touching 98090 and closing NY at 98227.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There was very little support in seeing a rise in UJ last
week which was burdened with strength in the Yen and weakness in the USD. The
rise in Japan's CPI took the spotlight last week, which saw a rise from 0.7% to
0.9%, beating the forecasted 0.8%. The improvement clearly pointing positively
towards Japan's recovery strategy. However, although a positive, the
appreciation in the Yen also translates into higher export prices, acting as a
negative for the domestic economy, given its heavy reliance on exportation.
This follows earlier news of Japan considering to cut corporate
tax, leading to a rise in the Nikkei and the Yen during the Asia session. Since
then, a further comment was issued by Japan’s Finance Minister, stating that
they may no longer proceed with the cuts to corporate tax in light of the boost
it has given to the Yen. For UJ, the pair was given a double dose of weakness
upon strength in the Yen and aversion to the USD upon the current US debt
concerns as the Yen resumes its place as a safe haven currency against the USD.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This week sees a focus on the US and the outcome of the debt
ceiling issue that may prompt a government shutdown. We also have the NFP
figure due out on Friday (should the US till continue to be release data
figures this week). There is a possibility that we may see the majors against
the USD fall upon a positive NFP figure (which is the current forecast).
However, underneath the movement in the financial markets, sits the tension
between the US government parties which continues to build up while a
resolution or agreement has not been made, pointing to the possibility of
a government shutdown becoming a reality. However, this is not the first time
the US has faced this crisis, with the last event in 2011 resulting in a last
minute resolution. In the charts, this showed a small rise in the majors
against the USD just before the deadline and upon the resolution a drop of over
100 pips upon immediate strength to the USD. Whether this repeats the same
behavioural pattern remains to be seen. However, there is speculation that the
US stock markets will drop in response to the crisis within the new trading
week. Given the shift in correlation between the USD and the US stock market,
it is also likely that the USD will follow based upon recent trends. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Looking back at last year, the USD had an adverse correlation to the US stocks
which meant that sales in US equities were offset with purchasing the US
currency. It does appear that the USD is re-aligning back with risk and if this
is the case, then should the USD remain without the assistance of
domestic data and within the absence of a resolution to the debt ceiling
situation, it is more than likely to maintain its weak position. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Moving to the charts, it was a weak finish for UJ, ending
the NY session positioned under DS1 (98420). Looking at the 4 hour chart,
it does appear that there is still room for the pair to travel further south
with the last bottom of 96808 printed on the 28th August and more recently a
low of 97755 which found support, pushing the pair back above 99 to a high of
99662. However with price settled around a key support level, this may see a
price range or retrace a little higher first. When looking at UJ on the
daily chart, UJ is still nestled well within range with room to move in either
direction. Though the current bias for the pair does point in a bearish
direction for now, any retracement may see containment around the 99 level,
possibly around the previous day's high of 99128.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In regards to my levels, a break above 9903 will
promote bullish momentum level which will see the following targets come into
view: 999475, followed by 99885 and then the psychological 100000 level.
Alternatively, a break lower through 98465(DP) will expose the following
levels: 97400, 96790 and then 96454.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Want to keep up to date with our posts? We are now on
Twitter! <span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">Follow @GFXTRADER and receive updates throughout the week</span>. </div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<hr />
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-3256731951798629152013-09-29T22:08:00.001-07:002013-10-11T20:17:34.567-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 30th September 2013<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This may be another volatile week ahead, as we wait in anticipation upon the developments of the US Debt Ceiling crisis which has yet to find a resolution. As the deadline draws near, the current lack of progress will continue to air uncertainty as many keep cautious ahead of the outcome.<br />
<br />
<b>Possibilities:</b><br />
<br />
a) Should the US avoid a government shutdown, this may spark relief across the financial markets sending momentary strength to the USD<br />
<br />
b) The announcement of a partial government shutdown may send a message of internal instability to the financial markets (which is already the case) and see investors move away from US based assets including its domestic currency, as correlation between the US stock market and the USD re-align once again. <br />
<br />
c) If the debt ceiling is raised, this may provide a collective sigh of relief as the US will now be able to meet their payment deadlines resulting in momentary strength in favour of the USD, however it may also carry additional consequences given that the US will be now be carrying more debt on its shoulders. This includes the possibility of a future ratings downgrade if they are unable to maintain payments. This will once again see a sell off in the USD.<br />
<br />
Either way, the outcome and resolution to this crisis holds great potential for strong movement across the the FX majors. To see how the markets reacted to the last Debt Ceiling crisis, refer to August 2 2011 on to chart i.e. (UJ).<br />
<br />
Looking at the week ahead, it will be busy in the next few days with the central banks announcing their Interest Rate decisions and the US NFP figure due out on Friday. A few opportunities this week to capture a few pips.<br />
<br />
Goodluck!<br />
<br />
<hr />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHa6zDvCRuzKBT_OGURkr5B_9AQa__yBxR0bu1yTw6jbLcCv8FrHoStiRI42isR0PnyUDTgajRBX14_7LCjOn10QRLs3rbUV567eHhyphenhyphenR8XKPwYEdxUbmeI5UVocVrfoyf0BlFt7XfE5rg/s1600/GU+1+hour+TS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHa6zDvCRuzKBT_OGURkr5B_9AQa__yBxR0bu1yTw6jbLcCv8FrHoStiRI42isR0PnyUDTgajRBX14_7LCjOn10QRLs3rbUV567eHhyphenhyphenR8XKPwYEdxUbmeI5UVocVrfoyf0BlFt7XfE5rg/s320/GU+1+hour+TS.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
GU started the week fairly optimistic until the release of weaker GDP figures, which led to a sell off from the top to a low of 159989. However, this move quickly reversed upon a news headline quoting Mark Carney as saying that he did not think there would be a need for further easing. Having retraced from the highs back to the lows upon the GDP figure, the news bolstered the pair back above 161, reaching a new high of 161454, closing NY in positive territory.</div>
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<span style="text-align: justify;">In regards to what to expect this week,there is a possibility that we may see a retracement from the highs should domestic data disappoint and break the positive streak, or if the USD find strength upon risk aversion or developments in the US. There is not much movement in Asia as buyers remain a little weary. I have noted 161454 as the level to watch,but wait for a pullback and the reaction to this pullback before considering entry. </span><br />
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;"><br />
</span> <br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>161454<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 161454(break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 161100(break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
161454 represents a key level that will act as either support or continuation for a bearish reversal.<br />
<br />
<b>What to look for:</b><br />
<br />
Look for a retracement back to this level. A break below will see lower targets come into play while support at this level will see the bullish run continue higher A break clean break above 161454 after a pullback will see GU reach for higher targets while supported at a higher price level.having found higher support.<br />
<br />
A break above 161454 will then see 161904 come into view, followed by 162394 and then 163346. Even with current moment in favour of risk, there will be sellers at the higher key levels looking for opportunities to short GU back towards 160.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a bearish scenario will need to see a break lower through 161100 (76%) followed by a break through 1160925 (DP) and then 160567(23%). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
Breaking through the 23% level, will expose: the following targets: 160407, 159456 and then 159000.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 161904, T2: 162394, T3: 163346<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 160407, T2: 159456, T3: 159000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Mortgage Approvals (30 Sept), PMI (Oct 1), PMI Construction (Oct 2)</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentcolor;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvXej2hGhEM8poh0pOdSUbPxDC036GZKVQlaryWps-kW-uVSZhYEmS2Y15Ks6oGpGvvsAeY4YdberbZx4_5iAaK1fEJ5XVi4-6CIB82wK3pz3ozmagco_KjN6LpNE1_ZbEqkDazAPl7H8/s1600/EU+1+hour+TS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvXej2hGhEM8poh0pOdSUbPxDC036GZKVQlaryWps-kW-uVSZhYEmS2Y15Ks6oGpGvvsAeY4YdberbZx4_5iAaK1fEJ5XVi4-6CIB82wK3pz3ozmagco_KjN6LpNE1_ZbEqkDazAPl7H8/s320/EU+1+hour+TS.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Price movement for EU was rather uneventful as it stayed locked within the constraints of its upper and lower parameters. Much of the move north can be credited to uncertainty within the US which gave an additional boost to all of its counterparts as well in combination with a speech delivered in Washington DC by the VP of the European Commission, who discussed the developments of the new Euro Banking Union.<br />
<br />
Unlike the Pound who remained resilient at the top moving into the new trading week, EU opened the Asia session lower and has so far produced very small movement in either direction. Currently price sits at 135 (23%) which holds great potential as a support level. However a break lower will instigate further selling towards the targets noted below.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>135220<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 135500 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 135000 (break below)</b><br />
<br />
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Watching 135220 (DP), a move higher from this level will see 135426 (76%) tested for resistance. If this level breaks higher, enter on a clear break above 135550. This will will then see 135639 (previous day high) tested and breaking higher from here will open the following targets: 135710, 136123 and 136634.<br />
<br />
<span style="text-align: justify;">Alternatively, a break through 135220(DP) will see 134950 (23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 134800, 134287 and 133874.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br />
<br />
<b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 135710, T2: 136123, T3: 136634<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 134800, T2: 134287, T3: 133874<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
CPI, Retail Sales, GER PMI, GER Unemployment Change, GER Unemployment Rate (30 Sept), ITA Unemployment (Oct 1), ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct 2), PMI, Retail Sales (Oct 3)</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp-DIthvxWF0afUl-oanNYPFTikFwzphh_wYK79oWpKTqOsYCHyrYSuKG_0C3_lXThNzNDCuZySDuy3xBCxQWHMVu8mgvAfpd0AGpVS-aASYMr5yAqIfil7AkFSw4-_NtTLG_UZWi9rds/s1600/AU+1+hour+TS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjp-DIthvxWF0afUl-oanNYPFTikFwzphh_wYK79oWpKTqOsYCHyrYSuKG_0C3_lXThNzNDCuZySDuy3xBCxQWHMVu8mgvAfpd0AGpVS-aASYMr5yAqIfil7AkFSw4-_NtTLG_UZWi9rds/s320/AU+1+hour+TS.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">AU commenced
the week lower than its NY close, opening the Asia session at 93678 from its NY close 93912. So far we are seeing AU continue its move away from the high of 95281 made after the FOMC announcement last week. With price now back at the 93 level, a break lower will promote a continuation of the major bearish trend with 91, and 90 in further view. However with the RBA due to announce the Interest Rate decision tomorrow, we may see this completely turn around, should no change be made to the cash rate. A hold of the current cash rate will mean the the recovery is still progressing and that the current standing of the domestic currency has not interfered with its role in "re-balancing" the economy. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">If the rates do reflect no change and the market takes this favourably, we may see AU move north targeting previous key levels as retracement tops. With improvements in the global economy now starting to take form, the RBA may feel less inclined to be protective about the domestic economy, especially if combined with steady progress within its own domestic recovery. </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">If this is the case, then AU will find support around current levels in preparation for another move north. However, any retracement higher should still be viewed as "corrective" until further confirmation both technically and fundamentally are in place. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>93340<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 933600 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL:93152 (break below)</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
A break above 93340 (DP) will see AU test 93561 (76%). Moving north from this level will then see AU extend its retracement, opening the following targets: 93760 , followed by 94410 and then 94800. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Alternatively, a break through 93340 (DP) will then see the next support level sitting at 93152 (23%). A break through the 23% level will promote bearish momentum exposing the following levels: 92695, 92303 and 91654. <o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 93760, T2: 94410 , T3: 94800<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 92695, T2: 92303, T3: 91654<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
TD Securities Inflation, AIG Performance (Sept 30), Retail Sales, RBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Rate Statement (Oct 1) New Home Sales, Building Permits, Trade Balance, AIG Performance of Services Index (Oct 2)</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4SRAH4a8LRm4ox1HxBwLf1iWcvQpbY-dOWuP9-sohdAmC2TlMuZomWtG_7qdc8RatBXOAq-sB71W0FnXaji6riV8GaHbY-K7reUXSfjJykBB1qhGbJN-7sxbvLC0QhAQ3UA-qcz6j7wM/s1600/UJ+1+hour+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4SRAH4a8LRm4ox1HxBwLf1iWcvQpbY-dOWuP9-sohdAmC2TlMuZomWtG_7qdc8RatBXOAq-sB71W0FnXaji6riV8GaHbY-K7reUXSfjJykBB1qhGbJN-7sxbvLC0QhAQ3UA-qcz6j7wM/s320/UJ+1+hour+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
It has not been a good start for UJ, who commenced this new week opening lower from its NY close. Currently positioned at DS1, UJ holds a bearish bias based upon the current uncertainty in the US. With the non farm payroll figure due at the end of the week, this may be the catalyst to boost USD on the back of positive domestic data. However, a boost a may also come earlier in the form of supporting developments with the debt ceiling crisis.<br />
<br />
98465 (DP) stands as the level to watch for direction.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>98465</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 99003 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 97600 (break below) or upon a retracement back to 98465(breaking DP)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 9903 will promote bullish momentum level which will see the following targets come into view: 999475, followed by 99885 and then the psychological 10000 level.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a break lower through 98465(DP) will expose the following levels: 97400, 96790 and 96454.<br />
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 99475, T2: 99885, T3: 100000<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 97400, T2: 96790, T3: 96454<o:p></o:p></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt;"><td style="border: 1pt solid black; height: 2.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: black; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-right-color: black; border-right-width: 1pt; border-style: none solid solid none; height: 2.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Sept 30)JPY Household Spending, JPY Unemployment Rate (Sept 30), PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Prices Paid (Oct 1), Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, ISM NY Index, JPY Foreign Investment, JPY Folreign Investment in Stocks (Oct 2), FED Speech, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 3), NFP, Average Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Unemployment Rate (Oct 4)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></span></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></span></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;"> Want to keep up to date with our posts? We are now on Twitter. Follow</span> <span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">@</span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">GFXTRADER</span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"> </span><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;">and receive updates throughout the week.</span></span></h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">* Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email l</span><a href="mailto:liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">iveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-size: xx-small;">..</span></span></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-61774228450078263132013-09-23T04:37:00.002-07:002013-10-09T06:46:11.332-07:00Market Analysis: WC 23 Sept 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Last week saw the majors rise sharply against the USD upon the US Fed surprising the markets with their decision to hold tapering in favour stronger economic data figures to support economic growth. The announcement saw US stocks rise with the S&P reaching new highs, whilst in the commodities markets, Gold prices also rose in response. Turning to the FX markets, majors against the USD surged between 100 - 250 pips post announcement, closing the week at the highs. Upon improvements in the Euro zone, the Euro along with yields saw higher levels, while the dollar index (DXY) rose 0.1%, finding support after economic data released post the FOMC announcement. This week sees a few important data figures among the release of figures over the coming days. This includes: CPI (Euro), GDP (Pound and Ye)n and Consumer Confidence (US). ECB President Mario Draghi is also scheduled to deliver a couple of speeches this week as well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GPBUSD</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid7g348px1GzKXitMRZ117yhb8QC5YRswZdefnK4Yx9K0fZfH7gvJXrxNB0K89HZH7e2Oyixw22b1b6SqtJLD5n82Yphzb2T65LjbcpamNmxrSODhov8EeAzndSyBCu43Sq8RnjknI888/s1600/gbpusdh1+20+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid7g348px1GzKXitMRZ117yhb8QC5YRswZdefnK4Yx9K0fZfH7gvJXrxNB0K89HZH7e2Oyixw22b1b6SqtJLD5n82Yphzb2T65LjbcpamNmxrSODhov8EeAzndSyBCu43Sq8RnjknI888/s320/gbpusdh1+20+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcq78SnT33yhwMWr3G37x5txa6J4g5ZBXpZ9-XHwalvK_yTEbIhLzW0uok6JsIOlVPboIePQSsnFbj1zTgQ8MZ9gXDlmMxxNOWsZtusWfk42wNxVWkxxaSxS0jZcjqqAJTO0j3Ss88m4/s1600/gbpusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">GU commenced the week with determination, opening at 15933, over 100 pips high than the last NY close. However, it was a slow start, as indecision set in over the course of the next few days with GU trapped in a tight consolidation between 159640 and 159175, resuming lower towards 158861 (capped by 159175) on the 17<sup>th</sup> September. It was not until mid week that GU finally broke out, pushing higher to 159628, providing a signal that the market had now decided on a direction. From here, price continued to range at current levels in preparation for its next move which led to a prominent bullish marubozu (low of 159755 and high of 161120). The ascension continued higher within the next two candles, reaching a high of 161622 (76%) before meeting with resistance. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Now having broken through 160 and surging straight to 161, GU continued to maintain its position at the highs moving into the 19<sup>th</sup> September, before sellers stepped in upon profit taking. This saw GU move back to 160768 and proceed to range around current levels (38%), before descending a little lower to 160218, moving with indecision between a tight range (160162 and 160194). The 20<sup>th</sup> September saw a small attempt north, reaching 160663, but this was immediately met with rejection as sellers pushed price back to 160372 and then further to a low of 159858 just above DS1). This held as support taking price back just over 160 where price stayed until the end of the NY session, closing at 160013.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The surge in the Pound can been largely contributed not only to the FOMC announcement but to the tone of the Monetary Policy Minutes released on Tuesday which indicated that recent economic data pointed to an improvement in the UK economy and the data figures being described as "consistently stronger than market expectations". As such, forecasts were revised to 0.7% higher from 0.5% (August), based upon the latest economic data, which also saw a move in government bonds above 3%. As a result, the positive turn in the outlook for the British economy prompted the BOE to present a less dovish tone and led to the decision last week to keep asset purchases unchanged at GBP375bn for the meantime with no change to the current interest rate of 0.5%. This was in view of the three "knockout" conditions: Inflation to be contained by 2.5% within the next 24 month period, observation to continue over the indicators tied to inflation expectations and the assessment of monetary policy and its relationship to financial stability. Other data figures released earlier in the week include: Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) which remained unchanged at 2.0% (under the forecast of 2.1%), CPI YoY (Aug) which met the forecast at 2.7%, but was still slightly lower than the previous figure 2.8%, and PPI Core Output (Aug) which came in under par at 1.0% vs. 1.1%. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Taking a look at the 4 hour chart, we can see the start of GU confirming its bullish move on the 3rd September once breaking above 155991. This placed the next target at 157200 which when demonstrating its inability to hold as resistance, saw price move further north, continuing its ascension higher until reaching 158841. This then met with hesitation upon the approach of the 159 level. In the following week, the bullish trend continued, with GU opening higher with hesitation leading up to the FOMC announcement due on Wednesday the 18th September. As can be seen towards the close of the last NY session, once reaching the high of 161500, GU proceeded to fade back to 160031.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With price currently suspended above 160, this holds favourably towards the possibility for another attempt higher upon breaking above 160460. Although recent price action has seen GU retrace and cover much of the bullish breakout from 159646 as price currently sits under DP. However as GU starts to makes its way back to the upside, confirmation of a bullish continuation will be seen upon both a break above 160473 and 160663, with price supported above these levels. Should this be the case, the following levels will then come into view: 161033 (DR1), 162073 (DR2) and 162710 (DR3). However should price fall below 160460 (DP), 160048 (23%) will be the next level tested as support. A break through this level will expose the following targets: 159381 (DS1), 158798 (DS2) and finally 157780 (DS3).</span><span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 9.2pt; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPz4zCckpiZjlGpEjj36EPReXl6bl1NCkH6r8Bii_HNA2OSht3MwDc8KVvHUbDlE3gVfs_pKcGfegoquMBKq80swVTiYqyuCQwnMnbhCyIUsf7mpFEOo17TahfR5jfeslQ4ysZBviG3Gw/s1600/eurusdh1+20+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPz4zCckpiZjlGpEjj36EPReXl6bl1NCkH6r8Bii_HNA2OSht3MwDc8KVvHUbDlE3gVfs_pKcGfegoquMBKq80swVTiYqyuCQwnMnbhCyIUsf7mpFEOo17TahfR5jfeslQ4ysZBviG3Gw/s320/eurusdh1+20+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">EU opened the week at 133594, over 60 pips higher from the last NY close (132180). Following in the same manner as the Pound, it was very uneventful leading up to the 18<sup>th</sup> September, when the US Fed were due to make their announcements. While uncertainty remained, EU remained locked in a tight consolidation between 1333428 -133841, moving lower to a bottom of 133257, which kept price contained within a tight range. Upon finding support, EU then re-aligned back with the 133400 range, still maintaining an extremely restricted range of just over 20 pips (top of 133656). It was not until the 18<sup>th </sup>Sept, following the US Fed announcement, that we saw EU break with a surge of power, reacting strongly to the US Fed announcement that tapering would not commence in September as anticipated. It was an impressive move of over 140 pips upon a weaker USD, printing a prominent bullish marubozu (low of 13366 and high of 135096). This took EU to new highs that saw price maintain its bullish disposition locked at the top in a range (between 135114 – 135650) until the end of the week, closing the NY session at 135165 (23%).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span class="focusparagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As per the economic calendar, ECB President, Mario Draghi delivered a speech on the 16th September, which as expected, provided the ECB's assessment of the Euro zone's current economic condition. In this speech, Mario Draghi confirmed what much of the market already knew, which is that the euro<span style="color: red;"> </span>zone’s economy was still in the early stages of its recovery. As such, in line with the other advanced countries also focused on their recovery, economic data will continue to play a key role in demonstrating improvements in economic growth, while assisting with determining the suitable timing to adjust monetary policy. However, the ECB like the US Fed, still require further evidence of improvement and as such, the ECB continue to hold the view that the euro zone economy as whole is still considered “fragile”. Therefore, economic indicators such as unemployment still need to show significant progress especially in light of inflation expectations which are expected to deliver a moderate performance in the near future. Even as the euro zone start to show improvements in data, the recovery is still considered progressive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span class="focusparagraph" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Currently the ECB have no immediate or short-term view to adjust interest rates despite the positive reflection in recent data indicating a transition away from the bottom. This also ties in with Draghi’s commitment to keep borrowing costs low. Therefore, while no significant action is on the horizon regarding adjustments to monetary policy, the positive is, that is there is a focus on the people and the economy has moved away from the "flashing red lights" once signalling warning bells for the potential break up of the Euro. They are now able to temper the likelihood of another major event, involving another scenario of bailouts and intervention from the IMF as seen in 2012. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="focusparagraph">However, looking at economic data, this week saw inflation reducing from 1.6% to 1.3% meeting expectations in August, while GDP figures were positive at 0.3% from -0.2% (1st quarter). This GDP figure represents the first sign of improvement after a succession of contracting quarters seen earlier in the year. However, with inflation still below the 2% target, this indicator still remains closely on watch. Looking more broadly at the macro picture, optimism has been very much influenced by the expansion in the euro zone economy recorded in June, which saw small improvements in pockets of economic data, supported by the unemployment rate, that despite difficulties in the economy, has still managed to stay consistent over </span><span class="focusparagraph">the last few months. In regards to other data figures, this includes: labour costs which were up 0.9% from 1.7%, along with the ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sept) reflecting an improvement at from 47.2 to 58.6. Currently in the spotlight are the German elections which have Angela Merkel, the current German Chancellor, tipped to be appointed into a third term in office. Germany goes to polls today (Sunday).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When looking at EU on the larger times, we can see EU now positioned near the high of 137104 made on the 1st Feb, which to date has held as top resistance that has led to a steady decline down to 128 in April this year. The 128 level still holds as main support, keeping EU range bound on the higher times frames with room to move to the topside, as the 136 area comes into view (DR3). Unless prompted by a major catalyst, 137 still holds as top resistance with this level possibly targeted as for re-testing, should EU push through 136. Given the bullish momentum surrounding the Euro, it is very possible that any positive release in data may trigger the completion of this move. However, while at the top end of the price range, I would be looking closely at economic events and movements not only in the FX markets but the other financial markets, as this may also possibly inspire a move in the Euro. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While there is positives in data, a lot of uncertainty still holds not economically, but also politically and socially. So while this is being ignored, any major movement in these areas may also trigger a move in the Euro. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As the ECB president has confirmed and as we know, the euro zone is still dealing with a lot of internal issues within some of their European countries (see last week's report). Combine this with the situation in Syria and movements in the US, a trigger for top resistance can be found in many sources. Therefore, any type of rejection from these high levels, may bring EU back to 132-133 rather quickly. It will be a nice break but still well within range. With price consolidating at the highs, a breakout is imminent and once direction is confirmed, a follow through to the next key levels will most likely occur with price seeking refuge in preparation for its next move.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In regards to levels, a break above 135363 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test 135483 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view: 135980 (DR2), 136247 (DR3) and then 136642 as the next target. Alternatively, a break through 135270 (DP) will see 135095 (23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 134821(DS1), 134546 (DS2) and finally 134160 (DS3). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_AFU25HJ-goE2mAq7dcOVCcoSxk4CYFO_E0PLqMOEkiqctrIrbDNJRXB0gUK26RkXGJgitc2oxSbJo26-QGKNvU17zm69SanzUOHJwZiv0ffrgER-BUKxPAJID4Yku-7ex9zN6vT4clw/s1600/audusdh1+20+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_AFU25HJ-goE2mAq7dcOVCcoSxk4CYFO_E0PLqMOEkiqctrIrbDNJRXB0gUK26RkXGJgitc2oxSbJo26-QGKNvU17zm69SanzUOHJwZiv0ffrgER-BUKxPAJID4Yku-7ex9zN6vT4clw/s320/audusdh1+20+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Like the other majors against the USD, AU started the week in positive form, opening at 93277, just over 70 pips higher than NY’s close at 92413. AU started the Asia session maintaining at current levels, moving slightly higher and reaching 93865, before hesitation towards 94 saw price pullback as sellers stepped in, pushing AU down to a low of 93166, with consistent selling over the next 4 hours. From here, price then settled around 94370 before drifting towards 94496 (23%) moving into the last day of trading. With price now sitting at the 23% level, the 20<sup>th</sup> Sept saw price break this level from 94530 to 94225, placing DS1 (9398) as the next target as AU created a low of 93770. Price quickly moved back over 94 and proceeded north with the next 3 candles, reaching 94311, which rejected sending price back down to 93763, closing the NY session at just under 94 at 93912. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">According to the RBA meting notes released on the 17<sup>th</sup> September, exports have been the main support for the domestic economy with Iron-ore demand growing in the June quarter along with coal. As such, higher commodity prices have played a part in assisting the resource sector most recently. In other areas, retail sales and household consumption, reflected a mediocre performance, suggesting a level of conservative spending in the domestic economy in response to current economic conditions. On a positive note, the effects of low interests have had a stimulating effect on the housing sector as expected, along with building approvals showing an improvement in July. Shifting to employment, it has been noted that more recent figures have not reflected a significant improvement in relation to an expansion in population, which also saw a rise in the unemployment rate (last figure 5.8%). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma;">In regards to GDP, figures have shown this to be performing below trend with expectations and this is to continue coming into the next few months. Alongside this is the expectation that mining investment will also start to decline over the next few years due to the completion of current projects. However, exportation is still seen to maintain its growth pace into the future. This is not the case with non-mining industries which fall secondary to the resource sector and are foreseen to continue with their struggle in current economic conditions. With the RBA indicating that there are no definitive plans to further cut rates in the near future, it does suggest that October is leaning more to an unchanged rate, stumping earlier speculation of further cuts in the next round of cash rate announcements. Therefore, this view will be now be re-assessed for November.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Though this will of course be dependent on the position of the domestic currency, which as mentioned previously, continues to play its role in “re-balancing” the domestic economy. Therefore, a further depreciation is still very much welcomed by the RBA while it continues to assist with providing stimulus to the economy. On the other hand, an appreciation of the AUD, or – the AUD maintaining its position at the higher spectrum of its range, may see the RBA take more consideration towards once again adjusting interest rates, should the AUD move away from providing the positive effects derived from a depreciating dollar. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">With </span>AU currently sitting at the 23% level, a move from this position will determine the immediate direction. A break above 94273 will instigate a bullish attempt with the first test level at 94386.If AU manages to break 94386, this may signal a potential long trade while price is able to maintain above board. Moving north from this level will then place the following targets into view: 94824(DR1) followed by 95752 (DR2) and then 96299 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will bring forward 96450 as the next target.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Alternatively, a break through 94300 (DP) will then see the next support level sitting at 93955 (23%). A break through the 23% level will promote bearish momentum exposing the following levels: 93370 (DS1), 92811 (DS2) and 91865 (DS3). In the absence of any major domestic catalysts, keep on the look out for movement in the USD, CNY and commodities market. Also any sudden developments in the Syria crisis may also prompt a move should risk aversion set in amid concerns and fears over possible outcomes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span> </div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrK7bJBJiT_5Hd9ZtsWY4jGW9rnK2ijliH2f_psrY4e4UoJ6e-u8DW_bXR6LkszDz0eUpsyCqHtLORJtAO2O4bC5DX_tjyeLveBwZ_SMOKUqlGMCNyMDJgnM7Xt__68Au5sk_-EEHmE88/s1600/usdjpyh1+20+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrK7bJBJiT_5Hd9ZtsWY4jGW9rnK2ijliH2f_psrY4e4UoJ6e-u8DW_bXR6LkszDz0eUpsyCqHtLORJtAO2O4bC5DX_tjyeLveBwZ_SMOKUqlGMCNyMDJgnM7Xt__68Au5sk_-EEHmE88/s320/usdjpyh1+20+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Taking the opposite side of its counterparts, UJ opened the Asia session lower at 98689 from its previous NY close 99354. Movement remained steady between a range of 98653 – 99129, before moving back north on the 17<sup>th</sup> Sept, aligning with last week’s close. UJ continued to consolidate in a tight range between 99129 – 99337 until the FOMC announcement due at the beginning of the NY session on the 18<sup>th</sup> Sept. Following the Fed announcement, UJ immediately dropped over 90 pips in response and then further to a low of 97755, where it found support. From here, UJ then reversed sharply back north to 99210 (76%), settling back around 99375. UJ continued to range at current levels moving into the last day of trading, which saw very little movement as price remained suspended at the highs, retracing back to the 76% level (99210), closing the NY session at 99217.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As mentioned previously, Japan sits in a very unique position to the rest of the world as an economy heavily reliant on exportation to sustain their economy. It has most certainly been a road to recovery for Japan who have spent much time addressing the issue of “deflation” over the last 15 years while most recently working towards achieving their 2% target announced earlier in the year. According to the latest speech given by the BOJ Governor Kuroda, Japan is progressing “smoothly” towards their objective and is recovering “moderately”. GDP figures for April-June have reflected growth, while machine orders (which for Japan is a leading indicator for business fixed investment) also saw an improvement emerging from a stagnation over the last 5 quarters. Other indicators such as an increase in consumer confidence has also been supported by improvements in wages and employment. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The BOJ have emphasized that they will continue with QQE as long as necessarily in line with focusing on their 2% target and managing their long term issues with deflation. Last week saw another round of positive economic data emerge from Japan with the Merchandise Trade Balance coming in at ¥960.3B vs. ¥1,100.8, the All Industry Activity Index showing an improvement at 0.5% vs. 0.4% and the Leading Economic Index which was higher at 107.9 vs. 107.3.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The US Fed provided the event of the week with all eyes on Bernanke and the announcement that had been the focus of the month as market participants awaited the news that the US would commence tapering their stimulus in September. It was a heavily anticipated event, that saw the majors engaged in a tight consolidation leading up the hour of the announcement. Given the constraint of the range, there was no doubt that a major breakout was imminent. The only twist being that the outcome was largely in favour of a swing towards the USD upon expectations that the US Fed would commence tapering in September, which they announced is not the plan. Apart from this, there are now other concerns circulating around the US economy over the federal budget, borrowing limits and fiscal consolidation. Also, October marks the month that the treasury is expected to its exhaust borrowing capability upon reaching its statuary debt limit. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With the view on tapering, this is certainly not off the table, but will be re-assessed in line with further signs of economic growth before the Fed look to adjust stimulus. With the major economies in recovery mode, there is a reluctance to make any bold or predictive moves without the support of stronger economic data to inspire the appropriate timing to take action. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moving to the charts and starting with the Daily, we are seeing UJ start to slow its pace from its steep bullish climb from September 2012. Looking at July, there is a potential head and shoulders pattern formed upon UJ moving back to the 94 level, however, this was quickly rejected, resulting in a continuation of the range instead. So far the 100 level still holds a strong psychological level that will continue to attract short attempts upon approach. However, once broken to the topside, UJ will look towards 101 and 102 once again. Upon strong bullish momentum, the 103 area still holds as a top re-testing area that may or may not instigate a major rally upon it reach. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Still on the higher time frames, breaking above 103675, will see UJ promote a continuation of its bullish run whilst rejection around this area, will see UJ retreat accordingly with a lot of room south for UJ to travel down, while staying within the confinement of its range. The 94 level will need to be broken in order to accelerate a bearish move, while movement above 103 will place UJ in view of higher targets. As such, this may hold as a possible scenario, should the USD find strength. In regards to the Yen, there will be very little opposition from the Yen who favour a lower currency in order to support their export market. If anything, it is normally in the case of Yen appreciation that has seen the BOJ intervened.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In regards to levels, I am looking at 99545 as a level to promote a bullish move while a break to 98915 will see UJ attempt support lower. Breaking above 99545, will first test 99662(previous day's high) and moving north from this level will place the following levels into view: 99940 (DR1) followed by 100687 (DR2) and then 100785(MR2). Breaking higher from MR2 will then bring 101758 (DR3) into view. Alternatively, a break through 98915 (DP) will expose the following levels: 98106 (DS1), then 97120 (DS2) and finally 96355 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="background-color: #ffe599;">Want to keep up to date with our posts? We are now on Twitter! Follow </span><b style="background-color: #ffe599;">@GFXTRADER </b><span style="background-color: #ffe599;">and be the first to know :)</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<hr />
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-76955588970142672522013-09-22T19:57:00.000-07:002013-10-11T20:18:03.141-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 23 Sept 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
It was a slow start as the majors moved cautiously throughout the week leading up to the event that would announce whether the US Fed would begin tapering stimulus this month. The event was highly anticipated to validate expectations supporting some sort of action towards tapering. However, the outcome resulted in the US Fed announcing that tapering would be left on hold in view of the need for stronger evidence of economic growth. This surprised the markets who were expecting a different outcome and in response saw the majors against USD break topside from consolidation, surging north upon immediate weakening of the USD. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-5DsbJrjAzKB_Lb7Iq_GzHkxOPKDau_FTo4cpoAudqgKJDeCDZUvrRt3VYSWzteqBf1i0Bmn5p-MyNz9WUtEW-jAYtj3DvaANe25lnbjgRvzhOH6SjFixkSZopFFylphotlI6H5v6OzU/s1600/GU+4+hour+20+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-5DsbJrjAzKB_Lb7Iq_GzHkxOPKDau_FTo4cpoAudqgKJDeCDZUvrRt3VYSWzteqBf1i0Bmn5p-MyNz9WUtEW-jAYtj3DvaANe25lnbjgRvzhOH6SjFixkSZopFFylphotlI6H5v6OzU/s320/GU+4+hour+20+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<span style="text-align: justify;">GU has spent the last few weeks gathered strong bullish momentum on the back of consistent positive economic figures supporting signs of recovery. Unfortunately last week failed to follow suit, with CPI, PPI and retail figures coming in under par with expectations. However, the the positive tone in the Monetary Policy Minutes, combined with the FOMC event released later in the week, took the spotlight, bringing the bulls back to the table. This saw GU make a small move higher upon domestic data followed by a more significant advancement above 161 in just one candle following the FOMC announcement. Currently during this new Asia session, GU is positioned at 160080 (23% level).</span><br />
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;"><br />
</span> <br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>160460<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 160670 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 160300(break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 160460 will promote further bullish momentum with the first test sitting at 160473 (76%). A break above this level will then see 160663 (previous day high) as the next resistance level. Should price maintain its momentum above 160663, moving north from this level will then bring the following levels into view: 161455(WR1), 161033(DR1), 162073 (DR2) and 162710(DR3).<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a bearish scenario will need to see a break lower through 160460 (DP) followed by a break through 160048 (23%) which is also a level that may hold as support. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
Breaking through the 23% level, will expose: the following targets: 159381(DS1), 158798 (DS2) and finally 157780 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 161033, T2: 162073, T3: 162710<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 159381, T2: 158798, T3: 157780<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
CBI Trades Survey (Sept 25),Housing Prices, GDP (Q2),Gfk Consumer Confidence (Sept 26)</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj6WD6LOJb7qbKzqJ2gcExQ3tQ8-uia5kFtViHme6QQi1jOpi1IKjOhZuRDTdGigq9R1Q5D61nIiEcu5y9L6iiGoekhCnVD3gMt6dgir4hyW1mRtX51KY5jnu-brEVCEreGnvMcP8jsUM/s1600/EU+4+hour+20+Sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj6WD6LOJb7qbKzqJ2gcExQ3tQ8-uia5kFtViHme6QQi1jOpi1IKjOhZuRDTdGigq9R1Q5D61nIiEcu5y9L6iiGoekhCnVD3gMt6dgir4hyW1mRtX51KY5jnu-brEVCEreGnvMcP8jsUM/s320/EU+4+hour+20+Sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Similar to Pound, EU remained locked in a tight consolidation leading up to the FOMC announcement. The immediate weakness in the USD following the FOMC announcement,saw EU break out topside over 140 in one candle in response to the outcome which surprised the markets. From here,price remained at the highs until the close of the NY session.<br />
<br />
Still maintaining it bullish edge, EU has not yet faltered and this week sees EU commencing the Asia session still locked within the consolidation formed on the 19th September. However with the levels adjusted for the new week, GU is still locked in consolidation, sitting at DP. This does suggest momentary hesitation in regards to direction. So far, there has not been any signs of weakness or rejection, moving into the new week, therefore, it is very possible that what we are looking at is a continuation north with resistance waiting at the higher key levels.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>135363<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 135500 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 135270 (break below)</b><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
A break above 135363 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test 135483 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view: 135980 (DR2), 136247 (DR3) and then 136642 as the next target. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Alternatively, a break through 135270 (DP) will see 135095 (23%) as the next support level. A confirmed break through the 23% level, will promote further bearish momentum and expose the following levels: 134821(DS1), 134546 (DS2) and finally 134160 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 135980, T2: 136642 T3: 136642<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 134821, T2: 134546 T3: 134160<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:</b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
ECB President Speech, CPI - Core, IFO (Sept 24), Gfk Consumer Confidence (Sept 25), ECB Speech, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, CPI (Sept 27)</div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm2n4el_U0XkqeZfet-FuFZa8dFgu289LdFA13htnnmmxuXZZquSw5u-paW255GA6RVLNj5Qrx2iQ8KUgeVvhxvriH2KSEUMHVcCB1D-9kHoWNRVPQuQN96s0X3p-dyIumNCWyL6lc_xU/s1600/AU+4+hour+20+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm2n4el_U0XkqeZfet-FuFZa8dFgu289LdFA13htnnmmxuXZZquSw5u-paW255GA6RVLNj5Qrx2iQ8KUgeVvhxvriH2KSEUMHVcCB1D-9kHoWNRVPQuQN96s0X3p-dyIumNCWyL6lc_xU/s320/AU+4+hour+20+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
Like the other majors against the USD, it was a positive start for AU, who opened over 70 pips higher than its last NY close. The week saw AU touch a bottom of 92847, while surge above 95 to a high of 95281 upon USD weakness post the FOMC announcement, closing the NY session under 94. As we begin the new week, AU lacks the exuberance to charge forward, as the Asia session starts with a sombre tone. Currently drifting higher from an open near the previous day's low (93763), AU currently sits at the 23% level, waiting patiently yet lacking the motivation to make a move. Though this week is light with data supporting the AUD, it is most likely, as has been the case previously, that AUD will take its lead from other sources in the absence of its own domestic backing. Look to movement in the USD and potential movement in the commodities market.</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>94273<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 94400 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL:94200 (break below)</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
A break above 94273 will instigate a bullish attempt with the first test level at 94386.If AU manages to break 94386, this may signal a potential long trade while price is able to maintain above board. Moving north from this level will then place the following targets into view: 94824(DR1) followed by 95752 (DR2) and then 96299 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will bring forward 96450 as the next target.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Alternatively, a break through 94300 (DP) will then see the next support level sitting at 93955 (23%). A break through the 23% level will promote bearish momentum exposing the following levels: 93370 (DS1), 92811 (DS2) and 91865 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 94824, T2: 95752 , T3: 96299<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 93370, T2: 92811, T3: 91865<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
RBA Annual Report (Sept 24), Financial Stability Review (Sept 25)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR-JFELqmUASasuMx-s7F3u6njr1BB6rAFCuBYtZ609lc89-WXyUg5wH2dlCDZhB-rRmmOgvwKnDeLqmoTgUMbaa32xNRC23IW-gH-Y1y3myBbCh3whjP2VABQqpQgh5q5IEW_wEs3CLE/s1600/UJ+4+hour+20+Sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR-JFELqmUASasuMx-s7F3u6njr1BB6rAFCuBYtZ609lc89-WXyUg5wH2dlCDZhB-rRmmOgvwKnDeLqmoTgUMbaa32xNRC23IW-gH-Y1y3myBbCh3whjP2VABQqpQgh5q5IEW_wEs3CLE/s320/UJ+4+hour+20+Sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
Taking the opposite side from its counterparts, UJ commenced the week lower from its last NY close, opening at 98689. Finding support upon a dip to 98445, UJ remained fairly optimistic as it proceeded to consolidate anxiously around 99144, awaiting its fate upon the US Fed's upcoming tapering announcement. With the release of the Fed deciding to hold tapering action in favour of stronger signs of economic growth, UJ reacted dropping over 90 pips, before picking itself back up upon finding support at 97755. This then saw UJ move swiftly back above 99 finding resistance at 76% (99545), closing the NY session at 99215. <br />
<br />
Currently, UJ is positioned at the 23% level maintaining a slightly bearish tone yet still supported withinthis top consolidation area from the bottom 97755 made on the 18th September. A break through the 23% will set a bearish tone for intra-day trading while breaking back towards the mid 99 area will see a re-rest of resistance to contain the pair from further movement north. Breaking above 99545 will see UJ move forward with higher targets in view (see levels below).<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr> <td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>99545 (top) and 98915 (support or bearish continuation)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 99545 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 98900 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 99545 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test at 99662(previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view: 99940 (DR1) followed by 100687 (DR2) and then 100785(MR2). Breaking higher from MR2 will then bring 101758 (DR3) into view.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, a break through 98915 (DP) will expose the following levels: 98106 (DS1), then 97120 (DS2) and finally 96355 (DS3).<br />
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 99940, T2: 100687, T3: 100785<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 98106, T2: 97120, T3: 96355<o:p></o:p></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td> <td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
Chicago Fed Act Index (Sept 23), Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence (Sept 24)Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, JPY Machine Tool Orders (Sept 25), Personal Consumption Exp, GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, JPY National CPI (Sept 26), Personal Spending, Core Personal Consumption Exp, Personal Income, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sept 27) </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></span></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></span></h2>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;"> Want to keep up to date with our posts? We are now on Twitter. Follow</span> <span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">@</span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">GFXTRADER</span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"> </span><span style="background-color: #ffe599; font-weight: normal;">and receive updates throughout the week.</span></span></h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">* Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email </span><a href="mailto:liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-size: xx-small;">..</span></span></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-35495911049128030552013-09-16T19:48:00.000-07:002013-10-09T06:51:06.208-07:00Market Analysis: WC 16 Sept 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
</a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was another week of “risk on” for the majors who ended the week higher than their Asia open. Fueled by strong domestic data and other external factors, the week saw currency pairs revisit old highs and open the door to new levels. GU and its impressive 250 pip climb stood out as the best performer of the pack , while AU assumed its position on the other end. In other markets, Gold retracted by 3.25% with the US equities followed suit also ended the week slightly lower. Meanwhile the Syria crisis still remains on the table with the US proposing possible action as nations find their allies. No doubt that developments in this situation may affect the financial markets across the board and as such, keeping informed is not such a bad idea. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This week sees the US Fed announce their tapering decision along with important data figures across the majors including Interest Rate Decisions, GDP and CPI figures. Be prepared, as this may be a week for some some serious forex movement. </span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GPBUSD</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcq78SnT33yhwMWr3G37x5txa6J4g5ZBXpZ9-XHwalvK_yTEbIhLzW0uok6JsIOlVPboIePQSsnFbj1zTgQ8MZ9gXDlmMxxNOWsZtusWfk42wNxVWkxxaSxS0jZcjqqAJTO0j3Ss88m4/s1600/gbpusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBcq78SnT33yhwMWr3G37x5txa6J4g5ZBXpZ9-XHwalvK_yTEbIhLzW0uok6JsIOlVPboIePQSsnFbj1zTgQ8MZ9gXDlmMxxNOWsZtusWfk42wNxVWkxxaSxS0jZcjqqAJTO0j3Ss88m4/s320/gbpusdh1+15+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Opening the week at 156156, GU started the week in positive form, climbing to a high of 157317 before retreating back under 157 where it proceeded to consolidate in a tight range between 156886 – 157056 until the 10<sup>th</sup> September. This led to another re-test of 157, followed by price advancing slightly higher around 157300 where it consolidated once again in preparation for its next move. The 11<sup>th</sup> Sept finally saw GU break out from the range, printing a bullish break out candle (low of 15226 and high of 158254), closing at 157869. Selling then stepped in taking the cue from move breaching the 158 level, but further move lower got stumped upon approaching 15546, which saw buyers intervene and take control, carefully pushing price back north, breaking over the 158 once again. Support was found around 158229 (76%) and GU remained locked in a tight consolidation moving into the 12<sup>th</sup> September. Now poised at the top, price then retraced back down to 157861 early in the new session, finding new support at the 23%.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
From here, GU immediately bounced back to a high of 158223 , re-attempting a move to the 76% level, which upon its first effort rejected, sending GU in a decline back to 23%. This was followed shortly with another attempt higher resulting once more in rejection, that saw GU trail lower to 157757, finding immediate support, breaking back above 158039 (DP) with the next candle. GU then continued to range briefly around DP, before making a prominent move back north in the form of a bullish marubozu (low of 158159 and high of 158665). Still not faltering, price maintained its position around 158582, where it paused before pushing higher, breaking above DR2 as a new high of 158827 was reached. With the weekend now approaching, GU retraced back to DR2 towards the end of the final NY session, closing at 158717.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It was a relentless climb for GU as it marked over 250 pips from its Asia open at 156156. When looking at the 4 hour chart, it can be seen that once price broke above 156471 and renewed support was secured, 157168 (21 Aug top) became the next target and the pursuit for high levels was now in focus. Bullish momentum was hardly swayed as attempts to follow through lower from key levels remained supported, which kept GU moving north. The 11<sup>th</sup> September marked a significant breakout when GU successfully made the transition into the 158 region upon positive economic data figures. In particular, the Claimant Count change surprised the market with a stronger than expected improvement of -32.6k vs. the forecasted -22k. This followed with an improvement in the unemployment rate which dropped from 7.8% to 7.7%. Combining both results, this re-fueled optimism over the reassurance that the BOE will be able to deliver on meeting their economics targets as Britain continues to progress within its recovery. In response, GU reached a high of 158254, while paving the way for an extension higher.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Evidently, the last few weeks have provided supporting data figures for the Pound, contributing to positive view of the BOE’s actions As such, this has led to the expectation that the British economy will expand by 1.3% this year and again by another 2% in 2014. This of course alongside the recent improvements in employment, which show support towards the possibility of interest rate adjustments being moved forward from 2016 to 2015. Given the importance, this also lends to the rational behind the recent market reaction, as the unemployment rate remains appointed as the economic indicator for adjusting Monetary Policy. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
However on the other side of the argument, even with economic data demonstrating improvements in the domestic economy, this is not to say that the expanding stimulus won’t be implemented in the future. While there is excitement regarding progression, it is still too early and continual evidence supporting the recovery is still needed. As it stands, even the unemployment rate target at 7% is still only regarded as a “threshold” and not a definitive deciding factor. Furthermore, BOE Governor Carney still perceives 2016 as a practical target for initiating any action in this regard, while focus still remains on seeing a stronger economic recovery. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Moving to the charts, this week's price action shows an extension of the positive move made by GU as Britain continues in “progressive mode” .When looking at the 11<sup>th</sup> Sept on the 4 hour chart, a consistent move directly to 158297 can be seen before selling stepped in, hence illustrating the support and optimism surrounding the last few weeks of domestic data combined with fluctuations in the weakness of the US dollar. Clearly 158 has been identified as a possible topping area as seen by the bearish red candle reflecting indecision in anticipation of the upcoming US economic data figures on Friday. However, any preparation to reject the 158 level in favour of a bear move was soon stumped with the release of weaker US data figures which showed that both US retail sales and the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Index underperformed in the last round of figures. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
In regards to where market sentiment now lies, new support created around 157875 (23%), led to a forceful move north , surpassing the 76% level as it made its way towards DR3 (158966), reaching a high of 158841. Currently this still shows GU in the midst of an extended correction higher that upon breaking through 159, will expose GU to the 160 level should the bullish momentum fail to exhaust. With the weekly chart ending the week with a bullish marubozu, it very possible that if resistance is not found around the 159 region, we will most likely see targets around 160 with possible containment at 160450 (MR2), having already broken through MR1 at 157639.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at the immediate levels, 158585 holds as the 76% level followed by 159100 (DR1), 159550 (DR2) and then 160026 (DR3). A move breaking higher from DR3 will place 160500 into view. While a break through the previous day's high of 158841 will need to then break support at the 76% level, placing DP as the next support base at 158420. A confirmed break through DP will see 158013 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish momentum exposing 157690 (DS1), then 157252 (DS2) and finally 156844 (DS3).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 9.2pt; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmRgrAo9i7QgaLj23tDjjKAYtIsOunnssXUwWw14popQ6NQov8J8UeUjXTNRdIQWnfnH0o3kjZi1RnlhCJfFpPPoggNDYvZsAmAq6oqSUpshglnAsY2p-yYkf4w-kCtPYB0RosO53zuMM/s1600/eurusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmRgrAo9i7QgaLj23tDjjKAYtIsOunnssXUwWw14popQ6NQov8J8UeUjXTNRdIQWnfnH0o3kjZi1RnlhCJfFpPPoggNDYvZsAmAq6oqSUpshglnAsY2p-yYkf4w-kCtPYB0RosO53zuMM/s320/eurusdh1+15+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
EU opened the Asia session in a consolidation from its open at 131617, slightly lower than the previous NY close. Starting the session in a tight range between 131660 – 131804, EU proceeded to edge up to 131890 where it stayed briefly in preparation for attempt up to 132. This saw EU slightly pause at 132175 before moving higher to 132444 , continuing to 132799 forming a bearish inverted pinbar as it drew nearer to 133. Price struggled momentarily around current levels as an attempt to push higher was met with sellers taking EU down to 132504 before buyers intervened taking EU back to the 132749. Once again this level met with resistance pushing price back lower in 4 bearish candles, finding support at 132432. The struggle for direction continued as price kept contained between the buying and selling action seen within the range of 132530 -132751, which after some time finally saw the buyers take control, breaking higher from 132610, reaching a high of 133003 with a close of 132930.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
However, this new surge of bullish momentum then paused for a moment, as sellers perched just above 133 pushed price down upon its approach to 132135, forming another inverted pinbar. Upon a follow through lower, support was found just below at 132897, turning the candle into a bullish pinbar that followed with a break to a new high of 133238. Now settled above 132, price continued to range around current levels, moving into the 12th September, which saw EU break this top range and fall back to 132552, a familiar support level. This then led to another move north towards a high of 133241, which once again confirmed resistance, as price rejected accordingly, moving back under 133. This followed with a pause at 132978 (61%),before resuming lower to 132815 (38%). With support found at 132715 (23%) upon a low of 132638, price then bounced back to 132904 (DP) which led to a move back above 133078 (78%), still keeping movement contained under the high of 133211. With price now unable to break the 78% level, sellers seized the opportunity to step in, taking EU from a high of 133101 to a low of 132588. This followed through with another break below 23% upon a low of 132531. With support found at 132610 (DS1), EU then bounced back to resistance at 76%, followed by a late retracement back to DP, closing the NY session with a final price of 132918.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Like the other majors, it was a positive week for the Euro, starting the week just above the mid 131 range at 131617 and closing over 130 pips higher at 132918. Though the ascension was not as dramatic as GU, the consistent pace does reflect EU moving with the flow , yet its non-aggressive approach to its travel upwards still hints caution as price continues higher in the absence of domestic encouragement. Looking at the 1 hour chart, the most significant move for this pair stands with the breakout/bullish marubozu printed on the 9<sup>th</sup> September (low of 132109 and high of 132544) confirming the test of the 132 level, which also set the precedent for the price to maintain its position above 132, as this became the new support level. When observing this more closely, the slow incline to the top supports hesitation and to a degree, a slightly bearish tone, as price continued to challenge itself moving towards the top end of its range. As it stands, EU still continues to move higher, following the other majors, but not without caution. Without a strong catalyst to support the move, it is more likely that resistance will be found in its exploration of the higher price regions. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In regards to data, the week was rather light, with the ECB Monthly Bulletin holding the most significance. However, some other results include an improvement in the Sentix Investor Confidence with a result of 6.5 vs. the forecasted -2.8 while German CPI met expectations at 1.5% though still lower than 1.9%, the previous figure. The German 10 year bond auction also came in a little higher, showing an increase from 1.8% to 2.08%. On the downside, industrial Production came in lower at -2.1% vs. -.04% missing expectations of -0.1% and Italian GDP (Q2) remained unchanged at 2.1% vs. the expected 2.0%. With respect to a more broader outlook, Europe is still on track with keeping inflation within the 2% threshold while the more recent GDP figures show an improvement from the earlier months. Therefore, although projections for GDP show a slight decline for 2013, a 1% increase is forecasted for 2014. Meanwhile, monetary policy still remains flexible while Europe is still in the early stages of its recovery. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at the immediate levels, 133051 is seen as the pivotal level (76%) with a break north seeing resistance at 133260 (DR1), followed by 133589 (DR2), 159550 (DR2) and then 133990 (DR3). A move breaking higher from DR3 will place 134301 into contention. Alternatively, a break through the previous day's high of 133211 will need to then break support at 133051 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 132900. A confirmed break through DP will see 132691 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish momentum exposing 132514 (DS1), then 132144(DS2) and finally 131808 (DS3.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrlNsFD5Qy22i2OjL_8Iuq9k6eWsRjfjUSD9Pqpvv9C7YH5s1_NoVHclZgfUxzM-b2elsoYdWSA0QP0-1RGfVbCmj-wjPJlMz5KduqaPm7eFwbSgjvty6ThMr5h42YG8-wRq-1ycKhXC0/s1600/audusdh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrlNsFD5Qy22i2OjL_8Iuq9k6eWsRjfjUSD9Pqpvv9C7YH5s1_NoVHclZgfUxzM-b2elsoYdWSA0QP0-1RGfVbCmj-wjPJlMz5KduqaPm7eFwbSgjvty6ThMr5h42YG8-wRq-1ycKhXC0/s320/audusdh1+15+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
AU commenced the week in positive form opening at 92022, higher from NY's close at 91806. Starting with a re-test below 92, AU found support at 91669 in the form of a bullish pinbar, breaking out to 92239 which saw price immediately retract back to 91986. However the momentum was not lost as buyers stepped in the dips taking AU first to 92413 and then again on a dip at 92160, pushing AU to 92883 just above DP (91830). This immediately met with selling taking AU back down to 92400 which found buyers at this drop, pushing price back to test 93, first reaching 93129 and then 93180 (61%). This then followed with price retracing back to DP followed by a sharp move towards the 76% which capped price movement, sending price down to DP once again. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
From here, AU then made a move to the 38% level (92750), which rejected accordingly upon buyers taking price back above DP, closing the candle at 93004. Backed by bullish momentum, the 76% level once again became the target and when broken, placed DR1(93364) firmly in view. AU managed to climb to a high of 93533 in anticipation of receiving support from stronger employment change figures forecasting an increase of 10,000 more employed individuals. However the result was a surprising disappointment, that not only missed the forecast completely but saw a decline of 10,800 instead. This immediately sparked an aggressive sell straight from the top down to 92661 in the form of a strong bearish marubozu candle that continued to follow through lower finding support at 92266. Settling in a small consolidation just under the 23% level, AU then broke higher finding resistance slightly higher at the 38% level. This saw AU close the NY session consolidating around the 23% level, closing with a final price of 92413. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Expanding further on economic data, the week started strong with China posting positive figures in Monday’s trading session including improvements in CPI for the month of August as well as positive figures for Industrial Production and stronger Retail Sales. This worked well with the earlier release of domestic data showing improvements in NAB Business Confidence (August) at 6 vs. the previous figure -3 and the Westpac Consumer Confidence also showing more optimism at 4.7% vs. 3.5%. However, this was later offset by the release of weaker figures towards the end of the week including Consumer Inflation Expectations which were lower at 1.5% vs. 2.3% and the negative Employment Change which was accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.8%. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at price movement on a 4 hour chart, we can see price pausing at 91875 in line with the high of the previous two peaks on the 4<sup>th</sup> September, which highlights as a potential top resistance area. However in this case, the level was used as a resting point which saw AU pause momentarily, supporting a minor attempt to break down as buyers entered upon a dip towards 91. This then saw a bullish breakout candle form from a low of 91377 to a high of 92160, provided the signal for a continuation, resuming the momentum from the start of the week. With a break above the 91900 level, higher targets have now come into view along with 93 now open as a strong possibility given that previous resistance has now broken and the next resistance level is positioned at 93203 (refer to daily chart).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
When observing AU’s current position, it still suggests price moving within a correction formed upon a reversal upon a low of 88918 on the 30<sup>th</sup> August. Since then, AU has marking over 400 pips as it continues north and re-visits the 93 range. To date, I have mentioned to watch for sellers poised at key levels who are using the retracements to move with the major trend, utilizing the movement as opportunities to go short. Once again this pattern remains in effect especially given the strong reaction to domestic data. This can be seen with the bearish move towards the end of the NY session which resulted in a sell off of over 100 pips in one 4 hour candle. The fact that the weaker USD figures did not support a strong finish to week as seen with the other majors, does lend to the idea that a possible reality check over its domestic economic position may be starting to factor in. As such, there is still a prevailing bearish tone underlying any correction higher and this is seen with AU still selling at the highs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Since its fall from parity to the break of 90, a significant correction has always been anticipated along with the high 80 area being identified as a possible bottom or attractive corrective entry point. With no firm indication from economic data or the charts that a bottom has been printed, it is still a very plausible scenario to see the lower price regions re-visited in due time. Another break below 90, will most certainly place 87 on the target list having failed to produce a double bottom somewhere a little higher. However having said this, close observation around the 90 level is still advised.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at the immediate levels, 92608 holds as the 76% level, with a break north seeing resistance at 93200 (DR1), followed by 94003 (DR2) and then 94493 (DR3). A move breaking higher from DR3 will place 195201 into view. Alternatively, a break through the previous day's high of 92725 will need to then break support at 92608 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 92962. A confirmed break through DP will see 92345 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish momentum exposing 91875 (DS1), then 91389 (DS2) and finally 90586 (DS3).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span> </div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifxUY5ace9QbOLJYQQbq9vv2HJMZHryZ8Pg2Lvdo1sG7ohjC2TmmawkgKJJG5Hf5NvvBlY4bp6LhhMGGgGcABLuK0Vijgy0_8CNVN66wlXwQmiXopLiqolBgs7UhleLTZ0YrBBWKjkVDk/s1600/usdjpyh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifxUY5ace9QbOLJYQQbq9vv2HJMZHryZ8Pg2Lvdo1sG7ohjC2TmmawkgKJJG5Hf5NvvBlY4bp6LhhMGGgGcABLuK0Vijgy0_8CNVN66wlXwQmiXopLiqolBgs7UhleLTZ0YrBBWKjkVDk/s320/usdjpyh1+15+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It was another positive start for UJ, opening at near 70 pips higher at 99695, from NY's close. This then led to an attempt to 100, reaching a high of 100093 before sellers stepped in around current levels taking UJ back down to 99619 in the next candle. This followed by a steady consolidation retracing slowly towards DP (99458), reaching a low of 93309 as support. UJ then moved higher to DP where it stayed until breaking out on the 10th September from DP straight to the 76% level (99751) reaching a high of 99941 (DR1). With bullish sentiment clearly still prevailing, UJ then moved higher towards 100429 (DR2) reaching a high of 100597 on the 11th September. However this met with uncertainty, and unable to push higher, saw UJ decline steadily, first pausing around 100254 before breaking lower below 100 (99965). This led to further consolidation that saw UJ move cautiously back towards DP (99500) and continue south back towards 99, finding support upon breaching the 99236 ( 23%),forming a pinbar at a low of 99189. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
UJ continued range at current levels with another attempt to the 76% level following shortly after. This saw UJ reject a high of 99716, keeping price contained under 76% as resistance. This followed with an immediate move south with price closing at 99508, setting a temporary bias in favour of a short, following through lower within the next 2 candles as it broke the 23% level, reaching 99006 just above DS1 (98969). With new support found at DS1, UJ then reversed its direction north, climbing back to DP and then higher to the 76% level, where price paused before one more final attempt towards 100. However this attempt only managed to reach 99969 before meeting with resistance, taking UJ back to 99680 in the next candle. This then followed with more ranging at current levels before moving back lower, finding final support at the 23% level, closing the NY session at 99354. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at the charts, it shows UJ reaching familiar territory having reached a high of 100597 on the 11<sup>th</sup> September, aligning with the top of the recent range during early July before it fell to the 97 region moving into the month of August. Once again on approach to the 100600 level, UJ broke down, sending price lower in a steady decline back towards 99, finding temporary support at 99189 before pushing lower to reach a new low of 99006 just above DS1. Holding support just above 99, UJ made another attempt towards the 100 level (psychological level), reaching a high of 99969 on the 13<sup>th</sup> September, which formed an inverted doji, followed by further selling, taking UJ back towards DP (99500), where it found support at the 23% as it tested the parameters of the intra-day top and bottom levels. With a decline over 120 pips from the high of 100597 made on Tuesday, it can be seen that bullish sentiment for UJ has not managed to sustain as the other majors ascended higher during the same time frame. Clearly favour has not been in support o the USD with risk firmly in place which has been attributed by a few factors one being the weakness in the USD over the release of weaker US economic figures which has helped to maintain the bullish sentiment and push the higher key levels of the other majors which saw new highs reached over the week.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
When observing economic data for the US over the longer term, it can be seen that perhaps the US Fed has been too lenient in their projections without fully accounting for the external factors that have played an important role in the global economy. There has been more than one instance of economic projections missing its target, which is particularly the case with its projections regarding economic expansion which saw the US economy expand at 3.2% vs, 4.2% in 2011, 3.4% vs. 4.5% in 2012 and for 2013, the projection stands a little lower at 2.9%. Looking more closely at data, we have seen NFP figures disappoint along with a reduction in productivity and capital spending. With the US Fed due to announce their “tapering” decision later in the week, a general consensus does support some sort of action in this direction, though this must not be misconstrued for a sign of strong economic recovery. In fact, as it stands, we are still seeing mixed figures come out of the US along with a few weaker numbers. The most recent releases being last Friday’s US data which saw retail sales lower at 0.2% vs. 0.4% and the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which missed the mark completely at 76.8 vs. the forecasted 82.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
As such, the very action of tapering has questioned whether the economic data is actually strong enough to warrant the taper. Not too long ago there was expectancy for the NFP to deliver an improvement in the employment status, however it failed to do so, printing a weaker figure of 169 vs. a forecasted 180 instead. Though this disappointment was quickly overcome, as speculation shifted to the improvement in the unemployment rate which saw a reduction at 7.3% vs. 7.4%. So far, this is perceived as suffice in its contribution to green lighting the commencement of tapering later this month. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Looking at the immediate levels, 99784 holds as the 76% level, with a break north seeing resistance at 99850 (DR1), followed by 100354 (DR2) and then 100803 (DR3). A move breaking higher from DR3 will place 101205 into view. Alternatively, a break through the previous day's high of 99969 will need to then break support at 99784 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 99399. A confirmed break through DP will see 99371 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish momentum exposing 98913 (DS1), then 98472 (DS2) and finally 97883 (DS3).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-46683039234955757852013-09-16T19:47:00.000-07:002013-10-09T06:53:23.784-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 16 Sept 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNtkrWmPzxWKPqFZ9ltcYElzVu5RmnaH4WXQ0fbSimXYFoZzoblVn2N-P4nK5YIBgVEtSF1MCZwiHf2jd1zHAM5i_S9g6ImKWRH3gcV8Kf1gyqi2Vwfs_25oUn_cwFy8tlQJVHPxffRsA/s1600/GU+TS+16+Sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNtkrWmPzxWKPqFZ9ltcYElzVu5RmnaH4WXQ0fbSimXYFoZzoblVn2N-P4nK5YIBgVEtSF1MCZwiHf2jd1zHAM5i_S9g6ImKWRH3gcV8Kf1gyqi2Vwfs_25oUn_cwFy8tlQJVHPxffRsA/s320/GU+TS+16+Sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span style="text-align: justify;">Once again bullish sentiment
continued for GU which saw the pair relentlessly climb over 250 pips from its
opening price of 156156 at the start of the week. The move was further
supported by strong domestic data, which accelerated price movement north and was
further fuelled by a weaker US Retail Sales figure which promoting a strong weekly
finish, placing GU as the top performer for the week. With 160 now in view,
movement towards 160203 has now become a key level for observation. </span><span style="text-align: justify;"> </span><span style="text-align: justify;">Currently price sits comfortably at DR2 and
only upon a clear break lower, will a bearish setup come into play, which will
also confirm top resistance.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;">.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to
Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>158585<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to
look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 158585 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 158420(break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above 158585 will promote further bullish
momentum with the first test sitting
at 158841 (previous day's high). Moving north from this level will then bring
the following levels into view: 159100
(DR1), 159550 (DR2) and 160200 (DR3). However, breaking above DR3 will promote
a continuation into the 160 region with 160500 as the next target.
Alternatively, a bearish scenario will need to see a break through the
previous day's high of 158841 followed by a break lower from 158585 (76%).
This will then appoint DP as the next support base at 158420. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br />
Breaking lower from DP will see 158013 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish
momentum exposing the lower levels: 157690 (DS1), then 157252 (DS2) and
finally 156844 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish
Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 159100,
T2: 159550, T3: 160200<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish
Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 157690, T2: 157252, T3: 156844<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
CPI and PPI (Sept 17), BOE Minutes, MPC Vote
Cut/Hike (Sept 18), Retail Sales (Sept 19) and Public Sector Borrowing (Sept
20)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody></tbody></table>
</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH_72H8Kn1q0ZM32wc0ohO6lX8y8ib2hfMM-_mGa6SbRLvqEJ4dd1zqCeiBGzt_4Nwo3PtyeIDL-DO0XbywqTKWI8DRwoBhKboZNLdDaQqoNHsgzpCgPRRY2s66Q0RmI8E1JTRcUat-GE/s1600/EU+TS+16+SEPT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH_72H8Kn1q0ZM32wc0ohO6lX8y8ib2hfMM-_mGa6SbRLvqEJ4dd1zqCeiBGzt_4Nwo3PtyeIDL-DO0XbywqTKWI8DRwoBhKboZNLdDaQqoNHsgzpCgPRRY2s66Q0RmI8E1JTRcUat-GE/s320/EU+TS+16+SEPT.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was a positive week for EU, as
risk appetite set in, supporting a 130 pip rise over the next few days. Although, the week was light on data, EU still
managed to break through the 132 region, testing higher key levels above 133. With the European economy recovering at a
moderate pace, alongside current uncertain political and social activities in
different regions of the Euro area, it is possible that EU may once again seek
a resistance level as it revisits the old highs. While price movement was not as smooth as some of its counterparts, this
new week now sees 134 as a target for resistance/continuation.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to
Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>133051<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to
look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 1333051 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 132900 (break below)</b><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
A break above 133051 will
promote bullish momentum level which will first test 133211 (previous day's
high). Moving north from this level will place the following levels into
view: 133260 (DR1) followed by 133589
(DR2) and then 133990 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will then bring 134301
as the next target. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Alternatively, a
break through the previous day's high of 133211 will then need to break
support at the 133051 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 132900. A
confirmed break through DP will see 132691 (23%) re-tested with stronger bearish momentum exposing
132514 (DS1), then 132144 (DS2) and finally 131808 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish
Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 133260,
T2: 133589, T3: 133990<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish
Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 132514, T2: 132144 T3: 131808<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential
Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
CPI (Sept 16), ZEW Survey (Sept 17), Consumer
Confidence (Sept 20)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjme5p4KOXoLgv6WAxuuCI9-vr-vR8Gp8ywWkFgivvkpi4d_4amA0YKTDPxpZckosC7B0ztZrehaET3NqhuB2rKRxpYQAeu2mmNOzXoCuDtoUURqpVwopoIChGU7JmaFMD6N399CH_HSwQ/s1600/AU+TS+16+Sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjme5p4KOXoLgv6WAxuuCI9-vr-vR8Gp8ywWkFgivvkpi4d_4amA0YKTDPxpZckosC7B0ztZrehaET3NqhuB2rKRxpYQAeu2mmNOzXoCuDtoUURqpVwopoIChGU7JmaFMD6N399CH_HSwQ/s320/AU+TS+16+Sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
AU ranked as one of the bottom
performers amongst the majors last week as it retraced its gains, finishing the
week only 40 pips higher from its Asia open. No doubt that the weaker than expected
Employment Change figure coupled with the higher Unemployment Rate played a
significant part in containing price, which resulted in an immediate response
of a 100 pip move lower. However, with
price now back above 92, it is clear that AU remains within the correction formed
on the 30<sup>th</sup> August from a low of 88918. This has so far resulted in
a 400 pip bounce back north as it once again re-visits the 93 range. The fact that
USD weakness had a minimal effect on the pair towards the end of the week, does
suggest that perhaps the prevailing bearish view may start to resurface soon.
With the current scenario unchanged, it is still expected that sellers continue
to be poised at the higher key levels. This should at contain price movement
until a catalyst can break AU out of its range. <b><o:p></o:p></b></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to
Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>92608<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to
look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 92725 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL:92962 (break below)</b><br />
<br />
A break above 92608 will promote
bullish momentum level which will first test 92725 (previous day's high).
Moving north from this level will place the following levels into view: 93200 (DR1) followed by 94003 (DR2) and
then 94493 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will then bring 195201 as the next
target. Alternatively, a break through
the previous day's high of 92725 will then need to see support broken at
92608 (76%), placing DP as the next support base at 92692 . A confirmed break
through DP will see 92345 (23%) re-tested
with stronger bearish momentum exposing 91875 (DS1), then 91389 (DS2)
and finally 90586 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish
Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 93200,
T2: 94003 , T3: 94493<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish
Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 91875, T2: 91389, T3: 90214<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential
Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
RBA Minutes (Sept 17), Westpac Leading Index
(Sept 18), RBA Bulletin (Sept 19)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Le4VECg8o3AlfkZyjFKkfxSBb_FrHGZVg6Vjm4BmaqknRCqur-4cEB14q2B3ExWzviRDl9O3TC0WwucPF8BAqe-e7G4fWlIMpdZRGt_SXyfsrBOairi1oCLnxeUolMYHo4shiWuLjXw/s1600/usdjpyh1+15+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Le4VECg8o3AlfkZyjFKkfxSBb_FrHGZVg6Vjm4BmaqknRCqur-4cEB14q2B3ExWzviRDl9O3TC0WwucPF8BAqe-e7G4fWlIMpdZRGt_SXyfsrBOairi1oCLnxeUolMYHo4shiWuLjXw/s320/usdjpyh1+15+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was a positive start for UJ,
opening near 70 pips higher at 99695, from NY's close. However upon the
release of weaker US retail sales, UJ reversed its bullish position from a high
of 99969 ending the week lower at 99354. With the US tapering decision expected to be
announced later this week, the event holds potential as a major catalyst for
USD and the majors alike. Currently UJ is sitting around the 23% level and should this level
hold, it is possible that we may see market sentiment turn in favour of the US
dollar as anticipation builds moving closer to the US Fed announcement.<b><span style="background: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Level to
Watch:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>99784<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>What to
look for:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>BUY: 99969 (break above)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b>SELL: 99399 (break below)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
A break above
99784 will promote bullish momentum level which will first test 99969
(previous day's high). Moving north from this level will place the following
levels into view: 99850 (DR1) followed
by 100354 (DR2) and then 100803 (DR3). Breaking higher from DR3 will then
bring 101205 as the next target. Alternatively, a break through the previous day's high of 99969
will then need to see support broken at 99784 (76%), placing DP as the next
support base at 99399. A confirmed break through DP will see 99371 (23%)
re-tested with stronger bearish
momentum exposing 98913 (DS1), then 98472 (DS2) and finally 97883 (DS3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bullish
Levels:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 100354,T2: 100803, T3: 101328<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Bearish
Levels<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
T1: 98913, T2: 98472, T3: 97883<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 2.9pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 133.0pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b>Potential
Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 2.9pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
CPI, Long Term TIC flows, Housing Market Index
(Sept 17), Building Permits and Housing States, Interest Rate Decision, FOMC
Economic Projections, Monetary Policy Statement (Sept 18) BOJ Speech (Sept
20)<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">* Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email </span><a href="mailto:liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-size: xx-small;">..</span></span></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-85745284586006438682013-09-09T03:06:00.002-07:002013-10-09T06:54:36.622-07:00Market Analysis: Week Ending 6 Sept 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"></span><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial;"></span> </a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was quite an eventful week with the majors ending the last NY session sustained at the opposite spectrum from Monday’s Asia open. The disappointment in the NFP figure at the end of the week provided opportunities of advancement for the majors against the USD, while UJ who made its way back to the 100 level, retreated. In other markets, the US Indexes retraced gains during the last day of trading, contributing to the weakness in the USD, while oil prices rose upon concerns over the Syria crisis. Moving into the second week of September, US tapering will now be brought into focus which may reflect in the charts. However, also sharing the stage is the Syria Crisis as developments continue to </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">be watched carefully .</span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></b><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="text-align: justify;">
</span>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></span></div>
<br />
<hr />
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrRnBcK7VUYV_W3CamrLufnadgfRWmVWIblEgDXY_8udrLU6pnwLjYV7wquneK9pU0bSbpEt-p9DuD7PhWa0uci-hJDzW0DnUBU_YDD8GDJGtT39CSE3XL2H2pUqB4Mfc4Rz-e1VJBifk/s1600/gbpusdh1+6+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrRnBcK7VUYV_W3CamrLufnadgfRWmVWIblEgDXY_8udrLU6pnwLjYV7wquneK9pU0bSbpEt-p9DuD7PhWa0uci-hJDzW0DnUBU_YDD8GDJGtT39CSE3XL2H2pUqB4Mfc4Rz-e1VJBifk/s320/gbpusdh1+6+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GU opened the Asia session higher at 155296, moving north into the mid 155500 range shortly after. From here, price consolidated within a tight range (155433 – 155616), before once again breaking higher to attempt 156. Reaching only 155928, GU was unswayed and continued to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>linger tightly around 155844<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>before breaking lower first to 155598 giving way to a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>bearish marubozo (high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>155645 and low of 155330).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finding its feet around this level, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>GU then proceeded to march cautiously back north towards 155638 (top of the bearish marubozu) where another attempt to short was rejected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Buyers then stepped in upon a low of 155360 which upon reaching 155660 earlier move lower covered and indicated a change in direction. This was confirmed by the print of a bullish hammer that led GU back north to attempt a break of 156,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>reaching a high of 156021. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As if on cue, sellers stepped in, transforming the candle into an inverted pinbar, closing at 155752. This was followed by <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>strong bearish candle (high of 155744 and low of 155420) and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>inverted cross doji, that took <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>GU to a low of 155281 with the next candle. The <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>new surge of bearish momentum then led<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>another attempt lower, which saw 155202 hold as support, reversing the direction to a high of 155725 in a quick 3 candle move. Having now found higher support, GU consolidated between 155517 - 155724 into the next day, breaking higher on the 4th Sept, reaching a high of 156304 (61%,) before re-tracing back to 156026 (23%) where it found support. From here, GU broke out higher again with the next candle (low of 155948 and high of 156284) prompting a further move north, only to find resistance upon a breach of 156460 (76%).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contained by this high, GU proceeded to march back down, settling briefly <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at 156081(38%) and supported at (23%) with a series of pinbars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This led to a significant breakout candle on the 5th Sept (low of 156096 and high of 156626), which spurred back bullish momentum. However upon reaching 156667, sellers once again intervened, sending price back down to 155719 where it consolidated into the 6th Sept.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Moving lower towards DP, GU<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>met with resistance as it consolidated here before promptly breaking down, reaching a new low at 155641. This level saw a surge of bullish momentum taking GU from 155629 to a high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>156801 upon economic data . <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now positioned at the higher realm of the price range, GU consolidated around this level until the end of the NY session, closing above 156 at 156252.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Positive economic data over the week supported the bullish momentum which saw Interest Rates remain unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations, while the Asset Purchasing Program was also kept unchanged at £375B with a reinvestment of £1.9B worth of cash flow currently held with the facility. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both outcomes were well received by the market, which assisted <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in stumping a move lower. This <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> was </span>also complimented by a round of positive economic data released earlier in the week which included figures such as : Markit Manufacturing (PMI) showing an improvement from 55 (forecasted)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to 57.3, PMI Construction (Aug) at 59.1 vs. 56.8 (forecasted), Markit Services PMI<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> which came in <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>stronger at 60.5 vs. 59,</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> and Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul) which was saw an improvement at 0.7% vs -0.8%. Offsetting this however, were some underperforming figures released towards the end of the week such as the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trade Balance (Jul) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>showing a larger deficit at <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>£-4.528B vs -2.950B <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and consumer Inflation expectations which were weaker at 3.2% vs. previous 3.6%. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the domestic front, economic data continues to show signs of economic improvement, and therefore it will be no surprise for the release<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>of positive figures to continue supporting an extended move higher, However, it must be noted that the release of positive figures most likely reflects that the economic recovery is on track rather than supporting the notion of advancing expectations. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The BOE still stands by their forecast of meeting their targets between the year 2015 – 2016. Therefore adjustments to monetary policy in the interim will be unlikely. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, even with a week bolstered by good data, any advancement higher still contributes to the view of a correction rather than a reversal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When looking at the charts, the high of 157507 made on the 17 June still holds as top resistance with GU's most recent effort made on the 6th of September to 156801, having met with strong rejection pushing price down to a close of 156249. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> This shows that there is still </span>eluctance in pushing forward<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>into the 157 region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the fact that GU closed the week consolidating slightly higher around 156300 (61%),lends to the possibility that another attempt higher may be on route as price <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> s</span>its in a position of indecision. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With 157 presenting uncertainty, an initial attempt above this level should see some sellers repeating the same moves from the 156 area, especially without the support of data or economic developments in favour of risk appetite. With the US tapering decision drawing closer into focus, speculation regarding this decision or the affect it will have on the USD cannot be discounted. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">While movements in the Syria crisis also cannot be ignored, as the situation continues. Any developments in this crisis still provides cause for concern<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as this situation continues to poses as a problem for financial markets in the near term. </span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Moving to the charts, the 4 hour currently shows a momentary reversal from the downtrend formed in the last week of August, having completed a retracement back above 100% upon reaching a high of 156801. This level aligns with the resistance area from the previous week. On the daily, this level is represents a potential double top formation should price find resistance around current levels or upon a rejection around 157.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When looking at the current chart set up, the more immediate levels that come into focus are a break upon of 156528 (76%) and a re-test of 156147(DP) as this would provide a clear understanding of direction. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In regards to the immediate view of the currency, It would be safer to stay within the wider parameters of price movement as top resistance comes closer into view with 157500 not too far in the distance, while 154264 remains as the recent bottom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So far, the nearest support level is being held by the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>pinbar (low 154254,)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>formed on the 28th August which also equates to a level just below DS3. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>156<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>now holds as DP and a break lower will bring 155906 (23%) as the next support level, followed by 155554(DS1), 15411(DS2) and then 154480(DS3). If GU moves north first, the first point of resistance lies at 156524(76%) followed by 156752(DR1), followed by 157346 (DR2) and then 157928(DR3).</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf1IDjK7n_FpHjcLvPmdBb6Uu6552qLc3IEO7egu-N48C8knKRvu6EzblgBYh7AUFJbRFD1YiXPgD0Cqf4gLhi8GsxRjh4thLrnG1BHE2k37TKC0aPd3ge45sJtWDuQvJl4IjxFoH5Jps/s1600/eurusdh1+6+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf1IDjK7n_FpHjcLvPmdBb6Uu6552qLc3IEO7egu-N48C8knKRvu6EzblgBYh7AUFJbRFD1YiXPgD0Cqf4gLhi8GsxRjh4thLrnG1BHE2k37TKC0aPd3ge45sJtWDuQvJl4IjxFoH5Jps/s320/eurusdh1+6+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Opening slightly lower at 132111, EU started the week contained within a range between 131963 -<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>132111 before moving to a high of 132266 which saw price try to sustain at this level before finding resistance at 132254. Sellers then stepped in marching EU back down to a low of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>131865. Finding support around this level, EU remained consolidated between a tight range of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>131963 -131851 before breaking lower in the form of a significant bearish candle (high of 131920 and low of 131686) on the 3rd Sept. From here, price consolidated around the 131725 level in a row of pinbars which saw EU try to support itself just under 132. This was however stumped by the print of a bearish inverted pinbar (high of 131864) which saw EU dip down to 131583 with the next candle, closing<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>higher at 131697 forming yet another pinbar. The effort to sustain at current levels continued for the next couple of hours until price broke through reaching a low of 131436, which extended <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>lower to 131379 in the next candle forming a prominent pinbar closing at 131626.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having reached just above 131, EU moved back higher within the range <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>initially testing a break in both directions before settling higher around 131759. This then led to a breakout higher, forming a bullish pinbar that took price back towards 131928 and finally to test the 132 area, reaching a high of 132172 .<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However hesitation set in once more which saw EU retrace slowly back to 131628 finding momentary support at 131663 (50%). From here, EU made a small bullish run back to 132175, pausing around this level before making one last attempt higher. However upon reaching 132226, sellers came on to the scene sending EU down over 100 pips in one candle, where it found support at 23%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, with strong bearish sentiment in motion, this level broke lower prompting a continuation. Bring 131 now into focus, this saw EU reach a low of </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 131040 before buyers stepped in taking EU back north to a high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>131882, just above 61%. However upon approach, this was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>immediately met with rejection, printing a bearish inverted pinbar. EU continued to maintain its strength in this upper region around 131644 before breaking higher to 131695(61%) towards the end of the NY session.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This week the ECB kept interest rates on hold at 0.5% which met with expectation. Other data figures released include: improvements in GDP which beat expectations at -0.5% vs. the forecasted -0.7%, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Germany Markit Services PMI (Aug) also came in positive at 52.8 vs. the expected 52.4 while the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>underperforming figures included Italy’s Markit Services PMI (Aug) which missed expectations 48.8 vs. 49.4 and European Markit Services PMI (Aug) which was also lower at 50.7 vs. 51. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Adding to this were <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>European Markit PMI<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Composite (Aug) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>51.5 vs 51.7 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and Retail Sales which were down at -1.3% vs. 0.4%.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It can be interpreted that that the mixed results actually contribute to the reflection <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>of the current state of the Eurozone economy which although does show sign of improvement, still clearly has quite a path to travel. This is contributed by fact that strength as a whole is not actually case with some Euro countries still actually in recession and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>experiencing extremely low levels of economic growth just above 0%. In regards to pollitical uncertainty within the Euro region. It is not just exclusive to Italy, which has been the recent focus, but also extends to Spain and Portugal. While on the other hand, the Greek government faces the possibility of a collapse within 6 months. As it stands, in order to see real signs of financial stability, internal structures need to compliment the data in order to portray a system capable of achieving economic goals. Therefore, though we may not be focused on</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> a series of bailouts as seen in 2012, other issues take precedent and contribute to the view that financial stability is in the preliminary stages and is still goal that is on its way. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>EU commenced the start of its bear run on the 27th August which saw EU fall from top consolidation at 133891, when attempts to break 134 exhausted instead leading to a break of range that took EU back down to at low of 131727 on the 30th August. This level turned into support which saw EU retrace back to the bottom of the previous consolidation level before moving lower back to 131 steadily until support was found at 131379 on the 3rd September. This did not instigate a sudden rush of buying but it did hold EU above board as it remained locked in range until a break out on the 4th September. Twice both attempts above 132 were met with rejection which in the second instance saw EU fall drastically back towards 131 reaching a low of 131044. The NFP results which came in weaker at 169k on Friday, became the catalyst in boosting EU back to the higher realm of the 131 region where price currently sits at 61%. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Like GU there is room for this pair to re-test higher before once again meeting with resistance that will see sellers push EU back down. This is especially the case since the retracement made at the end of the NY session was not instigated by positive domestic data but rather the weakness in the USD which in itself can be turbulent. Therefore, if the NFP results came in stronger, it is very possible that EU may have broken the 131 level, which when looking at the bottom consolidation formed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>after the dramatic fall from a high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>132226 to a bottom of 131099, appeared to be a possibility as the charts show price tried to break lower from this bottom range, only to be bought back up, settling around 61% until the close of the NY session.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the immediate view, should EU continue higher, 131683 holds as the 76% level and a break above this will bring 132 back into view. A break above this level will need to be cleared in order to see higher targets. The higher targets are 132289(DR1), 132838(DR2) and 133474(DR3). However a break of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>131650(DP) will find immediate support at<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>131239 (23%) and breaking this will expose 131112(DS1) 130490(DS2) and then 129918(DS3).</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4EkjEVA9CjoTcPm2puzOO4oPLU1gZXuyvcnnFluVbbdqQ4w3qxVdJ94295sCPl9K6lc0ipHt8JK-t58I2hMoGyydYbQ8cTVzWw1vCE1oMktwaVNC83bgx4LWPgfWhEedd-bRpIv1i_2E/s1600/audusdh1+6+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4EkjEVA9CjoTcPm2puzOO4oPLU1gZXuyvcnnFluVbbdqQ4w3qxVdJ94295sCPl9K6lc0ipHt8JK-t58I2hMoGyydYbQ8cTVzWw1vCE1oMktwaVNC83bgx4LWPgfWhEedd-bRpIv1i_2E/s320/audusdh1+6+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AU started the week quite optimistic, opening the Asia session over 40 pips higher from the previous week's NY close.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This followed a small drop to 89234, which found support taking AU on a small bullish run, as buyers came onto the scene at 89248 taking AU to a high of 90133.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finding resistance upon testing 90, AU formed another inverted pinbar upon a high of 90111 which saw AU move back to a low of 89634, aligning with the previous consolidation point. From here, AU then proceeded back north <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>above 90 to 90246 before hesitation once again set in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>taking price back south to 89717 where support was found. This led to a break higher where AU reached 90416 in a bullish breakout candle from a low of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>89794. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Settled above 90 (90405), price cautiously moved higher, reaching 90680 before<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>retracting back to 90382. AU then moved into the mid range around 90534 where it consolidated briefly before breaking higher with a bullish breakout candle( low of 90367 and high of 90937). This then fuelled more optimism, sending AU back on its mission which saw price ascended steadily to a high of 91866 before once again finding resistance. However, the bullish tone was now set and AU now maintain wedged in a range between 91781 and 91610 (just above 76% - 61%).However, on the 5th Sept, AU retraced back south, finding support around 91430(38%) which<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>led to a re-test lower towards 91, reaching <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>91115.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From here, AU edged back to 91325(23%), proceeding to 91430 (38%). Price paused at this level briefly, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>before resuming higher, taking AU from 91515(50%) to a high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>92160 (just over DR2) in one candle. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finding resistance in familiar territory,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a bearish inverted pinbar was shortly formed leading AU back down under 92, closing the week positively with a final price just under 100%<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>at<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>91806.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This week, the RBA kept rates unchanged<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>which provided fuel for the AUD prompting the continuation of an uptrend until the end of the week. This then found further encouragement upon the late weakness in the USD upon the NFP results on Friday. Economic data for the week were mixed with GDP (Q2) posting 0.6% vs. 0.5%, exceeding expectations, while GDP (YoY) came inhigher at <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2.6% vs. 2.5% along with Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) which saw an improvement at <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>28.3% vs. -11.8%. On the the side, Retail Sales disappointed at <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>0.1% vs forecasted 0.4% along with AiG Performance<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> 43.7 vs. previous 44.1 and of course the Trade Balance which came in lower at -765M vs. 110M.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In regards to the general outlook,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a negative bias has now been shifted to a neutral stance with the Australian economy<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>growing slightly under par. This is in response to a few factors including the changes in the mining sector and slight improvements based upon the effects of the depreciating AUD. However even in light of the dramatic fall which now extends to a low just under 88, the RBA still stands in support of its role in promoting economic growth. Therefore the possibility of another rate cut later in the year cannot be ruled out.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the charts, it was a very bullish week for the AUD which opened at 894200 from 88997 (previous NY price), reaching a high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>92160 (DR2). When looking at the daily chart, AU still appears contained within range and only a break above 92970 will we see AU correct north to a potential high of the 94 -95 area. However, both the one hour and 4 hour show AU in a possible continuation mode<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that if 92 is re-visited may have the possibility of extending to 93. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On closer observation with the 4 hour chart, this shows price sitting at a familiar topping area which may once again act as a possible top resistance level in line with the top of 92326 made on the 19th August and 92204 made on the 12th August. Therefore a re-attempt back to this level is highly plausible and should rejection not met at similar levels, a move to extend the move will see sellers poised and ready to take AU down at the higher key levels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> So far, </span>AU has demonstrated its determination to protect movement as<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it edges lower. This can be seen with the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>rebound from the 90 level which then turned into protecting the 89 level once 90 was breached. Any movement beyond this point has been quickly reject thus far with price moving back to 90. As AU finds itself back towards 92, it will only be a matter of deciding where resistance lies and strength/weakness in the USD may be the contributor to price movement <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as the US tapering decision draws near. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Therefore, should AU move forward with its continuation north, we will need a clear break of 92 with 92236(DR1) as the first resistance level, This will be followed by 92691(DR2) and then 93270(DR3). However, upon a break of 91650, this will then see the first point of support at 91389(DP) followed by 91250(DS1), 90663(DS2) and then 90214(DS3). </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span></span> </div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2faLsxrKyfFTKwpviwJ8lulf_JtUDI9giz-iMEUCL99O5GDfwExKkjFxyUwiMaHaiczeQpRRg9xKj8qAFm_-wwfrQmjHadZIkpERfxKoUNRVYGR3yolC5tW3SGpOhhzCoXDZZAUMNbzI/s1600/usdjpyh1+6+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2faLsxrKyfFTKwpviwJ8lulf_JtUDI9giz-iMEUCL99O5GDfwExKkjFxyUwiMaHaiczeQpRRg9xKj8qAFm_-wwfrQmjHadZIkpERfxKoUNRVYGR3yolC5tW3SGpOhhzCoXDZZAUMNbzI/s320/usdjpyh1+6+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The week started strong for UJ, opening the week at 98421 from 98147 (previous NY close). There</span> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">was really only one direction for this pair which saw<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>very little retraction before liftoff<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>as UJ broke higher upon the 4th candle to a high of 98609, finding higher support that led to UJ catapulting to a high of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>99373 from a low of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>98520 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in two bullish candles not long after. Now settled above 99, UJ continued to range around the highs, catching an attempt lower at 99110 that saw buyers bring the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>price back in line where it consolidated briefly (around 99314),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>before breaking higher to 99697 in 3 candles. Once at this new high, price then retraced back to the low of 99327, where another attempt north rseulted in reaching 99695, which promptly signaled a sell off, taking UJ from a high of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>99663 to a low of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>99183 in a bearish marubozu.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However support was found at 99161 which saw price close at 99372 and move back north to 99608, where it ranged before breaking out to a new high of 99854. This level immediately met with sellers as a bearish candle formed from a high of 90804 to a low of 99400 and followed <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>through with the next two candles, taking UJ to a new low of 99233.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once again, support<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> was found which prompted </span>a move back north towards 99800.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Upon reaching this level, UJ then fell back lower finding support at 99311 which encouraged a continuation higher <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with UJ moving back towards 99875. It then ranged around this level moving into the 5th Sept. Finlly ready to make a move, a brief struggle for direction led to a bullish breakout to 100082, breached the psychological 100 level. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Upon reaching <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>100110, price continued to range around the high 99 level, rejecting an attempted short from a high of 99962 to 99632. This saw UJ continue its trek higher, reaching a top of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>100211 (just above MR1). It was here that sellers poised above the 100 level stepped in taking UJ back down to 99684 in three bearish candles, pausing around 9967 (DS1). However UJ remained supported at 99484 which led to another attempt back towards 100 (reaching 99858). However once again, this level met with sresistance which saw price fall from a high of 99858 to a low of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>98791 in one candle. This then followed through with an extension lower to 98529 .Supported, UJ moved back north to DS3 where it paused before proceeding higher to DS2 . Rejecting this level, UJ closed the NY session at 999070.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">UJ displayed an impressive run from the start of the week which led to a less than strong finish upon the the results of the Non Farm Payroll figure. The US equity markets were also partly responsible for contributing to the weakness, with the US Indexes reversing earlier gains as we moved towards the end of the week. In regards to economic data, the USD was supported by a round of positive figures including: Construction Spending which came in higher at 0.6% vs. 0.3%, ISM Manufacturing showing an improvement in the manufacturing sector at<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>55.7 vs. 54 , ISM Prices Paid which was higher at 54 vs. 52 and the average hourly earnings which<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> beat expectations </span>at 2.2% vs. 2.0%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was further complimented by an improvement in the unemployment rate which saw a reduction from 7.4% to 7.3%. However, offsetting the good news, was the big <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Non Farm Payroll Figure which came in under par at 167k vs. the expected 180k.Meanwhile, the Beige Book, also released during the week, stated that the US economy grew at a fairly moderate pace, which falls in line with previous releases. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For Japan, figures included Foreign Bond Investment which came in at ¥530.9B vs. ¥316.4B, Foreign Investment in Stocks resulting in ¥175.0B vs. ¥88.8B and the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coincident Index (Jul) which missed expectations <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with 106.4 from the forecasted 106.9. This was joined by the Leading Economic Index (Jul) which was also slightly lower at 107.8 vs. 107.9. According to the latest BOJ monthly report, Japan is still expected to grow at a moderate pace which will include improvements in housing and business <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>investment, as well as an<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>increase in exports. However private consumption which has been subdued due to recent conditions<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>will pick up once there are notable improvements in the areas of employment and industry as well.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Moving to the charts, UJ currently sits around the 23% levell, supported by the pinbar with a low of 98529. It is possible that we may see a continuation of UJ's journey north if bullish momentum overrides the reaction to the Non Farm Payroll figure later in the week particularly with the US tapering decision due soon. This may lend itself as a major catalyst for a bullish USD move or at least contain risk in the meantime. Given the mix of US data figures recently and in light of the weaker NFP figure, the situation does now question whether tapering will commence in September as proposed. It is possible that the improvement in the unemployment rate may lend higher consideration over the latest figure, which will see the US Fed to continue with its plans. This may point to initiation of a "light taper" which includes a reduction of $10B per month once tapering commences.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the longer time frames, UJ still sits within the range, although a shift in its position now seess UJ sitting towards the top region. This does open the possibility for a re-test back towards 100 if<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UJ can sustain above 98529 (23%) in the interim. Should this occuur, the 100 price level will be the next target. A break higher from 100 will then bring 100874<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>into view followed by 101660 and then 101989. However, a fall back towards 99 will then require a break below 98926 . This will expose 98274 followed by 97552 and then 97199. Moving below 97 will bring 96605 into view.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-40058067004596897392013-09-02T07:29:00.000-07:002013-10-09T06:55:37.511-07:00Market Analysis: Week Ending 1 September 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s200/blogger+2systems.png" width="200" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial;"></span> </a><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was a ride down for the majors against the USD as risk aversion set in upon developments with the Syria crisis, which at the same time, saw the USD regain some strength as September brings the US tapering closer into view. In other markets, Gold fell alongside the American indexes who also retreated in response to the Syria crisis, ending the week lower. This week starts a little light with the US and Canada enjoying their Labour Day holiday ahead of what appears to be quite a busy week ahead. There are a few important figures around interest rates, GDP and inflation due out in the next few days, with NFP figures as the grand finale. We may very well be in for a very interesting week.</span></span><span style="background-attachment: scroll; background-clip: border-box; background-image: none; background-origin: padding-box; background-repeat: repeat; background-size: auto; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br />
</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<hr />
<br /></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkFwW3_6ni_SHdrpPwQPCZ6BEQ9vow-J4-whv-S5gq3o2hqh-f1-VQYf3mD3xxLScUoxheq9j8NRx7U4dYN6zoWpPQbxL4HQwyQEiZWs9rIhYkRg157-Fsw-e3I1gUkPFbRhCwXIwAr3s/s1600/gu+chart++1hr+30+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkFwW3_6ni_SHdrpPwQPCZ6BEQ9vow-J4-whv-S5gq3o2hqh-f1-VQYf3mD3xxLScUoxheq9j8NRx7U4dYN6zoWpPQbxL4HQwyQEiZWs9rIhYkRg157-Fsw-e3I1gUkPFbRhCwXIwAr3s/s320/gu+chart++1hr+30+aug.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GU commenced the week opening at 155621 followed by a tight consolidation lasting over both the Asia and London sessions. However it was not long before the New York session made the move taking GU first to a low of 155643, followed by an immediate retracement to back north to a high of 156112 (just above R3). Resistance upon a breach of 156 then brought GU back to around 155729, in line with the low of its previous range. The next day saw GU exert effort once more towards 156 (high of 155875) which rejected for the second time, taking GU even lower to 155454, followed by an extended fall to 155044. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Upon breaking 155, GU resumed south, reaching a new low of 154813 which found support in the form of a pinbar. This then prompted a move back higher first towards 155225 (61%) and then to 155506, re-testing the 76% level. Finding resistance at this level, GU broke from this level in a steady decline, reaching 154478. The 28<sup>th</sup> Aug saw an attempt to follow through with a bearish continuation, however upon its approach towards 1544000, buyers stepped in at 154264, propelling a surge of bullish momentum that reversed direction back north to a high of 155379 in one bold move. Fuelled by this renewed optimism, any bearish attempts were now refuted, leaving GU to maintain its position wedged between the 61% -76% levels. </span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This was short lived however, as rejection set in, prompting GU to decline lower back to 154975(23%). The 29th August saw price holdhere as support, retracing slightly higher back above 155 but without much gust while it was still capped by the 155225 (61%). However upon reaching a high of 155272, GU surrendered, falling back to a low of 154618, just under DS1. Forming support, GU then made its move back north in a small bullish ladder to 154975(23%). One last attempt to re-test DP (15511) saw GU reach 155093 but unable to sustain, it fell back down, closing at 154959(23%).</span></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The week was rather light with data however it did present at least one important event with a speech to UK parliament addressing Monetary Policy and the BOE's outlook on the Bristish economy. In this speech Mark Carney outlined the concerns of the general public while re-iterating the MPC’s commitment to their economic recovery. Touching upon familiar territory, "forward guidance" was once again the focal point with an emphasis on the 7% unemployment rate target being perceived as only a threshold for when the MPC will consider “reassessing the state of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy". It was also mentioned that that the MPC did not see this target achievable any time soon given the uncertainty with economic forecasts over the next couple of years. As such, interest rates were not expected to rise in the near future.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although the speech was more of a re-iteration of the plan already presented with a touch of a dovish tone, the market reacted positively, taking GU in a bull run back north from the current lows. Hence, stumping any further movement towards a continuation lower. </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Economic data did very little to sway sentiment in either direction, however the GBP did realease a <span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> couple of positive figures during the week such as Mortgage Approvals (Jul) which came in at 60.624K vs. 59.000K, Consumer Credit resulting in €0.6B vs. £0.4B and Net Lending to Individuals which saw an improvement from£1.1B to £1.3B.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Moving to the charts, it can be seen that the break of the top consolidation formed last week opened the path to test lower once the range was broken.</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bearish 3 candle move from 155743 to 0155044 following the break, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">represents GU's strength which price break through DR1 straight to DP, where it momentarily rested. T</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">he pinbar (low of 154813) printed on the 27th August provided the signal to test-higher which upon reaching 100% rejected accordingly which in itself suggested that a bearish sentiment was in play and that a re-test of DP would determine whether GU would aim for lower targets. The rejection of the </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3 pinbars holding at DP as support, paved the way for the extension of the fall which saw GU reach DS1 and then further to DS2. Although potential for a continuation </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">was presented in the sell off from 1.54975 (23%) to 154440 (DS2), the rejection of the final extension to 154264</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> eliminated this as a prospect once price reversed higher </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">closing at 155379. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However the </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> most interesting thing to note in the charts is </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the sharp surge back above DP </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">which despite the build up of momentum, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> failed to follow through in continued reversal.</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Therefore the market reaction to this event remains a little questionable. This is especially case with the presented hesitation following the bullish breakout, which saw </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GU remain uneventful for the remainder of week, well </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">positioned near the lows. Secondly, as uncertainty looms regarding the situation in Syria and US tapering starts to </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">come into view, any positive advancements in the USD will see GU continue its trek down towards 154 and beyond. </span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With GU sitting just under 154975 (23%), the next level to be tested is 15507 (DP). A break above this level will expose GU to a run up to 155118 (76%) and containment within this level will see GU move back south. However, extending above this level, the next targets sit at 15540 (DR1), followed by 155862 (DR2) and finally 156260 (DR3). Alternatively, a break below will see 154536 (DS1), followed by 154138 (DS2) and then 1543679(DS3).</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfO30_DzznvnB5we3_FlOwqBbJzlovn-8-wGB35iRuGPNZk0Iids0gtE962FdObnkcPgEMvBYWSLT5vRzlQGawM8mQKredhjui1eRZZ1UhEqYuHeQPdilKV9eZuMpMFCSai6iX7j5us4Q/s1600/eurusdh130+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfO30_DzznvnB5we3_FlOwqBbJzlovn-8-wGB35iRuGPNZk0Iids0gtE962FdObnkcPgEMvBYWSLT5vRzlQGawM8mQKredhjui1eRZZ1UhEqYuHeQPdilKV9eZuMpMFCSai6iX7j5us4Q/s320/eurusdh130+aug.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Opening at 133840, EU started the week extending the consolidation formed from the last New York session. Moving consistently within this range, early attempts to break lower eventually led to EU moving slightly lower to around 133680 until the end of the trading day. This continued until </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">the 27th August, when </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">EU travelled back towards 133700 followed by another re-attempt back towards 134, forming a pinbar upon reaching 133902. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Once again </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"> upon the approach of the 134 level, a surge of selling saw </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">EU break lower </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">taking price from a </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">high of 133863 to a low of 133219. Settling now at the lows, EU waited briefly </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">for direction before a sudden thrust of bullish momentum reversed the </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">direction </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">back to a high of 133971 closing at 133839. This reluctance to fall was re</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">presented by price sustained now at the highs in a tight range between 133</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">790 – 133979 that continued into the 28th Aug. However, this did not last much longer when the rane finally broke leading EU down to </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"> 133360 just under the previous day’s high (133425). Finding brief support at this level, another attempt higher was made reaching 133727.</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"> However this was followed with sellers who upon spotting a short opportunity took advantage, </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">printing a significant bearish marobuzu (low of 133047), which finally retraced back to the </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">133133 (76%). </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">EU </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">consolidated within this top range of 133133 – 133425 (76% and 100%) in preparation for a move lower which saw EU </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">descend down in a steep bearish ladder back below 133 resting at 13</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2670 (DP). This then led to a gradual </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">move lower, breaking 132480(23%) and </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">reaching a low of 132188 (previous day’s low). From here, EU remained at the </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">lows in consolidation before </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">retracing back to 23% where it sustained until the 30<sup>th</sup> August. Now trading at the lower end of recent price action, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">EU finally broke lower to 131727 breaching (DS1). </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Supported at this level, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">EU retraced back towards 132188 (previous day’s low), closing the New York session at 132179.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In line with risk aversion and other factors, EU's price movement has now moved away from the excitement experienced in the previous week upon the news that Europe was stabilising and now out of a recession. It does seem that the move reflected preliminary optimism as sellers still remained poised at the high levels, containing EU from progessing above 134531 (recent high). I</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">nstead these sell actions at the higher levels, have confirmed tops,which have been more helpful in contributing to a </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">clearer picture of market sentiment and potential direction in </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the short-term. Much like the other </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">advanced economies, economic data will be key in assertaining a true indication of their economic position. </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Therefore, continued reliance on </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">positive economic data figures are still in focus as Europe continues to look for signs of improvement.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Much of EU’s move in the last week has been largely contributed by the global concerns surrounding Syria which has had a negative effect on the financial markets along with the political uncertainty in Italy. </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, interesting observations in regards to </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">market sentiment can be ascertained by its reaction to its own domestic data. When positive figures start to have little or no effect, this </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">in itself may suggest signs of </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">exhaustion finally starting to set in as we retrace from the highs with lower targets now within view.<br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the 4 hour chart, a top on the 20th August is now </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">clearly identified. The high of 134514 achieved by a </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">gallant effort to reach highs and touch 134. Until price breaks above 134500, uncertainty in regards to pushing EU higher and cap EU within the current range. This is reflected in the formation of the </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">inverted pinbar, that if respected will see EU contained within this high and propell south holding a different agenda in hand. </span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"></span><br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">In the immediate view, what we will </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">need to see is the next movement following the pinbar supporting DS1. A move higher will see 132450 (DP) as the next containment level, however moving further north will set sights upon 13316 (DR1) and then 134125 (DR2). However a break below this pinbar will then expose EU to 131441 (DS1) , followed by 130718 (DS2) and then 129740 (DS3).</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In regards to economic data, it was a week of mixed figures which included some following figures: </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">German IFO Current Assessment (Aug) 112 vs. 110 Business Climate 107.5 vs. 107, Spanish GDP -1.6% vs. -1.7%, Consumer Confidence (Aug) -16 vv -16.5. However this was offset with poor results suchas German CPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.5% vs. 1.7% and German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug) 1.6% vs. 1.7%. This week will see the announcement of the interest rate decision by the ECB as well as their Monetary Policy Statement. Both events, holding great potential being the catalyst/s to move EU beyond its parameters.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrZ7ETpclRMfE1PgT7dBJkhEJlsH-qo004SkQO2G3YxRELyzfO0JgI-cS3e_4HKb143stubYQSx1zaSgDcLiPrvEa4vogOO6RXP91fhK6YI74LPn-HcTs4RsmbzU2koJZoYJwLrXnbqos/s1600/audusdh1+30+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrZ7ETpclRMfE1PgT7dBJkhEJlsH-qo004SkQO2G3YxRELyzfO0JgI-cS3e_4HKb143stubYQSx1zaSgDcLiPrvEa4vogOO6RXP91fhK6YI74LPn-HcTs4RsmbzU2koJZoYJwLrXnbqos/s320/audusdh1+30+aug.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Opening the week at 90328, AU also continued the consolidation formed after the late bullish breakout last week during the New York session. With an early attempt to test lower 90, AU first reached 90160 before bouncing back up to 90423 in the next three candles. However, upon rejection, AU then retreated back down to 90242 in the next candle followed by a further decline to 90067. Embarking back in familiar territory, the close approach of the 90 s</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">aw this level once again respected, sending AU immediately higher to 90695 with the next candle. However, this sudden bullish surge was once again </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">short-lived with sellers poised towards the 91 resistance level, pushing </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AU back down to a low of 90182 before breaking lower to 90093. </span></span></div>
<br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A new wave of selling then </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">stepped in upon re-visiting this area, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> printing a prominent bearish breakout candle (high of 90097 and low of 89764) that followed with a pause around 89632 (76%), eventually giving way to price while </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">finding support around 89391 (DP). Forming a series of pinbars, AU then attempted to break higher, managing to reach a high of 89873 which unfortunately failed to hold but </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">instead resulting in the formation of an </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> inverted pinbar. This then followed with another attempt to follow through, which instead saw price drop to a low of 89399, closing the candle at 89640. However, quite determined, this paved the way for an attempt higher reaching 89959. This level met with </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">rejection with which then saw</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> AU proceed in a steady decline south, pausing once again at DP before breaking lower, to </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">test </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">near 89 at 89126. </span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Price then contined to </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">consolidate around 89003 (DS1), touching a low of 88920, however, reluctant to follow through, AU instead reversed upon the re-visit to the 89 price level, displaying a surge of buying with the next candle (low of 88999 and high of 89456). This led to a further retracement higher, pausing first around DP and then through to 89632 (76%). However the 76% level remained well </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">protected and upon breaching this level, </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">saw sellers step in to resume the bearish trend, printing an inverted pinbar. However this rejected with the next candle which saw AU fail to follow through but reach higher to test </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">89780, the exact 100% level. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now satisfied, AU reversed back lower first to 89212, which showed great effort to hold at this level, but prompted a further move down taking another </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">shot at 89, reaching a low of 89011. Cl</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ear hesitation surrounded </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this new low which saw AU reverse sharply </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> upon the formation of a pinbar at 89011. Once back at this level, AU </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">moved in to a short consolidation before breaking back down to DS1 where AU settled in the last few hours of trade, closing at 88969.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The fact that AU ended the week around DR3 does lend probably cause to expecting some sort of retracement if not a nice fall from the high 80s and 90 region. However, price is finding its feet momentarily and unlike previous instances where we have seen a consistent fall from the top to the bottom, last week did show an </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> effort to maintain its position around </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">90, which has been a significant level in recent weeks. Interestingly,</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> price retracements have also </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">aligned and reacted nicely with pre-established </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">levels. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br />
In regards to data, the </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">week was once again quite </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">light, although there were a couple of positive figures released including Private Capital Expenditure (Q2) which beat expectations 4.0% vs 0.2% and Private SectorCredit (YoY) showing an improvement from 3.1% to 2.2%. In the commodity markets, base metal prices showed an improvement sparked by a positive turn in economic news. Meanwhile, improvements in the Chinese economy have now pointed to early signs of stabilis</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ing, though this does not completely rule out the possibility of the economy experiencing further slowing down the track. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">expected that the metal markets will be in surplus later in 2013, due to a reduction in demand. However, this will be impacted by any positive economic data released by the major economies. Tuesday brings into focus the interest rate decision to be announced by the RBA. This may be the catalyst to set AU on its path to continuation or correction. Should the rate remain unchanged, this may strengthen the possibility of a rate cut in Nov which currently is supported by speculation.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Moving back to the charts, fo</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">llowing the break from top consolidation and the first instance of rejection presented on the 27th August, AU has </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">kept movement contained between DS1 (under 89003) and 98780 (100%), which on the higher time frames shows AU in preparation for an extension lower to come. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">wider parameters for AU, 90368 (DS3) should cap AU from the top and moving below that 90008 (DR2). However, containment below 89418 (76%) will keep AU within a more immediate bearish view. In light of a continuation from current levels, 89072 (23%) should be the level to watch as possible resistance up to 89210. A rejection from this level will see AU target 88646 (DS1) followed by 88340 (DS2) and then 87788 (DR3). If AI breaks above top resistance upon market reaction to the pending Interest Rate decision, this will extend the correction further north. </span></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk7qEShjqPVBv3Wb7A6mwhESvZYHdiUIjBRck3R4UI9OcDwCtOLDkUcUEDaL-489JhHRa9ujFaawO0gZu6uhQ38b8HGoENbr8ZCFhMCntBj9nnfg7ZxSTRYG_cA9Y4BAPnA2RAd64QTPc/s1600/usdjpyh1+30+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk7qEShjqPVBv3Wb7A6mwhESvZYHdiUIjBRck3R4UI9OcDwCtOLDkUcUEDaL-489JhHRa9ujFaawO0gZu6uhQ38b8HGoENbr8ZCFhMCntBj9nnfg7ZxSTRYG_cA9Y4BAPnA2RAd64QTPc/s320/usdjpyh1+30+aug.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Price movement for UJ was rather interesting last week. Opening the week at 98560, UJ commenced the week resuming in consolidation just above the previous 76% level between a range of 98555 and 98788 u</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ntil the 27th August. Upon breaking </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">lower, first support was found at </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 98262 (the new 76% level),giving way to a steep fall to a low of 96808. </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finding support around 97008 (DS2), UJ retraced back to 97443 (previous day's low), where it paused briefly before continuing its journey north stopping next at 97696 (23%). UJ consolidated here for a little while longer before moving slightly higher to 97899 just breaching 97853 (38%), where another attempt to reverse lower was caught at upon price once again reaching the previous day's low. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
The failure to follow through then led to a bullish charge that saw UJ break higher in 4 consecutive candles from a low of 97443 (previous day's low) to a high of 98187, just breaching DP. Resting here briefly UJ then broke higher reaching 98515 (previous day's high) where it stayed, re-testing this price level twice before retracing back to 76%. This saw momentary reluctance to break lower in the form of an attempt to protect the 76% level, however the print of an inverted pinbar within the range led to UJ gradually move towards DP and attempt a move south, leading to the formation of a lower wick upon touching 97878 (just above 38%). This rejection then led to UJ moving back towards 76% and containing itself within a range between DP and 76% (98097 - 98262), closing the New York session at 98147.<br />
</span></span><class sonormal=""><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In regards to economic data, the US did produce some positive figures among the data released starting with the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Aug) beating expectations at 5 vs. 4 , while Consumer Confidence (Aug) also showed an improvement with 81.5 vs. 80.3. However, this did very little to inspire UJ at the beginning of week, which saw other events such as the situation in Syria take precedent in regards to focus. However, UJ soon saw a shift in direction with price moving away from DS2 low and back north. This was further supported by the surprising positive figure of 2.5% vs 1.1% that saved UJ from another attempt lower, boosting UJ back towards 76%. Japan's figures were also general positive with the Purchasing Manager Index 52.2 vs. 50, Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 1.6% vs. previous -4.6% and 7, National CPI (YoY) (Jul) 0.7% vs. previous 0.2%, however this failed to move the Yen significantly. Moving into September now also puts US tapering back in the spotlight with eyes on the USD. </span></class></div>
</div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Looking at the 4 hour chart, UJ closed the week sitting on DP, bringing the pair back into the range. So far, 95803 (WS2) which was reached on the 8th of August still stands as the low and until today still remains in place as support. On the other side of the coin, the 100 </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">price point currently sits as top resistance within a short-term view. However, more interesting is the position of the current price which falls in alignment with the peak formation on the 15th August. So far UJ has not yet succeeded in falling from current levels and in favour of a more probable scenario of risk aversion combined with the upcoming US tapering, there is a chance that UJ may look to reject at a higher level. The daily chart still shows UJ caught in a consolidation which sees UJ taking a break from the prevailing uptrend. However a continuation would only be reflected upon a positive break above 100 followed by a re-test of the103 area. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the more immediate time frames, keeping parameters between 95 and 100 seem more realistic. That is, a target south upon a break of 98017 (23%) with the first target at 97414 (DS1), followed by 96963 (DS2), 96423 (DS3) and below that to 95897 (MS1) and then 95835 (WS2).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span>LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-53518105265687630102013-09-01T21:26:00.006-07:002013-10-09T06:56:59.921-07:00Trade Recommendations: WC 2 September 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7YDhTLyxCtV7OZt2-CgKaS-7Un0Vsm-FUs3KzrZTdTYC8posM5uRyMeaTlDm5WKwtMs7yCMUWLU9qfNI-abgGQAUCa_THYh9o9FhQdwVyX4Nw8uLGKpE_BXCLuz-T_WFcBM1q1z8fhh8/s1600/gbpusd+1+sept+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7YDhTLyxCtV7OZt2-CgKaS-7Un0Vsm-FUs3KzrZTdTYC8posM5uRyMeaTlDm5WKwtMs7yCMUWLU9qfNI-abgGQAUCa_THYh9o9FhQdwVyX4Nw8uLGKpE_BXCLuz-T_WFcBM1q1z8fhh8/s320/gbpusd+1+sept+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The break of the top consolidation formed last week opened the path to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>test lower while the bearish 3 candle move<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>from 155743 to 0155044 demonstrated its strength upon breaking DR1 straight to DP where it found temporary relief.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pinbar (low of 154813) printed on the 27th August prompted GU to test higher which upon reaching 100% rejected accordingly. This indicated that bearish sentiment was in play and that a re-test of DP would determine whether GU would aim for lower targets. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 1pt solid black; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: black black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">155118</span></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What to look for:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span><br />
<strong>BUY:</strong> On break above 155118<br />
<strong>SELL:</strong> On bbreak below 15503<br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Having rejected 154262, GU managed to settle back above 155. If GU breaks higher, this will bring the top targets into view. However movement south will then see 155022 (DP) as the next support level. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Upon renewed weakness, a break of DP will expose the lower targets.<br />
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 155380,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>T2: 155760, T3: 156270<br />
<o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 154530, T2: 154160, T3: 153690<br />
<o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">BOE Interest Rate Decision, BOE Asset Purchase Facility (Sept 5), Consumer Inflation Expectations, GDP Estimate (Sept 6)<br />
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span><br />
<hr />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2 style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9P42wW7ps0Y-A4SZv5VRYOgSZqGWBXO8-9ngX93fAnOYvdVmPRi61oFDzH23nlaaPA903aSVBWPZCdURgfMcP1lg5g-emXanDlkAz-pexZiJP13ZTzvsX8nRN9WFINHCLGViKi2YGUkM/s1600/eurusd+1+sept+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9P42wW7ps0Y-A4SZv5VRYOgSZqGWBXO8-9ngX93fAnOYvdVmPRi61oFDzH23nlaaPA903aSVBWPZCdURgfMcP1lg5g-emXanDlkAz-pexZiJP13ZTzvsX8nRN9WFINHCLGViKi2YGUkM/s320/eurusd+1+sept+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg15zJl6nlfWHvud5AmvJ6W9N987GSk1PR7qSFoSzm8W44xbvGpSGCr7-NcB24UJUSjeu9Lp6QkWkxXt6JMspKCCSfLeLaku1haGnRt0jC_gDwXOXo6KYiJSrNBO_IxeVZwNX5kq41gT58/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a><br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Continuing from the inverted hammer printed on the 20th Aug, EU finally broke lower from the top range, leading to a slide down to last week's DS1. Printing a pinbar at this low has brought into focus the possibility of a retracement higher first before another attempt south. A break of the previous day's low (131727) will support a continuation lower.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border: 1pt solid black; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: black black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">132350<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What to look for:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br />
</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><strong>BUY:</strong> On break above 132350<br />
<strong>SELL:</strong> On break below 131920<br />
<br />
A break above DP will bring the higher targets into view. However containment under this level will represent a bearish continuation with movement back towards 132. A further decline from here will expose the lower targets.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
</div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 133094,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>T2: 134083, T3: 134781<br />
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 131432, T2: 130680, T3: 129720<br />
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">GDP figures (Sept 4),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ECB Interest Rate, ECB Statement (Sept 5)<br />
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2 style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmtjQyN3VDnPboHdHmMaYdyFArh9-JNwAFrF4wjqquVvBf3thx3hUSDT7D6sNyfTe4TBb4QvquTKBDFKo1tHvKagpqPDnOEZsT_krTTyzwTl33Grm4uUGCi8lSOg6LOP2EeYWM_BgrSN0/s1600/audusd+1+sept.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmtjQyN3VDnPboHdHmMaYdyFArh9-JNwAFrF4wjqquVvBf3thx3hUSDT7D6sNyfTe4TBb4QvquTKBDFKo1tHvKagpqPDnOEZsT_krTTyzwTl33Grm4uUGCi8lSOg6LOP2EeYWM_BgrSN0/s320/audusd+1+sept.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AU has now managed to penetrate the 90 level, which has most recently acted as support, reviving AU from any attempted dips below this level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the latest NY close under 90, this has now re-adjusted the levels placing AU well within the reach of the high 80s once again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given its <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>strong <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a bearish sentiment, the re-visitation of these lows may potentially open the doors to a continuation lower. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border: 1pt solid black; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: black black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">89418<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What to look for:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><strong>BUY:</strong> On break above 89418<br />
<strong>SELL:</strong> On break below 89072<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Look for a break above 89418 to consider the higher targets. A break below 76% will see the next support level at 89183 (DP). </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A break below DP will bring the lower levels in view with a possible test of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> the </span>high 87 region to 88 as a potential <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>intra-day bottom. </span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 89492,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>T2: 90010, T3: 90280<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 88643, T2: 88335, T3: 87767<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td> <td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">RBA Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement (Sept 3), GDP figures (Sept 4)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfQ1Omn4zfoZJHGeP-PF-B7EOqR8MtGr7uhPnxKosXEcX1r0ioSfLCZhvE2WfiwpQWCUdffmfr9UpQ4IDdqdBdjtMbq1HTFpGcQk5gAAwbgyt6Dt7Revi3RRKnKQom-6ZzyjlNhTU-9hY/s1600/usdjpy+1+sept+ts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfQ1Omn4zfoZJHGeP-PF-B7EOqR8MtGr7uhPnxKosXEcX1r0ioSfLCZhvE2WfiwpQWCUdffmfr9UpQ4IDdqdBdjtMbq1HTFpGcQk5gAAwbgyt6Dt7Revi3RRKnKQom-6ZzyjlNhTU-9hY/s320/usdjpy+1+sept+ts.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was a nice turn for UJ who started the week set to "sell mode" but shifted <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>gears mid week, ending with a reversal higher with price falling back within <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>range. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The failure to continue its bearish descent does now bring into contention at least a retracement higher before another attempt lower.</span> </span> </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: currentColor; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 1pt solid black; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Level to Watch:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: black black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">99330</span></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What to look for:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><strong>BUY:</strong> On break above 98330<br />
<strong>SELL:</strong> On break below 98017<br />
<br />
Should price hold above 98013 (DP), look for 98330 (76%)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>to either contain price or break above.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>If UJ breaks above 98330, this will bring the higher targets into view. However a break back below DP will expose the lower targets.</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bullish Levels:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 133094,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>T2: 134083, T3: 134781<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bearish Levels<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">T1: 131432, T2: 130680, T3: 129720<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 133pt;" valign="top" width="177"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Potential Catalysts:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) black black rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: 0px 1pt 1pt 0px; mso-border-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .5pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 345.8pt;" valign="top" width="461"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">GDP figures (Sept 4),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>ECB Interest Rate, ECB Statement (Sept 5) NFP (Sept 6)<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h2 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Times New Roman;"></span></span><br />
<span style="background: white; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">* Please note that all trade set ups provided in this post are suggestions only and no responsibility will be taken for any loss of money in the FX markets. If you have any feedback or comments, please feel free to leave a comment or email </span><a href="mailto:liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">liveforextradingmarketanalysis@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-size: xx-small;">..</span></span></div>
<br />LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-37449210133823790062013-08-25T19:54:00.004-07:002013-10-09T06:49:25.180-07:00Market Overview: Week Ending 25 August 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi06ivXze4sRYkxqQXii2k9eHkH7H3hYUMmzxZy024IQJnFa5hJhG0VnaaNOsYhN_zVP2D1_9qMQsbqFU_VBWNGh9erGzcz5UOgDCVkIj-7r_Y-RiPnSfHwl1arZsIHx8_6CwCduGqY_-o/s1600/gbpusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi06ivXze4sRYkxqQXii2k9eHkH7H3hYUMmzxZy024IQJnFa5hJhG0VnaaNOsYhN_zVP2D1_9qMQsbqFU_VBWNGh9erGzcz5UOgDCVkIj-7r_Y-RiPnSfHwl1arZsIHx8_6CwCduGqY_-o/s320/gbpusdh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GU has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the month propelled by strong domestic data in conjunction with USD weakness. This has resulted in a significant bullish move which has seen GU move up over 5c over the course of this month. With current uncertainty revolving around the Pound and the US dollar this, it is possible that we may see an extension of the decline that commenced towards the end of the last last week's NY session. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If GU is looking at a continuation lower, the first support level would lie at 155431 (DS1) followed by 154999 (DS2). However should GU fall though both support levels, then a move lower to 154405 (DS3) will come into view. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alternatively, a break higher will see a move back to 156015 (DP) which will be the next level to watch. A further break above this level will see immediate resistance lie at 156404 (76%) which may contain GU within a bearish continuation trend. However, breaking 76% will promote further movement north, bringing the following targets into contention: 156441(DR1) followed by a re-test of 15706(DR2). If GU successfully breaks above 157, the next target will be 157447(DR3).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></span> <br />
<h2 style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg15zJl6nlfWHvud5AmvJ6W9N987GSk1PR7qSFoSzm8W44xbvGpSGCr7-NcB24UJUSjeu9Lp6QkWkxXt6JMspKCCSfLeLaku1haGnRt0jC_gDwXOXo6KYiJSrNBO_IxeVZwNX5kq41gT58/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg15zJl6nlfWHvud5AmvJ6W9N987GSk1PR7qSFoSzm8W44xbvGpSGCr7-NcB24UJUSjeu9Lp6QkWkxXt6JMspKCCSfLeLaku1haGnRt0jC_gDwXOXo6KYiJSrNBO_IxeVZwNX5kq41gT58/s320/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Similar to the Pound, the Euro ended the week sitting at the top of its range reaching a high of 134514 which surpassed the high of the most recent previous peak at 134148. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From its current position of 133764, a continuation north will see the next target at 134 – 134146 (DR1) followed by 134610 (DR2). If EU breaks above 134610, a move towards 134830 will be a top level to watch for in regards to intra-day top resistance. However should it continue with its retracement south from last week, this will see movement back to 133549(76%) for support. If supported at 76%, this will keep EU within the scope of a bullish sentiment. Alternatively, a break lower from here will see 133400 (DP) re-tested once again for support. Breaking DP will promote further movement south while also confirming a rejection of the 134 region. From here the next support levels below DP lie at 133263 (33%) followed by 13315 (23%). A fall through 23% will expose greater decline with targets at 133098(DS1), followed by 132640(DS2) and then 132340(DS3).</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<h2 style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEQMlMBwUburpqnj48e46qJtMtGr1yiVsjXuIyRThzPzTT7U_Q_HbV1Q6Va7GMEMZmFEZcu7WyZlkC45oLLy5YgwPKfVe8IbRHTXISgj3MSVTRSCF2hYB1e5ddrE0PVUdYxgLxYT6sWu0/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEQMlMBwUburpqnj48e46qJtMtGr1yiVsjXuIyRThzPzTT7U_Q_HbV1Q6Va7GMEMZmFEZcu7WyZlkC45oLLy5YgwPKfVe8IbRHTXISgj3MSVTRSCF2hYB1e5ddrE0PVUdYxgLxYT6sWu0/s320/audusdh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike the other majors against the USD, AU commenced a decline from the start of the week to the very end, without much relief. When looking at the 4 hour chart, the high of 92326(19th Aug) aligns closely with the high of 92204 (12th Aug) confirming a double top upon the break of 91013(DR2). Last week, AU closed the last NY session positioned around 76% and should 90309(76%) succeed in containing AU within its prominent bearish trend, a move back towards 90 (strong psychological support level) will be next in sight. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AU has already broken this level recently, which promoted a re-test of the mid 89 region once again. If AU manages another successful attempt to break 90 and then then 89416(DS1), the next target lower will be 88784. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Breaking both support levels, a re-test of the low made on the 2nd Aug 88473 will be the next target. This will be followed by a further attempt to reach a new low below 88, with 87585(WS2) as a supported bottom.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<h2 style="text-align: start;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_1EgZjldQdIfPR_E2DL-M49EYVzlTAXECw4ehB-TtkvUi59hPjSP_C8UBw4pTQmPkg5SUyZkBRd8yo01zg2wvl3xNhvyWjmnvCDMEjw_yD4GSDZLyTPvINhpptGtL3U0Ih81WuHj6UUI/s1600/usdjpyh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_1EgZjldQdIfPR_E2DL-M49EYVzlTAXECw4ehB-TtkvUi59hPjSP_C8UBw4pTQmPkg5SUyZkBRd8yo01zg2wvl3xNhvyWjmnvCDMEjw_yD4GSDZLyTPvINhpptGtL3U0Ih81WuHj6UUI/s320/usdjpyh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">UJ ended the week retracing from the recent high above 99 upon weaker US New Home Sales figures. This left UJ sitting just above DP which still places the pair within the parameters of a continuation of the uptrend formed last week. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Within the immediate view, a retracement back to 98440(DP) can be seen as a potential support level which may send UJ back north towards resistance at 98964(76%). Should this level beak higher, a target of 991527 will be opened followed by 99589(DR2).However, caution is advised upon any move higher towards 99 -100 as this area may be met with sellers determined to restrain UJ from making any significant progress north. Therefore my bias for this pair would be to in favour of seeking shorting opportunities upon resistance/rejection at higher key levels. Alternatively, a break lower near current levels (from DP) will see movement south with the 97 region within view. The first target sits at 97928(DS1) followed by 97109(DS2) and then 96676(DS3).</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<br />LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-42210865698356574402013-08-25T07:44:00.000-07:002013-10-09T06:57:57.587-07:00Market Analysis: Week Ending 25 August 2013<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last week saw mixed movement across the majors as GU and EU continued with their quest to reach new highs while AU continued in the opposite direction, re-visiting lower levels upon prevailing bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, US yields rose after the release of the FOMC Minutes providing strength to UJ and to the USD. This also saw a rise in the DXY (dollar index) as September draws closer bringing "US tapering" into the spotlight upon speculation that US Fed plans to commence tapering next month. This week sees the release of important economic figures for the Euro, USD and Yen accompanied by speeches from both the Carney (BOE) and Bullard (US Fed). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAl4Dft56JFuA1ZfELUkg2lZdEJsWLEkAWTzrxgi0ax9Fnd8j9fgfWYaEer712b6Lzm1rEsI0xWSf_WUQUWvC2Z9V_LWgzNUawnR16pcIKUV_s__qSrn-PtV_D-mdVJYWydPGj1tWFZhk/s1600/gbpusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAl4Dft56JFuA1ZfELUkg2lZdEJsWLEkAWTzrxgi0ax9Fnd8j9fgfWYaEer712b6Lzm1rEsI0xWSf_WUQUWvC2Z9V_LWgzNUawnR16pcIKUV_s__qSrn-PtV_D-mdVJYWydPGj1tWFZhk/s320/gbpusdh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Opening the Asia session at 156159, GU commenced the session moving within a range between 156125 - 156346 before forming a pinbar that led to a break higher reaching 156729 within the next 4 candles. This immediately followed with a retracement to 156353, prompting another attempt higher, this time reaching 156706 before once again stepping back. Finding support slightly higher, GU then proceeded to range around 156469 which provided a platform for GU’s next agenda - to test 157. However, though very close, GU only managed to reach 156957 before sellers poised under 157 stepped in pushing GU back down to 156639 in one bearish candle. From here we saw a struggle for dominance of direction as buyers and sellers moved price around within the constraint of a 40 pip range just before an attempt to 157 was once again made and this breached with a new high of 157168. This level then saw an influx of sellers gain control on the 21<sup>st</sup> Aug, pushing GU down in a bearish 5 candle move to 156144 (just above DP) before finding support. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once at this lower level, GU proceeded to attempt a continuation south breaking down to 155874 (23%) where support was found leading to further consolidation throughout the 22<sup>nd</sup> Aug between 15135(DP) and 15562(previous day low), finding support at 155866(23%). GU remained within the range from the NY session into the beginning of the 23<sup>rd</sup> Aug. From here GU then broke higher out of this range in one bullish candle (low of 15580 and high of 156370) reaching 156370(76%) before facing rejection. This led to a fall back to yesterday’s low around 155626 with an extended target of DS1 touching 155386 which became the low of the NY session. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As expected, this new low attracted buyers forming a bullish marubozu candle (low of 155421 and high of 155961) which pushed GU back towards 157. However, once again this level met with immediately resistance, with sellers pushing GU back down in a bearish 3 candle move from 156336 to 155462. Price continued to range here momentarily before pushing back higher to 23% where it once again rejected sending GU back to yesterday’s low and closing the last NY session with a bearish marubozu candle (high of 155813 and low of 155509) at 155509.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wednesday 21st Aug saw the release of a couple of economic figures including the Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jul), producing a result of £-1.635B vs the forecasted £-4.65, while CBI Industrial Trends Survey represented more optimism with an improved figure of 0 vs -8 which was the consensus. Following the release of data results, GU spike, reaching a high of 157168 before following with a sharp break lower, falling from great heights back to 155874 where it then paused. The economic data results by itself were not the major catalyst in promoting such a move on its own, but rather the release of the FOMC minutes in favour of the USD.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently the Pound sits in a slightly cautious position as investors remain concerned over any proposed action or effort to contain the recent rise in market interest rates which have risen since Carney's last speech. The rise in yields which in turn increased the cost of government borrowing, has also seen 5 year swaps rise from 1.53% to 1.75%. It is generally expected that in his speech due this week, Carney will re-focus on "forward guidance" and his commitment to keep interest rates low. Along with the pending GDP figures due later in the week, GU may choose to stay within a consolidation or embark on a short trek lower in anticipation of the upcoming events.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So far, GU has experienced a significant fall to a low of 155635 which after a period of consolidation led to a swift bullish move to a high of 156370 on the 23rd Aug in line with positive GDP figures and assisted by the output of weak data figures for US New Home Sales. However, the boost did very little to instill further momentary confidence in the Pound, which instead ending the week with investors closing out positions before the weekend ahead of this week’s events.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the 4 hour chart, it can be seen that GU has been in an uptrend from 151009, since the beginning of the month and has been supported by strong domestic data in conjunction with USD weakness, resulting in this strong bullish move over the course of the month. As we approach the end of August, GU has retraced from the high of 156900, moving to the mid 155 range. This level aligns with the top made on the 6th Aug and when looking at GU on a daily chart, it shows price in the midst of a 3rd peak which also may potentially also present as a double top should GU fall further from current levels keeping 157168 as a top intact. Should this be the case, then it would line up with the high of 157507 made on the 17th June which became the turning point for GU leading to a dramatic fall down to the 148 range. Currently price still sits within its range on the higher time frames, however whether further strength is in store for GU, will be dependent on the continued output of strong domestic data, along with supporting statements from the BOE and/or further weakness in the USD.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given that we have retraced back to high key levels with another rejection at the high, it is very possible that we will see a further movement lower before we see another attempt to breach 157 again. Though, even with a retracement back to the 154 range, this will still keep GU within range and in contention of a move higher unless resistance is found lower. The next couple of weeks will play an important role in setting direction as "US tapering" becomes the focus for September. This could very well be the catalyst to drive the USD higher which in turn will have an impact on all majors and be the catalyst to finally break the range. Carney’s upcoming speech on the 28th Aug will also be loosely observed with particularly attention to any form of expansion upon points made in former speeches.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In light of the current uncertainty revolving around the Pound and the US dollar, this week could see an extension of the decline made towards the end of last week's NY session. If so, the first support level sit at 155431 (DS1) followed by 154999(DS2). Should both levels fail to support GU then a further move to 154405(DS3) will come into view. Alternatively, if GU continues range at current levels and break higher, then a move back to 156015(DP) will be the level watch in regards to a break. Resistance at 156404 (76%) should still contain GU within an immediate bearish continuation otherwise a break higher will see resistance at 156441(DR1) followed by a re-test of 15706(DR2). If GU is successful in breaking above 157 again, the next level to watch is 157447(DR3)</span></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s1600/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1FRxy4alZxXIOuOImGmPDAfdtNbZzSmqcuArl-epunPoMea7Jhuo3Wmgx1NPDr8YmiDVuahAeDf74We13Xd9wuiEDjiZcdjZQvaY_ZB_VSWpnFpMqnJgkw992MZShthKrMc9seg3s5IQ/s320/eurusdh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Commencing in mid range from the last NY session, EU broke higher to 133741 forming a top wick, closing the current candle at 133580. This followed with a move lower and ranging around 133417 before a struggle for direction which finally led to EU moving lower, forming a bullish pinbar with a low of 133230 and a high of 133471. This pinbar then led to a small bullish intra-day rally taking EU from 133414 to 134514, breaking 133549(76%) along the way to reaching DR3 with only a small pause at the previous day’s high 133764. </span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finding resistance at DR3, EU retraced slightly back towards 134, consolidating around 134180 ( under DR2) in preparation for a follow through lower with a complete retracement back to 133414 (around 61%) . This level interestingly also represents the point origin for the recent bullish move to the high above 134. EU ranged around current levels prior to printing a prominent bearish marubozu (low of 133066 and high of 133585) that extended the decline to a low of 132977, touching the previous day’s low. Forming a pinbar at this low, a bullish breakout candle followed (low of 133414 and high of 132514) leading to a move back to 133726(76%). From here, EU continued to range with indecision until eventually breaking higher to 134092. This was immediately met with sellers who took EU from the recent high to a small retracement back to 133726 (previous day’s high). Price remained around this level until the end of the NY session, closing at 133764.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />
</span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although the Euro did not have a full week containing significant data, there was the release of a series of positive data results such as the Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52 vs 50.8, Markit PMI Composite (Aug) 51.7 vs 50.9 and Markit Services PMI (Aug) 51 vs 50 which worked in favour of the Euro. The 20<sup>th</sup> Aug saw EU break out and move above 133730 reaching a high of 134514. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, this then followed with a gradual retracement from consolidation formed near the top. This then led to a smaller move lower in the earlier sessions on the 20th Aug and a minor reaction back to DP upon the release of the FOMC minutes reaching a low of 132977. From here, EU reversed back towards 133549 in line with 76% and was further propelled by the release of weaker US New Home Sales figures. The Euro then surged in one bullish move to a high of 134092 which then followed with a retracement back towards daily resistance 1 towards the end of the last session, closing under 134.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Similar to the Pound, the Euro also finished the week sitting at the top of its range having printed a high 134514 made on 20<sup>th</sup> Aug. Though with no major news events lined up this week aside from a few German economic figures, it is most likely that we will still continue to see EU move within familiar territory even with positive numbers. Any attempts to test higher will still hold appeal for sellers perched at the high key levels and this should continue to keep EU within the range. </span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Turning to the 4 hour chart, it can be seen that the recent print of a pinbar on the 22nd Aug shows a rejection of 132977 which has so far managed to keep EU above 133. However this range is still contained by the recent high of 134514 made on the 20th Aug. If bullish sentiment still prevails from the preliminary improvements in the European economy last week, an attempt back to 134 region may see re-test of the high or further ambition to create a new high, given an appropriate catalyst . As Monday does not hold any domestic data that will hold the power to propel such action, any weakness in the US data within the NY session may possibly be the instigator. However, containment within the range is still most likely with 132 as a possibility in the near future.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From EU’s current position of 133764, the next target is 134 - 134146(DR1) followed by 134610(DR23). If 134610 breaks then EU will look towards 135 with 134830 as a potential top resistance level, should EU manage to move this far north. However should EU resume from the retracement made towards the close of the NY session, then a move towards 133549(76%) will be the next support level to keep EU within bullish sentiment. A break of this level however, will see 133400 (DP) re-visited once again which may prompt further selling from this level. If DP does break, we will see EU continue south which will also confirm a rejection of the 134 region. The next support levels will then lie at 133263(33%) followed by 133154(23%). If EU breaks 23% then 133098(DS1) will be back in view followed by 132640(DS2) and then 132340(DS3).</span></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s1600/audusdh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQT_4epp35q1KVCqDA7auXrMoRzNY365WNeycJjx5sMeSyY-b3LBhPuUzkhXorX4yrvJ4ByBoqbBYOQeQYKQfnzAS666cH3-CUUvNCpBvzc5ORBw6B346LMl4gDFn4nAmmbkeEmPf8MPQ/s320/audusdh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
AU commenced the week opening at 91849 moving slightly higher to 92326 (just above MR1) where it remained until breaking lower in the form of a bearish marubozu (high of 92043 and high of 91500) towards the end of the day. From here, AU proceeded with a gradual decline starting with a pause around 91450 that followed with a continuation lower pausing again at 91090 just above DR2. Rejecting a minor attempt higher at 91319, AU followed with a sequence of small bearish candles taking AU to a low of 90265(just above 76%) which found support in the form of a pinbar.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This pinbar then led to a minor rally back towards 92 reaching a high of 90973 where it ranged until breaking lower on the 21<sup>st</sup> Aug to 90210. Price maintained briefly around this level before once again breaking to a new low of 90007(61%). However upon hitting close to 90 (7 pips), buyers instinctively stepped in taking AU back towards to 90426, the previous day’s high (100%). Further ranging continued at current levels until an attempt to break higher in the next candle was immediately met with rejection resulting in a high of 90572 followed by a move to a low of 89751, closing the candle at 90239 as a doji candle. This then followed with a bearish marubozu (high of 90270 and low of 89767) that extended the decline touching the previous day’s low of 89314. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Price then bounced back above 90 to 90013 ranging at the 61% level before moving back higher to 90164(76%) containing price between this range until it broke high to 90426(100%) where it momentarily paused before falling back towards 90001(61%). Price remained contained between 61% and the previous day’s high until the next day. The 22<sup>nd</sup> Aug then saw AU re-test 90426 and stay within this upper band until Friday 23<sup>rd</sup> Aug where price fell from 90321 to a low of 89865. AU continued to range around 89912 before breaking higher with a bullish marubozu (low of 89852 and high of 90496). This break of 90164(76%) followed with price suspended in range at the highs with a final close of 90260. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AUD was rather light with data during the week with only the RBA Meeting Minutes holding any sort of significant importance. The week started with a continuation of its decline from 92326 (high made on the 16th Aug) after completing a bullish run from 90578 (low made on 15th Aug). Once again the RBA Meeting Minutes released on the 20th Aug described the global economic environment and its impact that it has on the domestic economy. Also discussed were the economic conditions of Australia’s trading partners such as China who has displayed growth but still under par from the expected 7.5% set for 2013. On the domestic front, it was mentioned that economic activity still requires improvement although exports have risen in line with an increase in mining investment. Commodities experienced a fall though demand for iron-ore still remained in place. Underlying this however is still the prevailing concern for the mining sector which still faces the possibility of a further decline over time. Therefore given the current domestic picture along with global factors, the outlook is still somewhat soft.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In regards to the domestic currency, of particular importance was the mention of the AUD still being perceived as "high" which as mentioned previously still reflects the encouragement of a further decline to help "re-balance" the domestic economy. Further easing of Monetary Policy still remains as an option while the implementation of further cash rate cuts still sits on the table. However any adjustments will be dependent on the extent to which a currency depreciation has provided assistance resulting in positive outcomes , alongside other economic indicators.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still contained within a range, AU continues to move within its parameters unable to break higher or lower. Though the RBA Meeting Minutes did not provide any sort of catalyst to inspire a significant move to break AU out of its current range, the Meeting Minutes did confirm the validity for the AUD's strong bearish tone, providing an incentive to maintain the ongoing pattern of selling upon retracements and higher key levels. Prior to the RBA Meeting Minutes, AU proceeded with a cautious move north from a low of 90265, reaching 90969, where it consolidated briefly before proceeding with this decline. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The re-confirmation of the weakness in the AUD, prompted a move back towards the lower 90 range where it remained until the 21st Aug. Along with the other majors, AU also reacted to the FOMC Meeting Minutes on the 21st Aug which saw AU reach a high of 90572, followed by an accelerated fall to a low of 89314, breaking the 90 psychological price level to re-rest the lows. From here, AU once again found its way back towards 90 which followed with a consolidation and attempts to break higher which in each instance resulted in containment within the consolidation range between 89890 (around DP) and 90426 (yesterday's high). The weak US figures released in the NY session prompted a move back to a high of 90496 from DP and price sustained above 90 (psychological support level) into the close of the session.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When looking at the 4 hour chart the high of 92326 made on the 19th Aug aligns with the high of 92204 made on the 12th Aug confirming a double top by the break of 91013(DR2). Currently AU sits around 76% which can be perceived as an important level for determining its immediate direction. Should this level (90309) succeed in containing AU, then AU will move back lower towards 90, a strong psychological support level. Recently AU broke this level re-testing the mid 89 region and should AU once again break 90 and then re-visit the mid 89 region, then the next target will be 88784, should 89416(DS1) fail to support AU. Following this, a re-test of the low made on the 2nd Aug 88473 will be the next target and then an attempt at a new low breaking 88 to test 87 with a low of 87585(WS2). However,should AU find strength from its counterparts, a move back towards 92 and higher is still within reach.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<hr />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4Sc6SeY5KPZiX9x-0E4TF1Hga3Rj54Bk7tulb9nxuZVf96qlErfep9ZKuasnT0LPLReJ6ylGPO_h-wsvSHDZZPqh2KpPmh67oO7EU8dLgY3TMxL_wzxD8LzaMJPUoibZSVuRqHG2xrIg/s1600/usdjpyh1+25+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4Sc6SeY5KPZiX9x-0E4TF1Hga3Rj54Bk7tulb9nxuZVf96qlErfep9ZKuasnT0LPLReJ6ylGPO_h-wsvSHDZZPqh2KpPmh67oO7EU8dLgY3TMxL_wzxD8LzaMJPUoibZSVuRqHG2xrIg/s320/usdjpyh1+25+aug.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">UJ opened the week at 97606 continuing the retracement from 97050 made on the 16<sup>th </sup>Aug, reaching a high of 98118 (above 38%). Sustained at this level briefly, UJ then broke lower printing a bearish marubozu candle(high of 97967 and low of 97633). This followed with a further decline to 97467 which found support spring UJ back to a high of 97857 which once again was met with rejection. This led to a decline reaching a low of 96970 on the 20th Aug and followed with ranging at this level until a pinbar tested a low of 96905 which paved the way for an impressive bullish rally commencing from the 20th Aug to the last session on the 23rd Aug. This rally saw UJ move from a low of 96905 to a high of 99129 until the end of the week. Once DR1 was reached on the 22nd Aug, UJ remained at this level, supporting al attempts to fall which includes a low of 98731 within this range. The week ended with UJ breaking the top range with a significant bearish marubozu (high of 98997 and low of 98386) which then followed with a minor retracement back 98694 where UJ closed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There was not much data due this week for the Yen, however economic figures that were released did very little to support the currency. Some figures include the Leading Economic Index which came in weaker at 107.2 vs the previous figure 110.7 and the All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Jun) which released -0.6% vs the expected -0.5%. Later in the week, Foreign Bond Investment resulted in ¥903.8B vs ¥1,625.2B followed by Foreign Investments in Stocks which came in at ¥47.9B vs the previous figure ¥148.5B. Unlike the majors who dropped in response to the FOMC minutes, UJ continued north from the pinbar printed on the 20th Aug. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With no real strength in economic data to support the Yen, the only other catalyst were movements in the Nikkei. However, any favourable outcome in US data only helped with maintaining strength gained from the rise in treasury yields after the FOMC minutes. Though this saw a short decline in the majors against the USD, UJ remained well intact. The 22nd Aug saw some selling in response to the weak US initial Jobless Claims (336k vs 322k), however this was not enough to overturn the recent strength obtained the day before and was quickly was overshadowed by positive figures released for Market Manufacturing PMI and the CB Leading Indicator which assisted in UJ finding its feet to continue higher to 99.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last minutes released by BOJ saw improvements towards domestic economic stability which was further supported in the Jackson Hole Symposium, where BOJ governor Kuroda confirmed that their asset purchasing program initiated earlier in the year has so far been effective with targeting their problem with deflation. Given this, there is still scope for the Yen to gain strength especially when momentum is no longer fuelled by the focus on US tapering which may see a favour in risk start to subside.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the charts, UJ ended the week retracing from the high upon the US New Home Sales figures which came in weaker at 0.394M vs an expected rise of 0.485M from the previous figure of 0.455M. Currently UJ sits just above DP however still remains in line with continuing its uptrend. A fall back to 98440(DP) could hold as support which will see UJ move back towards resistance at 98964(76%). If this level is broken, then a target to 991527 followed by 99589(DR2) will come into view. However a break lower from DP will see UJ re-visit the 97 region with the first target at 97928(DS1) followed by 97109(DS2) and finally 96676(DS3). It would seem more likely that any move higher will be met with sellers restraining UJ from making any significant progress north. Therefore the bias for this pair would be to watch for resistance at higher key levels for shorting opportunities. </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-222838851208426935.post-35433650754474841592013-08-18T23:57:00.000-07:002013-10-09T06:59:01.577-07:00Market Analysis: Week Ending 18 August 2013<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhsfkAg3NDs83RwAqbLmfA7q1THdiYQ6UAXRAtVULxKFBoR3XBnpc-pXl__a4X9Xr6zBKNReCnwiVf1q2p1SfU7PabK9bhk9hvGGdzJdAMfuB_XzQagAWmp9r7XateDw1R_FmgW70pEMc/s1600/blogger+2systems.png" /></span></a><span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The majors took a ride against the USD last week, starting with a decline from previous high levels that suddenly found its footing mid week which saw price proceed back north retracing earlier losses and ending the week back towards the highs. Much of this was due to strength in domestic data, as well as movements in other markets, however it was the release of weaker than expected US figures particularly towards the last session that prompted the finish across the majors closing the NY session in positive territory. This week includes focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium which could potentially move the markets as discussions regarding US economy and its current challenges.</span></div>
<span style="color: #444444;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></b></span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<hr />
<span style="color: #444444;"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">GBPUSD</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjduKu1a47ThBlR73XQFvUZOLHUkt407GBnMZl2XKYl71L_15iQTHeNKwmCGacL7ZWeR0JBc2cf8YLjNTyXAYq7rN0DQp8uUjoggI27z44oJ8nRcLsrBWfWtLFtxHYt9rABYJPj2S5HjM0/s1600/gbpusdh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjduKu1a47ThBlR73XQFvUZOLHUkt407GBnMZl2XKYl71L_15iQTHeNKwmCGacL7ZWeR0JBc2cf8YLjNTyXAYq7rN0DQp8uUjoggI27z44oJ8nRcLsrBWfWtLFtxHYt9rABYJPj2S5HjM0/s400/gbpusdh1+16+aug.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Continuing on from the last NY session, GU opened the week slightly lower at 154886 from Friday’s close 15501, closing Monday’s trading with very little movement at 155003. Reaching a high of 155209, this level met with intra-day resistance which saw a rejection 2 candle later with formation of a bearish candle (high 155100 and low 154898) leading to a further breakdown to the next day reaching a low of 154468. From here , GU retraced a little higher to 15480 which once again served as level that attracted selling and saw an attempted drop of 53 pips to 154305 from a high of 154836 upon the release of data figures forming a bullish pinbar closing the candle at 154657. The next few hours saw a bit of hesitation as price to follow through from the signal of the inverted hammer however once reaching 154266 was met with buyers who pushed the price back north as high as 155104 closing the candle at 154596. This followed with a slight drop and then consolidation within a range between 154620 – 154359. This consolidation period then led to a bullish breakout in the NY session after the release of US data figures (low of 154219 and a high of 155053) which saw price settle higher around 15747 before ascending in an even incline to a high of 155464.</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
Retracing slightly from this new high , GU formed a new base above 155 (around 155157) which saw GU range at this level and find support upon a dip to a low of 154949. From here, GU continued to move back towards 155470 (previous intra-day top), settling within this new range until the 15th August where GU broke higher in the form of a bullish marubozu ( low of 155318 and high of 155875). GU then attempted 156 reaching a high of 155936 before sellers poised at 156 stepped in, taking GU back down 68 pips in one candle. However upon the approach of 155, buyers reversed the momentum forming a bullish pinbar (low of 155185 and high of 155669) which became confirmation of a continuation higher in the next two hourly candles. GU then broke out just under DP with an impressive range (low of 155769 and high of 156503) followed with price hovering above 156 supported at 156163 and capped at 156562. Moving to the close of the last NY session, GU kept contained above 156 (supported at 156067) , closing the week with a pinbar at 156304.</span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">In regards to economic data, it was not a positive start to the week which saw GU start with weaker CPI figures which came in at 2.0% vs an expected 2.2% and a weaker PPI Core Output figure 1.1% vs 1.2%. This did very little to inspire movement in GU who upon an initial reaction kept contained followed by further ranging at the lows in anticipation of upcoming data due the next day. The release of the Claimant Count Change figure which exceeded expectations producing a figure of -29.2k vs the forecasted -15k in combination with the outcome of the BOE minutes saw GU respond accordingly. Within the BOE meeting minutes, a unanimous vote in continuing asset purchasing was highlighted in accordance with the unemployment rate still remaining as an indicator for the basis of adjusting future stimulus. The MPC also voted unanimously in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged at 0.5% which also has been mentioned to be dependent upon improvements with the unemployment rate. </span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">The sharp movement seen in mid week trading can be contributed largely to the positive outcome of the Claimant Count Change figure, representing improvements in the employment sector and thus promoting more optimism geared towards the BOE's ability to achieve their target of 7% unemployment rate target from the current 7.8% which current stands. However, this objective is still forecasted as a 2016 outcome. In regards to the "forward guidance" strategy presented by Carney, this will be heavily dependent on inflation figures and will be re-assessed, should inflation move above 2.5% within a 24 month period. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">Since the 1st August, GU has been in an uptrend that has taken price from a low of 151009 to a high of 156562 (15th August). The break of 152039 on the 2nd August provided the first signal of the potential move higher to target 153 (low of the previous high range). A break of this top led to the next topping area of 154. Last week represented an extension of this bullish move that was mainly inspired by a positive reaction to of some strong economic data results mid week in support of the Pound. This was further fueled by weaker USD results at the end of the week which assisted in closing the highs. </span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">Currently GU sits at 156304 (WR1) which on the daily still shows GU well within range though following the previous bullish marubozu (low of 154956 and high of 156509), it is possible that GU may look to extend. A move back to 155970 may see GU supported and if this is the case then the next levels to watch for are primarily movements towards 156833(DR1), 157370(DR2) 158405(DR3). Alternatively, a break below 155970 will see 155372(DS1), 154330(DS2) and then 153792(DS3).</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjduKu1a47ThBlR73XQFvUZOLHUkt407GBnMZl2XKYl71L_15iQTHeNKwmCGacL7ZWeR0JBc2cf8YLjNTyXAYq7rN0DQp8uUjoggI27z44oJ8nRcLsrBWfWtLFtxHYt9rABYJPj2S5HjM0/s1600/gbpusdh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><br />
</b></span></span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<hr />
<h2>
<br /><br />
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">EURUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFgvIAUp7bhVCyW34lQe2-FHmmMfz9hwyXV2q5O5gsP3UwuzABzp5NCInleWwXComncNlHI09b0qFW6GG1x3VN6IgqTNjco74sYULiDrmnVZ7D56Ui2snfFClVA59Mf-IF5rGQqUy5W3I/s1600/eurusdh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFgvIAUp7bhVCyW34lQe2-FHmmMfz9hwyXV2q5O5gsP3UwuzABzp5NCInleWwXComncNlHI09b0qFW6GG1x3VN6IgqTNjco74sYULiDrmnVZ7D56Ui2snfFClVA59Mf-IF5rGQqUy5W3I/s400/eurusdh1+16+aug.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #444444;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">EU commenced the week with no change in sentiment, resuming the Asia session from the last NY session. Opening the week at 133189 (around 76%), price rejected at a top of 133434 with a bearish candle (low of 133243 and high of 133396). This paved the way to a continuation of its descent to a low of 132768, forming support at this level which then led to a bounce higher to 133117. Price then stayed around this level wedged between the high and low of range between 132894 and 133109. The next day saw EU break this range continuing the downtrend with determination creating a 5 candle move from 13310 to 132331. Price stayed at current levels with very little effort to refute the drop and remained in consolidation throughout the 14th August finally breaking higher back to 133110 on the 15th August. It remained at current levels until the NY session which saw EU break this range with a surge of selling momentum, taking price from a high of 133006 to a low of 132225 in one candle. Taking this lead, sellers then tried to continue lower reaching 1320 however found support when reaching 132051 in which major support was found, upon the rejection of the low, turning the candle into a bullish pinbar. <br />
<br />
This led to a prominent breakout (low of 132598 and a high of 1334552) taking EU back above 133 and ranging at the highs until Friday's trading session. The end of the week saw little effort to break from the highs while EU stayed contained within a range of between the high 133619 and 133255 before breaking out and creating a new high of 133792 which was immediately met with rejection. EU then fell from 133696 to 133103 before closing back at the 133254 (76%) closing around the same level it opened at the start of the week. </span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">In regards to data, it was a positive week for the Euro with the German ZEW survey showing an increased from 36.3 to 43 while CPI figures met with expectations along with Industrial production(YoY). German Q2 GDP figures also came in strong at 0.5% vs an expected -0.3% and 0.9% vs -1.6%.% while GDP for the Euro also showed an improvement at 0.3% vs -0.1% indicating that Europe is out of recession.</span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">When looking at the charts on the shorter time frames, the Euro still shows potential for another attempt higher though it would seem that all efforts will be met with sellers particularly position traders seeing value at the higher spectrum of the trading range. On the longer time frames, the rallies printed within the week still do not point to a strong bullish view of the Euro despite the momentary glee with the improvements in economic data. The start of the week saw EU resume the downtrend from the previous week finding support at 132330(23%). The CPI figures released did very little to inspire an instant reaction but instead saw EU range bound between 132395 - 132759 until the 15th August where EU initially experienced some pressure lower meeting a bottom of 132051 that rejected forming a pinbar. This led to the break higher in response to positive GDP figures that followed. The positive tone with data took EU back above 133 breaking 133255 (76%) and reaching 133622 upon renewed optimism. This extended further to 133793 on the 16th August. The fact that EU has closed the session sustained at 76%, does show that price has the potential to go either way from here depending on its reaction to this level. </span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">In the immediate term, an appeal for the Euro to continue its travel north is still in contention, should the optimism sparked from this week's GDP figures still be in effect. However looking at the situation objectively, it is still too early to be considering a strong bullish move even though the economy now looks to be holding more promise. Also in focus are issues regarding bailouts in Greece as well as political events in Germany that do not work in favour of current stability, therefore also holding some power to instigate a retracement or reversal upon uncertainty should these events evolve. Otherwise, it could work alongside building a case once another catalyst presents itself. </span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">Indeed when reflecting upon the longer timeframes, there is still no indication of a break of the range just yet. In the interim, movement will be dependent on just how much optimism has been fueled by the recent positive turn in the Eurozone given that from a macro perspective, the Eurozone will still need to produce more evidence of a strong recovery to support changes in monetary policy. Therefore, all movements north would more than likely be met with the appropriate reaction once a negative figure is released breaking this positive momentum. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Should EU break the high of 133793 the next level to watch is 134019(DR2). So far recently this level has managed to contain EU however if this breaks then 134583(DR3) is next in line followed by 134881(WR2) and then 135076(MR1). Alternatively, 133022(DP) may be a targeted support level to keep EU within the higher constraints of price movement. A break below this level will then see EU back towards the high 132 region followed by support at 132651(38%), 132470(23%) followed by low 132051. A break of this low will then re-visit 131538(WS2) followed by 131299(MP).</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFgvIAUp7bhVCyW34lQe2-FHmmMfz9hwyXV2q5O5gsP3UwuzABzp5NCInleWwXComncNlHI09b0qFW6GG1x3VN6IgqTNjco74sYULiDrmnVZ7D56Ui2snfFClVA59Mf-IF5rGQqUy5W3I/s1600/eurusdh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> </span><br />
<h2>
<b style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />
</span></b></h2>
<hr />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">AUDUSD</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQHBv2XQjbxovz3dJzRS651a2NZnumgaa8KcCPSxA-kuxgAMMVmmB9rz9mbLx7VsxmuDfj5lPODGTuEnYX90MqiygJm7JUmDFVuH6TvsSeJYGLoBre4gEyCeRymkTQpaEUeg3Mxb4OyiY/s1600/audusdh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQHBv2XQjbxovz3dJzRS651a2NZnumgaa8KcCPSxA-kuxgAMMVmmB9rz9mbLx7VsxmuDfj5lPODGTuEnYX90MqiygJm7JUmDFVuH6TvsSeJYGLoBre4gEyCeRymkTQpaEUeg3Mxb4OyiY/s400/audusdh1+16+aug.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was an interesting start for AU opening the week lower at 91867 from Friday's close 92018. Re-testing the highs of the last session at 92204, AU proceeded to retrace from the uptrend that commenced on the 2nd August, breaking lower from the high in two consecutive candles from 92092 to a low of 91513. Price then stayed around 91560 while testing lower at 91340 which rejected forming a pinbar that led to a small move higher back to 91866. Forming a top, a bearish candle formed (top of 81800 and low of 91513) led the way for a continuation to south reaching a bottom of 90996 which immediately saw AU spring back to the 91400 (61% area), where it ranged before falling further to a low of 90729. From here, AU then ranged at current levels between a range of 91143 and 90866 before breaking higher (90874 and high of 91324) while finding new support at these levels which led to another extension to creating a top at 91593. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /> <span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">Retracing back to 91181, AU found support around this area(DP and 50%) which inspired another move north breaking 91582 (76%), reaching a high of 91877. Immediately upon approach of 92, sellers intervened, taking AU from a high of 91855 to a low of 90578 in a bearish 5 candle move. Breaking DS1, yesterday's low of 90578 rejected, forming a prominent pinbar, closing at 90829 (23%), thus setting itself up for the bull rally that followed. On the 15th August, AU also found buyers at this level who stepped in around 90866 and took price back just above 91 (DP). Pausing here momentarily, AU then proceeded to ascend higher back towards yesterday's high reaching a new top of 92145 before falling back to 91676 which then saw price attempt another re-test towards 92, closing the last NY session at 91875. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /> <span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">AUD did not have much in the way of economic data to promote significant movement. However some figures released include NAB Business Confidence which came in negative at -3 vs.0 (previous result), while Westpac Consumer Confidence(Aug) came in at 3.5% vs. -0.1%. However, Consumer Inflation Expectations were slightly under printing 2.3% vs. 2.6 (previous result). Looking at the one hour chart, it shows AU starting the week declining from a high only to finish the week at the same level. Last week saw AUD rise in conjunction with the commodity markets. Iron-ore prices increased by 10% helping to boost AUD and the Westpac Consumer Confidence figure also assisted with the move back north on the 14th August. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
The question then would be "does this mean the AUD has turned momentarily bullish?" To date, the overall consensus regarding the AUD still paints a bearish view on the longer time frames. Even though AUD closed the week high, it has not really produced any new moves and is still trading well within range. Therefore, its upcoming movements will be dependent once again on risk appetite as well as movements in the other markets along with any significant figures on the domestic front. However, any non-domestic factors encouraging a move higher would still hold appeal for sellers positioned at higher key levels as the "bearish" picture is already painted. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /> <span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">For now, it is still possible to see AU continue north and re-test 93 region once again. Currently price has settled just under yesterday's high 91892, and the next levels to watch for are 92174(MR1), followed by 92586(DR2), 93268(WR1) and then 93295(DR3). A retracement back to 91582(76%) will be the determining level to set direction for the AUD. Should this level hold as support, then an attempt to reach the high targets will come into view. However a break below will see the next support level at 91266 followed by 91080(38%), 90888(23%) followed by 90658(DS1). A break below 90578(yesterday's low) will open up to AU making its way back towards to 89 and 88 region.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /></span> <span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <b style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><br />
</b></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQHBv2XQjbxovz3dJzRS651a2NZnumgaa8KcCPSxA-kuxgAMMVmmB9rz9mbLx7VsxmuDfj5lPODGTuEnYX90MqiygJm7JUmDFVuH6TvsSeJYGLoBre4gEyCeRymkTQpaEUeg3Mxb4OyiY/s1600/audusdh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<hr />
<h2>
<span style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">USDJPY</span></h2>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvzj-VJSbfRCS8WoWMC8oNsMsD3bTIO2R3tuL1AlXByjzjfEIXGvgEOFZkQnH7F_0XWv7sTvJWGm1n-t5PL0uul7G1DtcrVyCkOhJsPuXX8cWx0zJJY27bhW21hg3f9hRDblXTYlvJvRU/s1600/usdjpyh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvzj-VJSbfRCS8WoWMC8oNsMsD3bTIO2R3tuL1AlXByjzjfEIXGvgEOFZkQnH7F_0XWv7sTvJWGm1n-t5PL0uul7G1DtcrVyCkOhJsPuXX8cWx0zJJY27bhW21hg3f9hRDblXTYlvJvRU/s400/usdjpyh1+16+aug.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #444444;"><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Opening at 92326, UY resumed in consolidation from last week in fairly consistent movement first edging to 96552 and then to 96897 where it settled before retracing slightly back to 96552 in preparation for its next move. Finding support at this level, UJ then commenced a steady climb north from 96515 to 97490 where it took the time to pause before continuing higher closing the 13th Aug higher at 98179. UJ continued to maintain trading above 98 in what was a very uneventful movement over the course of the day which saw UJ contained in a consolidation between 98041 and 98317. Any attempts to slip from this range were brought back in line and was not until the 15th August that a retraction back to the higher region of 97 found support towards the mid 97 area at 97578 inspiring a break back above 98 to a new high of 98644. <br />
<br />
This level was immediately met with sellers within the next hour who took UJ back to the high 97 region confirming the high of 98644 as an intra-day top. UJ paused momentarily around these levels before continuing south reaching a low 97038 on the 16th August. From here UJ ranged at the lows before moving back north to a high of 97752 which saw UJ close the week at 97659.</span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">Economic data was rather light for the Yen last week, however the week started the release of Monetary Policy Meeting Notes which mentioned that exports showed improvement as did business fixed investment. Retail spending also showed an increase which indicates an improvement in consumer sentiment. This generally means that Japan is now starting to display signs towards stabilisation. In regards to data results, Industrial Production(YoY) came in at -4.6% vs -1.1%, while Machine Orders(YoY) were positive at 4.9% vs expected 2.4%. Foreign Investment also saw an improvement from ¥690.3B to ¥1614.8B. The US figures released also contributed largely to movements in UJ which saw Business inventories at the start of the week come in positive however retail sales were weaker at 0.2% vs previous 0.6% followed by more weaker numbers throughout the course of the week including the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Aug) which came in under expectations at 80 vs 85.5.</span><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="-webkit-box-shadow: none !important; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white;">Looking at UJ on the higher time frames, the daily shows UJ still contained within a range and 100 still continuing to act as an intermediary top. Only upon a break above this level will we see UJ move higher back towards the 102 -103 region. Currently price sits ranging just under DP at 97490 and break of yesterday’s low 9062 will see the next support level at 96645 followed by 96345(MS1), 96102(DS2) and then 95142(DS3). However a break above 97666(23%) will see UJ 98040(61%) and then 98264 (DR1). A break above this level will the re-visit 99195(DR2) and then 99784(DR3).</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br />
</span></span> </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvzj-VJSbfRCS8WoWMC8oNsMsD3bTIO2R3tuL1AlXByjzjfEIXGvgEOFZkQnH7F_0XWv7sTvJWGm1n-t5PL0uul7G1DtcrVyCkOhJsPuXX8cWx0zJJY27bhW21hg3f9hRDblXTYlvJvRU/s1600/usdjpyh1+16+aug.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br />
</span></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br />
</span></div>
LiveForexTrading.infohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15994832851389458068noreply@blogger.com0